Flood Watch 1, NWS Louisville, KY

Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Perry County, IN, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

288 
WGUS63 KLMK 270928
FFALMK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
428 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

INZ083-KYZ032-271730-
/O.EXA.KLMK.FA.A.0001.210228T0600Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dubois-Trimble-
Including the cities of Bedford, Jasper, and Milton
428 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Louisville has expanded the

* Flood Watch to include portions of Indiana and north central 
  Kentucky, including the following areas, in Indiana, Dubois. In 
  north central Kentucky, Trimble.

* From late tonight through Monday morning

* Heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms will spread into the 
  area from the south late tonight and persist through Sunday 
  morning. Rainfall totals of around 2 inches with locally higher 
  amounts will be possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause excess runoff and localized flooding 
  issues in the Watch area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be 
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your local media for the latest 
information.

&&

$$

INZ084-089>092-KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
081-082-271730-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0001.210228T0600Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-
Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-
Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-
Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of La Grange, Lancaster, Russellville, 
Frankfort, Albany, Jeffersonville, Bowling Green, Brandenburg, 
Nicholasville, Liberty, Richmond, Providence, Louisville, Horse 
Cave, Leitchfield, Cynthiana, Danville, Jamestown, Scottsville, 
Glasgow, Versailles, Georgetown, Taylorsville, Winchester, 
Burkesville, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Paris, Hartford, Springfield, 
Hodgenville, Campbellsville, Harrodsburg, Shepherdsville, Stanford, 
Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, Franklin, English, Columbia, Tell 
City, Brownsville, New Albany, New Castle, Lawrenceburg, Lewisport, 
Edmonton, Tompkinsville, Lebanon, Corydon, Morgantown, Shelbyville, 
Elizabethtown, and Carlisle
428 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021 /328 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY 
MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Flood Watch for portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. 

* From late tonight through Monday morning

* Moderate to heavy rainfall along with scattered thunderstorms will 
  spread north across the region tonight into Sunday morning. Heavy 
  rainfall and thunderstorms are then possible through Sunday as a 
  cold front sinks southeast across the area. Rainfall totals of 2 
  to 3 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible due 
  to thunderstorms.

* Heavy rainfall may cause excess runoff and localized flooding 
  issues in the Watch area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be 
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your local media for the latest 
information.

&&

$$

EBW

262 
WGUS63 KLMK 271655
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1155 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

INZ083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-280500-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0001.210228T0600Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-
Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of La Grange, Lancaster, Russellville, 
Frankfort, Albany, Jeffersonville, Bowling Green, Brandenburg, 
Nicholasville, Liberty, Richmond, Providence, Louisville, Horse 
Cave, Leitchfield, Cynthiana, Danville, Jamestown, Scottsville, 
Glasgow, Versailles, Georgetown, Taylorsville, Winchester, 
Burkesville, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Paris, Hartford, Springfield, 
Hodgenville, Campbellsville, Harrodsburg, Milton, Bedford, 
Shepherdsville, Stanford, Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, 
Franklin, English, Tompkinsville, Columbia, Tell City, Brownsville, 
New Albany, New Castle, Lawrenceburg, Lewisport, Edmonton, 
Morgantown, Lebanon, Corydon, Jasper, Shelbyville, Elizabethtown, 
and Carlisle
1155 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021 /1055 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY 
MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southern Indiana, and all of central Kentucky.

* From late tonight through Monday morning

* Moderate to heavy rainfall will spread south to north late tonight 
  and continue Sunday morning. Additional rainfall around 2 inches 
  is likely, with localized 3 inch amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause excess runoff and localized flooding in 
  the Watch area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be 
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your local media for the latest 
information.

&&

$$

RAS

809 
WGUS63 KLMK 280302
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1002 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

INZ083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-281115-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0001.210228T0600Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-
Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of La Grange, Lancaster, Russellville, 
Frankfort, Albany, Jeffersonville, Bowling Green, Brandenburg, 
Nicholasville, Liberty, Richmond, Providence, Louisville, Horse 
Cave, Leitchfield, Cynthiana, Danville, Jamestown, Scottsville, 
Glasgow, Versailles, Georgetown, Taylorsville, Winchester, 
Burkesville, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Paris, Hartford, Springfield, 
Hodgenville, Campbellsville, Harrodsburg, Milton, Bedford, 
Shepherdsville, Stanford, Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, 
Franklin, English, Tompkinsville, Columbia, Tell City, Brownsville, 
New Albany, New Castle, Lawrenceburg, Lewisport, Edmonton, 
Morgantown, Lebanon, Corydon, Jasper, Shelbyville, Elizabethtown, 
and Carlisle
1002 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021 /902 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY 
MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southern Indiana and all of central Kentucky.

* Through Monday morning

* Moderate to heavy rainfall will spread south to north late tonight 
  and continue Sunday morning. Additional rainfall around 2 inches 
  is likely, with localized 3 inch amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall may cause excess runoff and localized flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be 
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your local media for the latest 
information.

&&

$$

13

831 
WGUS63 KLMK 281013
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
513 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

INZ083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-282100-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-
Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of La Grange, Lancaster, Russellville, 
Frankfort, Albany, Jeffersonville, Bowling Green, Brandenburg, 
Nicholasville, Liberty, Richmond, Providence, Louisville, Horse 
Cave, Leitchfield, Cynthiana, Danville, Jamestown, Scottsville, 
Glasgow, Versailles, Georgetown, Taylorsville, Winchester, 
Burkesville, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Paris, Hartford, Springfield, 
Hodgenville, Campbellsville, Harrodsburg, Milton, Bedford, 
Shepherdsville, Stanford, Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, 
Franklin, English, Tompkinsville, Columbia, Tell City, Brownsville, 
New Albany, New Castle, Lawrenceburg, Lewisport, Edmonton, 
Morgantown, Lebanon, Corydon, Jasper, Shelbyville, Elizabethtown, 
and Carlisle
513 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /413 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southern Indiana and all of central Kentucky.

* Through Monday morning

* Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue today and 
  tonight. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is likely with 
  locally higher amounts possible due to thunderstorms and 
  persistent areas of rain.

* Heavy rainfall may cause excess runoff and localized flooding. 
  Flash flooding is possible from excessive rainfall associated with 
  persistent areas of rain and thunderstorms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be 
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your local media for the latest 
information.

&&

$$

BTN

619 
WGUS63 KLMK 282024
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
324 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

INZ083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-011200-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-
Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of La Grange, Lancaster, Russellville, 
Frankfort, Albany, Jeffersonville, Bowling Green, Brandenburg, 
Nicholasville, Liberty, Richmond, Providence, Louisville, Horse 
Cave, Leitchfield, Cynthiana, Danville, Jamestown, Scottsville, 
Glasgow, Versailles, Georgetown, Taylorsville, Winchester, 
Burkesville, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Paris, Hartford, Springfield, 
Hodgenville, Campbellsville, Harrodsburg, Milton, Bedford, 
Shepherdsville, Stanford, Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, 
Franklin, English, Tompkinsville, Columbia, Tell City, Brownsville, 
New Albany, New Castle, Lawrenceburg, Lewisport, Edmonton, 
Morgantown, Lebanon, Corydon, Jasper, Shelbyville, Elizabethtown, 
and Carlisle
324 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /224 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southern Indiana and all of central Kentucky. 

* Through Monday morning

* Most of the area has already received 2 to 3 inches of rain, with 
  locally higher amounts. Heavy rainfall continues across portions 
  of south central Kentucky, with another wave of showers and 
  possible thunderstorms expected area-wide this evening.

* Flooding is ongoing, and additional rainfall through tonight could 
  quickly result in new or more significant flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be 
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your local media for the latest 
information.

&&

$$

RAS

142 
WGUS63 KLMK 010322
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1022 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

INZ083-084-089-KYZ023-026-010430-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Hancock-Ohio-
Including the cities of Hawesville, Hartford, Jasper, English, Tell 
City, and Lewisport
1022 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /922 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for portions of Indiana and northwest Kentucky, 
including the following areas, in Indiana, Crawford, Dubois and 
Perry. In northwest Kentucky, Hancock and Ohio has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled.

$$

INZ090>092-KYZ024-025-027>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-011130-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Breckinridge-Meade-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-
Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-
Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-
Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-
Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of La Grange, Lancaster, Russellville, 
Frankfort, Albany, Jeffersonville, Bowling Green, Brandenburg, 
Nicholasville, Liberty, Richmond, Providence, Louisville, Horse 
Cave, Tompkinsville, Cynthiana, Danville, Jamestown, Scottsville, 
Glasgow, Versailles, Georgetown, Taylorsville, Winchester, 
Burkesville, Leitchfield, Hardinsburg, Paris, Springfield, 
Hodgenville, Campbellsville, Harrodsburg, Milton, Bedford, 
Shepherdsville, Stanford, Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, 
Franklin, Columbia, Brownsville, New Albany, New Castle, 
Lawrenceburg, Edmonton, Lebanon, Corydon, Morgantown, Shelbyville, 
Elizabethtown, and Carlisle
1022 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /922 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST/6 AM CST/ MONDAY...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Indiana and central Kentucky.

* Until 7 AM EST/6 AM CST/ Monday

* Most of the area has already received 2 to 4 inches of rain, with 
  locally higher amounts. Light to moderate rainfall continues 
  across portions of the region.

* Flooding is ongoing, and additional rainfall through tonight may 
  exacerbate areas of flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be 
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your local media for the latest 
information.

&&

$$

13

021 
WGUS63 KLMK 010919
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
419 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

INZ090>092-KYZ024-025-027>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-011030-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Breckinridge-Meade-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-
Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-
Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-
Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-
Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of La Grange, Lancaster, Russellville, 
Frankfort, Albany, Jeffersonville, Bowling Green, Brandenburg, 
Nicholasville, Liberty, Richmond, Providence, Louisville, Horse 
Cave, Tompkinsville, Cynthiana, Danville, Jamestown, Scottsville, 
Glasgow, Versailles, Georgetown, Taylorsville, Winchester, 
Burkesville, Leitchfield, Hardinsburg, Paris, Springfield, 
Hodgenville, Campbellsville, Harrodsburg, Milton, Bedford, 
Shepherdsville, Stanford, Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, 
Franklin, Columbia, Brownsville, New Albany, New Castle, 
Lawrenceburg, Edmonton, Lebanon, Corydon, Morgantown, Shelbyville, 
Elizabethtown, and Carlisle
419 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 /319 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for portions of south central Indiana and Kentucky 
has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. The heavy rain has ended across the 
watch area. Areal flood warnings remain in effect for portions 
central Kentucky. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

BTN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1242 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Plenty of dBZs showing up on radar but it has taken some time for
raindrops to battle dry low level air and finally make it to the
ground. However, light rain has begun over southern and western
Kentucky and will continue to spread northeastward today. Amounts
will be light, around a tenth or two of an inch. Temperatures will
rise through the 40s. Current forecast has this all well in hand,
and no significant changes are planned at this time.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving east over KS/OK early this morning. Just southeast of this
feature, strong upper level divergence is occurring in the right-
entrance region of a 160+ kt upper jet streak centered over the
Upper Ohio Valley. A sfc boundary is draped from Texas eastward
across the Deep South. A very moist airmass and robust isentropic
lift are contributing to a band of showers and thunderstorms on the
north side of the sfc boundary, from northeast TX across AR/northern
MS and AL. Rain chances will increase today from south to north
across central KY and southern IN, but the thunderstorms and
heaviest showers will remain south of the TN border.

The atmosphere remains fairly dry due to the proximity of the sfc
high, with PW values around 0.4 inches. The upper wave currently
over OK is forecast to cross the forecast area today, and low-level
ridging quickly moves off to the east. 850 mb winds veer southerly
today and increase throughout the day. Developing southerly moisture
return will allow PW values to climb to 0.8 inches. Light to
moderate rain is expected to spread into southern KY during the mid
to late morning hours, with rain chances continuing to spread north
across the rest of central KY and southern IN in the afternoon. Rain
chances will generally be more scattered along and north of the Ohio
River, with the highest rain chances further south and east. Daytime
rainfall could reach a tenth of an inch near the WK/BG Parkways,
with up to a quarter inch south of the Bluegrass Parkway. Highs
today will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

More focused, stronger isentropic lift arrives in southern KY late
tonight into early Saturday on the nose of a 40 kt southwesterly
LLJ. Strong low-level moisture transport occurs from southwest to
northeast across Middle TN this evening, nosing into south-central
KY late tonight. 1.2 to 1.3 inch PW values nose into south-central
KY between 06-12z Sat. Heavier rain totaling 0.50-1.00 inches in a
12-hr period through 12z Sat looks possible south of a line from
Scottsville to Columbia (highest QPF in the Lake Cumberland region).
Lows tonight are expected to range through the 40s.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

...Significant Heavy Rain Possible Over the Weekend...

Saturday

Weak area of high pressure builds in over Kentucky during the day
Saturday. This will bring a brief "lull" in the heavy rain. There
will be a few lingering rain showers across the southeastern portion
of the county warning area along the Lake Cumberland region with
precipitation amounts a tenth of an inch or less.

Saturday night - Sunday night

Ingredients remain in place for heavy rains for the second half of
the weekend. Strong southwesterly LLJ of 50-60kts lifts in across
central KY/southern Indiana under the right entrance region of the
upper level jet. Model trends continue to push the heavier band of
rain more northward along the Ohio River across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky Saturday night into Sunday morning. PWAT values
will range from 1.25 to almost 1.50 across central KY into southern
Indiana. This period looks to be where we experience our highest
rainfall rates with a half an inch across southern KY to near 2
inches along the Ohio River for northern KY/southern IN by Sunday
morning. While a rumble of thunder can't be ruled out, instability
will be weak and the atmosphere remains very saturated.

During the day Sunday, a cold front will slowly start to push the
heavy rain band off to the south-southeast south of the parkways
into the Lake Cumberland region. An additional three quarters of an
inch to just over an inch is possible across southern KY. Rain
showers will taper off Sunday night into Monday morning. Total
rainfall will range from 1.5 inch in southern Indiana with around
2.5 to 2 inches across central KY and up to 3+ inches across our
southeastern corner of our CWA.

Monday - Thursday

Models continue to differ on how to handle things going into next
week. Other than some lingering light rain in the Lake Cumberland
region early Monday morning, Monday and Monday night should be dry
with high pressure building in from the northwest.

Beyond Monday the models really diverge as the GFS wants to keep us
dry for most of the week with the exception of a system coming in
Thursday night into Friday. On the other side, the EURO has a system
coming in Wednesday into Thursday but dry for the end of the week
and into the weekend. For now, due to the uncertainty, keeping
chance of precipitation in the forecast Tuesday and Thursday until
we see a little more agreement in the model trends. Temperatures
trend to be near or even slightly above normal in the low to mid 50s
through the week for highs and mid 30s for lows with the exception
of Tuesday morning where lows could be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Light rain will spread through the region this afternoon as a
weakening upper wave crosses the area. Showers and possibly some
isolated thunder will continue through the night but the greatest
concentration of the most significant rainfall should stay just
southeast of the TAF sites.

Of perhaps more import is the large expanse of MVFR/IFR ceilings
stretching from the mid-Mississippi Valley all the way back to the
Texas Hill Country. These low ceilings will plague OH/TN Valley
airports from early this evening through tomorrow morning.

A low level jet will flow into the TN Valley tonight but should keep
away from the TAF sites enough that we can keep LLWS out of the
forecast for now.

&&

.Hydrology...
Issued at 422 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Antecedent conditions:

The first two waves will have produced light to moderate rains. The
snow pack is gone and Kentucky Mesonet data shows soil moisture
briefly spiked, but has since stabilized below 50 percent (below 40
percent in some areas). Soil temperatures in the top 40 inches are
all well above freezing, so absorption won't be hindered by frozen
ground.

Total rainfall from Friday through Sunday night should range from
1.50-2.50 inches in southern Indiana and 2-2.50 inches in central
Kentucky. The Lake Cumberland region in south-central KY could see 3-
4 inches.

Rivers...

Smaller streams have crested, and the Ohio above Louisville has
begun to crest, suggesting that the water from the snowmelt
continues to work its way through the system. By the time the
heaviest rain arrives, it will be almost a week since the last of
the snowmelt, which should work in our favor.

The most likely area for any minor flooding next week should be
along the lower Green and Barren rivers where levels are already up
and that's where the heaviest rain is currently predicted to fall.
The Salt, Rough, and Kentucky will have to be watched closely as
well.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...13
Short Term...EBW
Long Term...BTN
Aviation...13
Hydrology...13/EBW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1141 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-271645-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
1141 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 /1041 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Waves of soaking rains are expected early Saturday through the
weekend. Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night could range from
1.50 to 2.50 inches across southern Indiana with central Kentucky
ranging from 2 to 3 inches, and a possible 3 to 4 inches in the Lake
Cumberland region. Minor flooding is expected late this weekend into
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested Saturday night into Sunday.

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