Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Louisville, KY

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

774 
WGUS63 KLMK 301900
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

.Heavy rain is expected across much of Kentucky Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the remnants of Ida interact with a stalled
front. Expect total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally
higher amounts possible. Briefly intense rainfall rates could 
lead to flash flooding.

KYZ024>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-310300-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.210831T1200Z-210901T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-
Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-
Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-
Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, 
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, 
La Grange, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, 
Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, 
Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, 
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, 
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, 
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, 
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, 
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, 
and Albany
300 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 /200 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky, 
  northwest Kentucky, and south central Kentucky, including the 
  following areas, in east central Kentucky, Anderson, Bourbon, 
  Boyle, Clark, Fayette, Franklin, Garrard, Harrison, Jessamine, 
  Madison, Mercer, Nicholas, Scott, and Woodford. In north 
  central Kentucky, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Hardin, Henry, 
  Jefferson, Larue, Meade, Nelson, Oldham, Shelby, Spencer, and 
  Washington. In northwest Kentucky, Ohio. In south central 
  Kentucky, Adair, Allen, Barren, Butler, Casey, Clinton, 
  Cumberland, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hart, Lincoln, Logan, 
  Marion, Metcalfe, Monroe, Russell, Simpson, Taylor, and 
  Warren. 

* From Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning

* Heavy rain expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Localized 
  flash flooding is possible where the most intense rainfall 
  occurs. 

* A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that 
  lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous 
  situation. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

CG

227 
WGUS63 KLMK 310127
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
827 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

.Heavy rain is expected across much of Kentucky Tuesday into early 
Wednesday morning as the remnants of Ida interact with a stalled 
front. Total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, and briefly intense rainfall 
rates could lead to flash flooding.

KYZ024>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-311000-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.210831T1200Z-210901T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-
Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of La Grange, Lancaster, Russellville, 
Frankfort, Albany, Paris, Bowling Green, Brandenburg, Nicholasville, 
Liberty, Richmond, Providence, Louisville, Horse Cave, 
Tompkinsville, Cynthiana, Danville, Jamestown, Glasgow, Springfield, 
Georgetown, Taylorsville, Winchester, Burkesville, Leitchfield, 
Hardinsburg, Hodgenville, Hartford, Versailles, Harrodsburg, 
Shepherdsville, Stanford, Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, 
Franklin, Columbia, Brownsville, Campbellsville, New Castle, 
Lawrenceburg, Edmonton, Lebanon, Scottsville, Morgantown, 
Shelbyville, Elizabethtown, and Carlisle
827 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 /927 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky, 
  northwest Kentucky and south central Kentucky, including the 
  following areas, in east central Kentucky, Anderson, Bourbon, 
  Boyle, Clark, Fayette, Franklin, Garrard, Harrison, Jessamine, 
  Madison, Mercer, Nicholas, Scott and Woodford. In north central 
  Kentucky, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Hardin, Henry, Jefferson, Larue, 
  Meade, Nelson, Oldham, Shelby, Spencer and Washington. In 
  northwest Kentucky, Ohio. In south central Kentucky, Adair, Allen, 
  Barren, Butler, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Grayson, 
  Green, Hart, Lincoln, Logan, Marion, Metcalfe, Monroe, Russell, 
  Simpson, Taylor and Warren.

* From 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

* Heavy rain expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Localized flash 
  flooding is possible where the most intense rainfall occurs.

* A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
  flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

DM

509 
WGUS63 KLMK 310735
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
235 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

KYZ024>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-312100-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.210831T1200Z-210901T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-
Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of La Grange, Lancaster, Russellville, 
Frankfort, Albany, Paris, Bowling Green, Brandenburg, Nicholasville, 
Liberty, Richmond, Providence, Louisville, Horse Cave, 
Tompkinsville, Cynthiana, Danville, Jamestown, Glasgow, Springfield, 
Georgetown, Taylorsville, Winchester, Burkesville, Leitchfield, 
Hardinsburg, Hodgenville, Hartford, Versailles, Harrodsburg, 
Shepherdsville, Stanford, Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, 
Franklin, Columbia, Brownsville, Campbellsville, New Castle, 
Lawrenceburg, Edmonton, Lebanon, Scottsville, Morgantown, 
Shelbyville, Elizabethtown, and Carlisle
235 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 /335 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ THIS 
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky, 
  northwest Kentucky and south central Kentucky, including the 
  following areas, in east central Kentucky, Anderson, Bourbon, 
  Boyle, Clark, Fayette, Franklin, Garrard, Harrison, Jessamine, 
  Madison, Mercer, Nicholas, Scott and Woodford. In north central 
  Kentucky, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Hardin, Henry, Jefferson, Larue, 
  Meade, Nelson, Oldham, Shelby, Spencer and Washington. In 
  northwest Kentucky, Ohio. In south central Kentucky, Adair, Allen, 
  Barren, Butler, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Grayson, 
  Green, Hart, Lincoln, Logan, Marion, Metcalfe, Monroe, Russell, 
  Simpson, Taylor and Warren.

* From 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ this morning through Wednesday morning.

* Heavy rain is expected today and tonight. Localized flash flooding 
  is possible where the most intense rainfall occurs, and if heavy 
  rain falls on areas that already received heavy rain on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

RAS

978 
WGUS63 KLMK 311917
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
217 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

KYZ024>031-061-062-070>072-312030-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210901T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-
Butler-Edmonson-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Including the cities of La Grange, Shepherdsville, Brandenburg, 
Bowling Green, Russellville, Leitchfield, Hardinsburg, Providence, 
Louisville, Hartford, Brownsville, Elizabethtown, Morgantown, and 
Franklin
217 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 /317 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central Kentucky, 
northwest Kentucky and south central Kentucky, including the 
following areas, in north central Kentucky, Breckinridge, Bullitt, 
Hardin, Jefferson, Meade and Oldham. In northwest Kentucky, Ohio. In 
south central Kentucky, Butler, Edmonson, Grayson, Logan, Simpson 
and Warren has been cancelled.

Though light rain will continue this evening, the threat of heavy 
rain and flooding has diminished

$$

KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082-011200-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210901T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Lancaster, Albany, Frankfort, Paris, 
Nicholasville, Liberty, Richmond, Horse Cave, Cynthiana, Danville, 
Jamestown, Glasgow, Springfield, Georgetown, Taylorsville, 
Winchester, Burkesville, Tompkinsville, Hodgenville, Versailles, 
Harrodsburg, Stanford, Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, Columbia, 
Campbellsville, New Castle, Lawrenceburg, Edmonton, Lebanon, 
Scottsville, Shelbyville, and Carlisle
317 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 /217 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky and 
  south central Kentucky, including the following areas, in east 
  central Kentucky, Anderson, Bourbon, Boyle, Clark, Fayette, 
  Franklin, Garrard, Harrison, Jessamine, Madison, Mercer, Nicholas, 
  Scott and Woodford. In north central Kentucky, Henry, Larue, 
  Nelson, Shelby, Spencer and Washington. In south central Kentucky, 
  Adair, Allen, Barren, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Green, Hart, 
  Lincoln, Marion, Metcalfe, Monroe, Russell and Taylor.

* Through Wednesday morning.

* Tropical moisture associated with Ida will continue to move 
  through the region.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

13

131 
WGUS63 KLMK 312310
FFALMK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Louisville KY
710 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082-010015-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210901T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Lancaster, Albany, Frankfort, Paris, 
Nicholasville, Liberty, Richmond, Horse Cave, Cynthiana, Danville, 
Jamestown, Glasgow, Springfield, Georgetown, Taylorsville, 
Winchester, Burkesville, Tompkinsville, Hodgenville, Versailles, 
Harrodsburg, Stanford, Greensburg, Lexington, Bardstown, Columbia, 
Campbellsville, New Castle, Lawrenceburg, Edmonton, Lebanon, 
Scottsville, Shelbyville, and Carlisle
710 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 /610 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Kentucky has been 
cancelled early.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat given light to moderate rainfall rates. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

$$

DM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
132 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

In the near term, convection across southern Kentucky continues to
drift northward.  Over the 15-20 minutes, we've seen it start to
weaken and gust out.  We expect this activity to last for another
hour and mainly affect Logan/Simpson/Warren/Allen counties.  Some
additional showers and storms will continue to move northeast
through Adair county and may get into southern Taylor, and perhaps
Casey county prior to diminishing.  None of the storms are severe,
but brief heavy rainfall, some gusty winds, and lightning will be
the primary threats.

Moving to the overnight period, a surface cold front extending from
northern Missouri into central IL continues to move slowly
southward.  Regional radars show some convection firing along it.
Earlier model runs in the day suggested that convection would
continue to grow along the front and drift southward overnight,
possibly getting into our southern Indiana counties.  Much of the
guidance has backed off this idea now and really keep the best
chances of storms up near the I-70 corridor.  Given the relative
good short term agreement, will back off PoPs tonight south of the
Ohio River, but will maintain at least a slight chance of
showers/storms across our southern IN counties.  Overnight lows will
range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Moving into tomorrow, we should start off mostly dry, though I can't
rule out some renegade showers/storms in the morning across the
region.  Convective activity should increase during the afternoon
hours as the frontal boundary to the north pushes down into the
region and tropical moisture from Ida works northward into the
region.

There is a signal in the late afternoon data (Euro and 18Z GFS) that
suggest we could see the development of a Predecessor Rain Event
(PRE) across portions of the area tomorrow afternoon.  A PRE is an
organized area of heavy rainfall that develops in connection with
water vapor originating in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone, but
this area of rainfall is separated from the tropical cyclone by a
large distance.  In general, PRE's are difficult for forecast models
to predict correctly, but there are several precursors that are
being predicted by the models for tomorrow afternoon.

We'll be within the right rear entrance region of a 200 hPa jet, we
will be downstream of an approaching 700 hPa trough axis, we'll have
a low-level front approaching from the north and we will be on the
periphery of an approaching tropical plume of moisture.  Lastly, the
925 hPa theta-e ridge axis is forecast to be east of the area, along
the Apps.

Indeed, the 18Z GFS, the 12Z Euro, and even tonight's 00Z HRRR runs
suggest that thunderstorms will develop across central/southern
Indiana tomorrow afternoon. These storms may slowly drift southward
with individual cells moving eastward.  This could result in a swath
of training thunderstorms. With that plume of tropical moisture
advecting in from the south, PWATs should surge above 2 inches. This
would result in storms containing very heavy rainfall that could
result in localized flash flooding. As noted above, numerical models
often struggle with the placement of PREs, but given the pre-cursors
outlined above, it stands to reason that we may have a good shot at
getting one of these somewhere along and north of the I-64 corridor.

As of this writing there is still too much uncertainty to delineate
where widespread flash flooding could occur.  While I do think the
area at most risk is mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor, it
remains uncertain if the highest risk will be across southern IN or
a little further downstream across SE IN, southern OH, and perhaps
into WV.

This activity should weaken through the late evening hours, but
additional convection associated with the actual remnants of Ida
will then move into southern KY and spread northward across the
state overnight and into Tuesday.

The late afternoon model tends have continued to push the axis of
heavier rainfall with the remnants of Ida to the east.  This is
likely due to the westerlies being a little stronger than earlier
predicted which is allowing the center of the system to pass a bit
more to our south and east.  As of now, the best chances of heavier
rainfall still look to occur on Tuesday and continue through
Wednesday.  The axis of highest QPF looks to favor areas east of a
Bowling Green to Lexington line.  No headlines will be issued with
this forecast.  However, if model trends continue to hold, a Flash
Flood Watch for portions of the region will be considered on the
overnight shift.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Tonight, an approaching cold front, that is currently pushing
southeast through southeast Iowa, will continue pushing a line of
showers and thunderstorms towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Chances of
precipitation will continue increasing across the northern half of
the CWA during the overnight hours. This isn't too exciting by
itself, but as the front begins to interact with the remnants of
Hurricane Ida, things get more interesting. As the outer bands of
Ida push moisture northward, the moisture will fan out along the
front and cause moisture to pool. PWATs will climb to around 2.5",
and with plenty of instability and warm temperatures, expect
efficient rainfall. This will likely result in very high rain rates
with thunderstorms along this front tomorrow afternoon. Flooding
could become an issue if showers remain over an area too long. Still
believe the areas along and north of Interstate 64 are most likely
to see these heavier showers.

After collaboration with neighboring offices and WPC, we decided
against a Flash Flood Watch. Recent dry conditions have caused low
river levels and dry soils. Flash flood guidance remains over 3" for
3 and 6 hour rainfalls across many of the possibly affected areas.
These will be evaluated during later shifts.

Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures will drop into the low to
mid 70s with a few rural areas possibly seeing the upper 60s.
Tomorrow, clouds continue to build through the day as precipitation
increases, but even with the clouds and rain temperatures should
reach the mid to upper 80s.

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...Heavy Rainfall and Minor Flooding Possible Monday Evening into
Early Wednesday...

Area of showers and storms with heavy downpours Monday afternoon
ahead of Ida and south of a cold front draped from northern Missouri
through central Illinois to northern Indiana will continue into the
evening hours over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
PWATS over 2" pooling along the length of the lower Ohio Valley
along with very weak shear indicates locally heavy downpours can be
expected.

There is good model agreement among operational runs and ensemble
envelopes over the first 72 hours of the forecast period taking the
center of Ida through the Tennessee Valley, putting us on the left
side of the track, which is typically where the heaviest rain occurs
in this pattern. We'll also be located near the right entrance
region of an upper jet streak over the Great Lakes and that east-
west front over the Midwest will still be drifting towards us from
the north, eventually meeting up with Ida. Soundings show almost no
CAPE and continued weak shear as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday
with deep warm cloud depths of 13-15 thousand feet. Precipitable
water values will continue over two inches, especially south of the
Ohio River.

There continues to be higher confidence in placement of the heaviest
rainfall amounts (storm total Monday evening through early Wednesday
morning) than there is in amounts. It still appears that the
heaviest rain will fall south of the Ohio River, especially southern
and eastern sections of central Kentucky. Recent progs have sped the
system up slightly, so where we previously had totals of 4-6" they
are now more in the 3-5" range. Still plenty of rain! Also it is
important to note that rainfall rate can be just as important, if
not moreso, as a flooding threat. If we do realize flooding issues
Tuesday-Wednesday it will likely be local flooding from intense
rates, and perhaps training, rather than from the overall rainfall
totals.

One thing that we do have working in our favor is antecedent
conditions. While there have been spotty summertime showers and
storms with heavy downpours recently, overall we have been on the
dry side...especially in the Lake Cumberland region and southern
Bluegrass where some of the heaviest rainfall is expected. The
Drought Monitor shows some areas of D0 across southern Indiana,
extreme north central Kentucky and southern Kentucky. Ensemble river
forecasts from the NAEFS and HEFS actually show very little river
flooding later this week...with a few spots possibly going into
minor flood. Looking at the year as a whole, rainfall has been near
to slightly above normal, which has allowed for plenty of green,
healthy vegetation that can help to soak up rainfall.

So, given all of the above, and after having spoken with surrounding
offices, will continue to advertise heavy rain in the forecast but
will hold off on a watch for now for the early Tuesday - early
Wednesday time period. Of course, each shift will continue to look
at things and make decisions accordingly. How much rain we get
tomorrow afternoon and evening, and where exactly is falls, will
have some bearing on choices regarding watch issuance and placement.

...After Ida...

The rest of the forecast looks comparatively quiet as high pressure
noses down from Canada and translates to the East Coast. We may
start to see another system move in by the weekend...but for now
will keep PoPs low.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

Expect the weather to become increasingly active through the TAF
period as a frontal boundary sinks southward towards the area and
Ida moves closer to the TN Valley. Mostly dry weather expected for
the overnight period and into Monday morning, although a few
isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out. Convection should then
increase as we move into the afternoon and evening hours, with the
best chances of rainfall being along and north of I-64 (so
HNB/SDF/LEX). Within stronger storms, expect torrential rainfall and
gusty winds to be possible along with brief reductions in CIGs and
VIS. Precip chances will then continue into Monday night as Ida
edges closer.

Winds through Monday afternoon will generally be out of the S/SW at
5-10 kts then becoming more variable by the end of the period.

&&

.Hydrology...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

The remnants of Hurricane Ida are expected to bring heavy rain to
the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through at least Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday. In addition to local flooding during the
heavy rain, minor river flooding may follow the rain for a few days
later this week.

At this time the forecast calls for 3-5" of rain generally along and
south of the Ohio River...with 2-4" possible north into southern
Indiana. Today's 6hr FFG values are 2-4", and 1hr values are 1.5-
2.5". Flash flood guidance numbers are fairly uniform across the
area. Those numbers will likely change as we experience shower and
thunderstorm activity this afternoon through Monday evening ahead of
the main event. It's also important to keep in mind that flash flood
guidance is the amount of rain, over a given time period, that will
cause small streams to flood. Locations with poor drainage, low
spots, and urban cityscapes may begin to flood at values below flash
flood guidance.

Fortunately most area rivers are very low as we go into this event.
Nevertheless, rivers will have to be watched as this system moves
through. Right now the most likely basins to experience heavy rain
and potential minor flooding include the Cumberland, Barren, Green,
Rolling Fork, Salt, Kentucky, and Licking. Heavy rains are expected
in the upper Ohio basin and may cause a reaction in the Ohio River
in central Kentucky as the water moves downstream. Contributions
from tributaries flowing into the river from the south will add to
the overall volume of water in the mainstem Ohio.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

The remnants of Hurricane Ida are expected to bring heavy rain to
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday, possibly lingering into
Wednesday in eastern parts of the region. Daily rainfall records may
be in jeopardy.

Rainfall Records for August 31:
Bowling Green 1.83" in 2017 (ahead of former Hurricane Harvey)
Lexington 2.09" in 2013
Louisville 1.21" in 2018

The wettest August day on record at Bowling Green is 3.53" set on
the 5th in 1975.

The rainfall record for Lexington on September 1 is 2.04" set in
2017 (ahead of former Hurricane Harvey)

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...MJ
Short Term...KDW
Long Term....13
Aviation...JML
Hydrology....13
Climate......13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
946 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-310200-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
946 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021 /846 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the
outlook area. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will be
the main weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms on Monday could produce localized
heavy rainfall, mainly across southern Indiana.

More significant and widespread rainfall is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday, mainly across central Kentucky. Excessive runoff could
result in flash flooding, and eventually lead to river flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts, flooding, and
gusty winds.

KDW/13