Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1247 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1034 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

The threat of severe weather has ended. Light to moderate rain will
continue into the pre-dawn hours and may prolong flooding in the
Flood Watch area. Did shave a few counties off of the northwest
corner of the watch where little if any flooding has been reported
recently and only light rain is expected from here on out. Thanks to
PAH for collaboration.

Issued at 713 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

Widespread showers and embedded thunder will continue through the
evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Instability has waned and
should continue to decrease with weak low and mid level lapse rates.
Still, some stronger gusts have managed to make it to the surface in
the past hour in southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Spoke
with SPC and decided to hang on to the Tornado Watch in the Bowling
Green area just a bit longer as the current convection moves
through, but the watch will probably be dropped in the next hour or
two.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

It's been an active weather day across the Ohio Valley as we have
seen training showers and thunderstorms drop significant rainfall
amounts in a short period of time, leading to flooding issues across
the Commonwealth. Kentucky Mesonet shows 24 hour rainfall amounts
are around 2-3 inches, with some locally higher amounts. Sfc
analysis places our CWA within the warm sector of the sfc low
(located over Green Bay), with the warm front situated to our north,
and the cold front trailing through IL and SE MO. Temps have surged
to the 60s and 70s, and even dewpoints in the low 60s.

The current environment remains supportive for heavy rain and
potentially strong storms for this afternoon. The core of the LLJ
is working off to our east this afternoon, where 850mb winds are
around 55kts. Over our CWA, still expect to see 35-45kt winds as the
tail end of the jet pushes east. At the sfc, historic PWATs for late
Feb are in the 1.5-1.6" range, and with model soundings showing a
tall and skinny CAPE profile and a deep warm cloud layer, efficient
rain-producing cells will continue this evening ahead of the
approaching cold front and within a deep SW flow conducive to
extreme moisture transport.

Glancing at KY Mesonet obs, current SW wind gusts are highest
(roughly 15-25 mph) from south central KY to the Bluegrass region.
This matches up well with where the greatest moisture transport and
nosing of highest PWATs are located. SPC Mesoanalysis reveals
MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg over our south-central KY counties, with
MUCAPE of 1500 J/kg just to the south in TN. Best chance to see any
potentially strong storms should be this afternoon, where the best
wind energy combined with instability will be. Still think the best
environment will be to our south, but can't completely rule out a
rogue strong/severe storm. Best wind energy is in the lowest 1 km.
Effective Bulk Shear will be around 50 kts, along with SRH sfc-1km
near 150-300 m2/s2, there is a threat for brief spin ups. Given the
threat for our SW CWA, coordinated with SPC and neighboring WFOs to
include Warren/Allen/Logan/Simpson in Tornado Watch 13. CAPE should
mostly diminish by this evening, but should still see precip
continue tonight as the frontal boundary pushes through.

Cold front will pass through our southern IN counties around 00z,
and should be our entire CWA by 03-04z tonight, evident by NW flow
and CAA advection. PoPs will linger over our SE CWA through tomorrow
morning despite being post-frontal. We will dry out across the
entire region by noon or so tomorrow. Clouds hang around until
tomorrow afternoon, but temps are still expected to reach near 50F.

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

The main weathermaker for the upcoming week is a progressive
southern stream wave that will make its way east from the Red River
Valley across the Tennessee Valley Tuesday night and into the
Carolinas on Wednesday. Model agreement isn't great, but there
remains some potential for light precip across mainly southern
Kentucky. Temperatures are marginal for precip type, but keep in
mind the temp guidance seems more in line with a suppressed
solution, so will adjust to limit or perhaps eliminate snow
mentions, as it should be warm enough for mostly/entirely rain as
far north as we actually see precip. Low probability and low QPF
should yield little or no impact.

Once that disturbance departs the rest of the week looks quiet, with
fairly strong sfc high pressure to our N/NW for much of the time.
Plains ridging and east coast trofiness will maintain a NW to at
times zonal flow aloft, so temps should be near or slightly above
climo.  Slight cooling trend into the weekend as the deep upper low
backs up across the Maritimes into Quebec, and heights drop across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1245 AM EST Mon Mar 01 2021

Radar and observations across our TAF sites continue to show rain
falling at all but HNB as of this discussion. Rain will slowly taper
off overnight and into early morning from the west to the east.
Conditions varied from MVFR at SDF/BWG to even VFR for HNB/LEX. The
main challenge will be CIG through the morning as model guidance was
not initializing well on CIG heights and was pessimistic on
improving conditions. Tried to account for both in the TAF as we
will see MVFR/VFR conditions through the rest of the overnight.
Confidence remains low on the more pessimistic MVFR conditions but
as the cold front pushes eastward through KY there could be periods
of MVFR CIG. Clouds will begin to break and clear out through the
day and expect mostly clear conditions by the afternoon and evening.

Winds are now out of the northwest and will remain as we go into the
day Monday. Winds will range between 10-15kt as the cold front
continues to push through and exit tonight into the morning. Winds
will start to shift more northerly later Monday evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for INZ090>092.

KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for KYZ024-
     025-027>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Update...13
Short Term...CJP
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...BTN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1031 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

INZ090>092-KYZ024-025-027>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-074>078-081-
082-020345-
Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Breckinridge-Meade-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Spencer-
Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-
Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-
Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville,
Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown,
Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle,
Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown,
Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville,
Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville,
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
1031 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /931 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Light to moderate rainfall tonight will cause flooding to continue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Runoff will lead to flooding. Rivers are rising, so be mindful of
rivers going into flood in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report heavy rainfall amounts and
flooding tonight.

INZ076>079-083-084-089-KYZ023-026-020345-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Hancock-Ohio-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Lewisport, Hawesville, and Hartford
1031 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /931 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

KYZ070>073-020345-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-
Including the cities of Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin,
Providence, and Scottsville
931 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Light to moderate rain will continue past midnight and will prolong
ongoing flooding. If you see a flooded roadway, turn around!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Runoff will lead to flooding. Rivers are rising, so be mindful of
rivers going into flood in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report heavy rainfall amounts and
flooding tonight.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
941 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TOMPKINSVILLE           36.70N 85.69W
02/28/2021                   MONROE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER WATT BRIDGE ON KY 163.

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
943 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW MARROWBONE         36.82N 85.51W
02/28/2021                   CUMBERLAND         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ON GRAY GAP ROAD AT TURNER BRANCH
            ROAD.

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
949 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     FLOOD            EDMONTON                36.98N 85.61W
02/28/2021                   METCALFE           KY   PUBLIC

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1012 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            4 SE WATERFORD          37.99N 85.39W
02/28/2021                   SPENCER            KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            BRIDGE OVER SIMPSON CREEK ON KY 2885 CLOSED.

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1056 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      2 ESE BEE SPRING        37.27N 86.24W
02/28/2021                   EDMONSON           KY   PUBLIC

            MUDSLIDE CLOSED KY 728.

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1057 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENSBURG              37.26N 85.50W
02/28/2021                   GREEN              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN FLOODED AND CLOSED.
            THE OLD BOTTLING COMPANY COLLAPSED ONTO A
            POWER POLE, CUTTING POWER TO MUCH OF
            GREENSBURG. WATER RESCUES WERE ALSO
            CONDUCTED.

&&

EBW