Winter Weather Advisory 7, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
258 PM PST Thu Feb 11 2021

SYNOPSIS...Valley rains and mountain snowfall tonight into Friday.
A colder storm system brings more widespread snow accumulations
on Saturday and Sunday

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.UPDATE...Update to add Winter Weather Advisory for Ruby Mountains
and northeast and central Nevada. Also to add Winter Storm Watch
for the Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 238 PM /

SYNOPSIS...Valley rains and mountain snowfall tonight into Friday.
A colder storm system brings more widespread snow accumulations
on Saturday and Sunday

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.  A warmer Pacific low
pressure system supported by a closed upper low scoots across
northern CA and continue southeast into southern NV. This system
will spread valley rain and mountain snow this evening first into
Humboldt County and then expand east and southeast across central
and northern Nevada overnight into Friday morning. Most valley
locations below 6000 feet will either see rain or a rain/snow mix
tonight into Friday. Higher valleys and over mountains will see
accumulating snow through Friday. Most higher valley areas will
see up to an inch of new snow while higher northern mountain areas
of Elko County and the Ruby mountains could see upwards of a foot
of new snow over their higher crests . Most precipitation with
this system will taper off and mostly end through the Friday
afternoon as the low opens over central CA opens and drifts SE
into southern NV. A few higher elevation showers will linger
through Friday night into early Saturday.

A second and colder Pacific winter system will push into the
western US and spread more snow into the Great Basin and Nevada by
late Friday evening. Added forcing will be provided by the
divergent exit region of a 150-160kt jet streak digging into the
region early Saturday morning through Sunday as colder air pushes
east into the region. Snow levels across northeast Nevada will be
for the most part be at the valley floors to start. But the warmer
air ahead of the incoming cold front will cause snow levels across
central Nevada to rise to 5500 feet Saturday morning but lower to
valley floors later Saturday afternoon. Therefore some valley
locations over Humboldt County and northern Lander/Eureka county
will see a rain/snow mix quickly changing over to mostly snow on
Saturday. Snow and snow showers are expected to continue across
northern and central NV overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.

Snow accumulations of 1”-3” are expected for most valley areas
below 5500” with higher valley areas and passes ranging
3”-5” though Sunday morning. Higher mountain areas will see
another foot plus added to their snow packs especially across
terrain favored upslope locations. Gusty west and northwest winds
will quickly follow the frontal boundary’s passage across
northern and central Nevada. Therefore a winter weather advisory
will likely be issued for parts of eastern Nevada. A winter
weather advisory will be issued for the Ruby Mountains late this
evening through late morning Friday and a winter storm watch
starting Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night though next Thursday.

The next weather disturbance will begin to impact the region from
the northwest Monday bringing a mix of mostly snow but some lower
valley rain to the state over a multi-day period. A consistent
stream of north Pacific moisture will persist Monday night into
Tuesday, with snow showers gradually tapering off Wednesday from
west to east. This persistent influx of moisture combined with
the arrival of a robust upper jet will promote areas of enhanced
snowfall across eastern and northeastern Nevada. 3-5 inches of
snowfall is possible in some valleys of Elko and White Pine
counties from Monday through Tuesday night. Mountain areas such as
the Ruby Mountains and Jarbidge Mountains could easily see over
one foot of snow with higher ridges reaching 18-24 inches. Conditions
improve Wednesday with more snow expected across northern Nevada
beginning Thursday as an active weather pattern continues.

Winds could be impactful Monday and Tuesday bringing the
possibility of blowing snow as a strong jet moves over the Great
Basin region. High temperatures will drop into the 30s by
Wednesday from the 40s on Monday before rebounding Thursday. Lows
will range from the 20s Sunday and Monday nights before
dropping into the teens Tuesday night. Some locations in Elko
county and the higher terrain of central Nevada and White Pine
County could drop into the single digits Thursday morning.

AVIATION...The first of several waves of precipitation over the
next several days is expected to begin today, with an expanding
mix of lower valley rain, higher elevation snow and lower
ceilings through tonight across northern and central Nevada.
Widespread lowering of ceilings, reduced VIS during times of
precipitation, especially snow, and widespread mountain
obscurations are possible through tonight. Conditions improve
Friday for a short while before the next, stronger system moves
into the state late Friday into Saturday. Impacts will generally
be greater across the I-80 corridor and White Pine county at KWMC,
KBAM and KEKO, and KEKO than they will at KTPH.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday
for Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County-South Central Elko County-Southern Lander County
and Southern Eureka County-Southwest Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Friday for Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday
night for Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

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