Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
235 PM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and wet conditions across the region through
Saturday afternoon, then dry Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon. A cold front over northern NV Sunday night will pass SE
across NV by Monday afternoon, bringing snow showers to most
areas. Snow showers may linger over portions of eastern NV Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday. Elongated trough energy
approaching the west coast with southwesterly jet energy moving
through central and southern California is bringing moist and
unstable air into much of northern and central NV this afternoon.
Best chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening
will be across Lander and Eureka Counties, east over the Ruby
mountains, and into eastern Elko County, although other portions
of the CWA may still see isolated TS activity. Stronger cells
today may bring one to two tenths of an inch of rain and possibly
small hail. Areas that are less favorable for TS activity may
also see some rain showers into this evening.

Showers linger over much of northern NV tonight, then expand south
and east across all of northern and central NV by Friday
afternoon. Rain amounts on Friday are expected to be higher than
today, especially across mountain areas. Latest guidance has
between 0.25 and 1.00 inches of rain for the Ruby Mountains
Friday into Friday night. This will be a concern for recent burn
scar and debris flow areas of Lamoille Canyon, especially Friday
evening and night when the heaviest rains are expected.

Trough energy is centered over the Great Basin early Saturday
morning, which will drift SE out of NV later on Saturday. Most
showers end across the CWA by late Saturday morning, though
lingering light showers may persist over mainly just mountains of
east-central NV into the afternoon hours. Highs on Saturday will
continue to trend cooler as northerly flow aloft moves in behind
the exiting trough.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Thursday

A shortwave ridge pushes out of the region overnight Saturday and
into Sunday morning as a trough digs into the region. Showers may
start in northwestern parts of Nevada as early as Sunday night,
spreading across the CWA Monday through Tuesday morning. By
midweek, a closed low tries to form in the trough, which could
allow for some wrap around moisture leading to light showers along
the NV/UT border. However, there is lower confidence related to
timing and placement of this low, resulting in lower confidence as
well in the precipitation possibility on Tuesday. There are also
questions as to how low the snow level can drop. Mountaintops look
likely to see measurable snowfall, and it is possible that
snow levels come down to the higher valleys on Tuesday and
Wednesday. To reiterate, this is going to depend on the placement
of the low and whether or not we get precipitation to overlap with
the colder air coming in.

There is more of a moderate amount of confidence with respect to
our temperatures trending colder. We’re expecting to go from
highs on Sunday in the 50s and low 60s to Monday highs only
hitting 30s and 40s. North-northwesterly flow is going to help
lock in this cold air, and keep our temperatures 15 to 20 degrees
below average.

Wednesday may be our transition day with respect to weather
conditions, but not so much temperatures. Some ensemble members
are putting a healthy amount of precipitation in central Nevada,
while other members keep things dry. Guidance is trying to squeeze
a short-lived shortwave trough in the region, which would help
give us a dry Wednesday. Even as this ridge is pushed out on
Thursday, the bulk of the moisture currently looks to stay just to
our North.

&&

.AVIATION...Light showers continue into this evening and through
the overnight hours, but thunderstorm activity diminishes. Ample
moisture in the region could lead to lowered CIGs at all sites,
while KELY in particular may see fog in the very early morning
hours on Friday. VCTS return Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Active weather through Saturday as periods of showers
and thunderstorms bring wetting rains to much of the region.
Temperatures will also continue to trend cooler through Saturday.
Dry Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon with highs on Sunday
warming into the upper 50s to low 60s. A much colder system drops
into northern NV Sunday night which will spread snow showers
across much of the region by Monday afternoon as the associated
cold front passes from NW to SE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Elko NV
318 AM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021

NVZ030-031-033>041-081030-
Humboldt County-Northern Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range-White Pine County-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-
Southwest Elko County-South Central Elko County-
Northwestern Nye County-Northeastern Nye County-
318 AM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern Nevada,
north central Nevada, northeast Nevada, northwest Nevada, and
south central Nevada.

.DAY ONE...Today...Showers and thunderstorms expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through next Tuesday...Very wet
conditions expected with many areas picking over three- quarters
of an inch of precipitation by Saturday morning. Some of the
mountain peaks see a dusting to a several inches of snow Friday
night through Saturday morning. Another system next Monday and
Tuesday could bring snowfall to the valleys with snow
accumulations in the mountains, especially in eastern Nevada

With these hazards dirt roads may become muddy, and anyone
adventuring outside may need to adjust to colder and damp
conditions.  Please be prepared accordingly.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
255 PM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021

NVZ036>038-072230-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County NV-
Southwest Elko County NV-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County NV-
255 PM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Elko
and central Eureka Counties through 330 PM PDT...

At 254 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Pine Valley, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Moderate rainfall is likely. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage
         to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4007 11610 4019 11634 4056 11607 4032 11569
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 220DEG 42KT 4026 11608

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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