Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
331 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend and some showers could be locally moderate to heavy at
times. A cooling trend will bring high temperatures in the 70's
and 80's over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday afternoon

The ridge axis remains over the western US and a strong, much
above normal amount of monsoonal moisture remains in place over
Nevada. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will continue
through the weekend. Storms will be fairly slow moving, especially
on Sunday, with pockets of moderate to heavy showers. Therefore,
the threat for flash flooding continues. The Flash Flood Watch has
been extended into most of northern Nevada (except for Humboldt
County) as areas that saw heavy rain along with some
flooding/debris flows on Friday, could see more moderate to heavy
showers over the next two days. Flash floods may be more easily
able to develop there with lower then their normal rainfall rates
due to saturated top soils. Of particular concern for debris
flows are burn scar areas such as Lamoille Canyon (which
experienced one on Friday) and the Sugarloaf Burn Scar (from
Wildhorse to Owyhee, which has already seen some descent amounts
of rainfall recently). Best chance for stronger thunderstorms is
in the early to mid afternoon hours when areas that see some
clearing in the morning will be quicker to destabilize, which
looks to be eastern Nevada today, according to current satellite
trends and expected partial clearing there. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to continue overnight tonight,
though coverage will decrease a little and thunderstorms will wane
some as they did on Friday night. The ridge axis will start to
move eastward on Sunday afternoon, which could put a greater focus
on thunderstorm activity in eastern Nevada. Cooler temperatures
continue with highs in the mid 70's to mid 80's. Lows will be in
the mid 50's to mid 60's. Winds remain light outside of
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday

Chances of thunderstorms decrease over the first half of the
week. A low pressure system off of the coast of California slowly
approaches, and slowly pushes the local high pressure system away.
This helps to cutoff the monsoonal moisture that resulted in the
previous wet weekend. Thunderstorms that do pop up on Monday are
most likely to occur in eastern Nevada with a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms. Coverage is likely going to be isolated due to the
moisture slowly being cutoff.

The trough may lose the embedded low over Tuesday and Wednesday,
and the remaining trough slowly marches across the Pacific
Northwest. Flow aloft becomes more zonal, and this results in
drier air moving in. There is some evidence of just enough
instability to trigger a dry thunderstorm or two in northern
Nevada, however there is lower confidence with respect to seeing
thunderstorm activity versus cloud buildups. A boundary drags
slowly across the state for the second half of the workweek,
courtesy of the trough. A fairly tight gradient indicates the
possibility of stronger winds, but there isn’t enough indication
at this time that products will be needed. This will have to be
monitored closely as the next few days come.

Temperatures for the first half of the week hang around the 80s
for most of us, which is cooler than recent weeks. Unfortunately,
this doesn’t last long and the dry air intrusion allows for
temperatures to trend warmer through the week. Currently we’re
expecting highs to reach the mid 90s toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are once again expected
this afternoon with a majority of the activity beginning closer to
our eastern sites of KELY and KEKO before becoming more
widespread and numerous as we get into the evening. Smoke and haze
still lingers across northern sites, but any impacts are expected
to be minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday
with wetting rains being seen over much of northern and central
Nevada. The wet storms will limit the risk of new starts, however
strikes outside of main cores could lead to isolated fire starts.
In addition, there will be sufficient moisture to cause moderate
to locally heavy rain which could lead to localized flash
flooding.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Northeastern Nye
County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby Mountains and East
Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko
County-Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-
Southwest Elko County-White Pine County.

&&

90/84/88/90

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
248 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

NVZ034-038-039-312230-
Southwest Elko County NV-South Central Elko County NV-
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range NV-
248 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM PDT...

At 247 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clover Valley, moving north at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wells, Ruby Valley, Clover Valley, Deeth, Angel Lake, Moor Summit,
Secret Pass and Star Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 11471 4070 11497 4063 11521 4111 11536
      4116 11503 4116 11468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 177DEG 24KT 4078 11496

87