Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
209 AM PDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue
today. Isolated thunderstorms are again expected on Friday,
mainly for central and eastern Nevada. Strong gusty winds are
possible with any thunderstorm. Fair weather returns this weekend
along with a warming trend. Heat looks to reach near or record
values starting next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday afternoon...

Upper Low remains just off of the California coast and moisture
continues to be drawn in from the south, which is creating
continued convective activity early this morning in central
Nevada as isolated lightning strikes continue. Convection will
increase later this morning and into the afternoon with the
heating of the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm in northern
and central Nevada will continue to provide a dry thunderstorm
threat even though central Nevada looks to transition into more of
a mix of wet and dry storms as PWATs there are expected to
approach .80 inches or so. Red Flag Warnings will therefore once
again be in effect today. Please see the Fire Weather section for
further details. The main threat with thunderstorms today
continues to be the strong outflow winds and lightning. The
cooling trend continues today, with highs in the mid 80's to lower
90's. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be lightly breezy.

The upper low will finally open up tonight and the start to get
washed into the flow on Friday. There will still be enough
moisture around for some afternoon isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity, especially in central Nevada, though
coverage is expected to in general be on the decrease. Lows on
Friday morning will be a little cooler, with valleys who receive a
bit more clearing even dropping into the mid to upper 40's. A
warming trend will begin as heights start to rebound, with
afternoon temperatures in the upper 80's through the mid 90's.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday...

Friday evening looks to bring lows in the 50s for most with some
warmer spots. Saturday will be quiet for most of the CWA, with the
exception being portions of east-central Nevada, where models are
hinting at enough instability to produce isolated dry
thunderstorms. A prominent area of high pressure will roast the
Pacific northwest during the weekend. This prominent high will
slowly makes its way south and east. As such the temperature will
keep getting warmer throughout next week. Highs in the upper 90s
to lower 100s are expected throughout the long-term. The chance
of isolated dry thunderstorms return again Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon, predominately in central Nevada.

With the heat cranked up during the day night time lows are
expected to increase as well. Starting out in the 50s during the
weekend lows may not drop out of the 60s by next week. With the
upcoming heat and the heat that has already greeted the region,
June 2021 is expected to be one of, if not the hottest June on
record for some areas.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through the period. Expect
skies sct-bkn AOA 8kft and winds generally below 10kts through
this morning. More showers and storms are expected Thursday
afternoon/evening and will likely bring erratic downdraft/outflow
winds that could impact the terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today will see another round of thunderstorms
with isolated to scattered coverage. The complicated part is the
wetness of the thunderstorms. Today's storms look to start on the
drier side during the early afternoon and transition to more wet
thunderstorms progressively through the day, especially in central
Nevada. This introduces a window where there can be scattered dry
thunderstorms to a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Given that we
are in a exceptional drought with receptive fuels, a Red Flag
Warning continues in order to account for this window of dry
thunderstorms. As such a Red Flag Warning is in effect for zones
425, 426, 427 438, 469, and 470 from 11 am to 8 pm today. Friday
looks to see even more thunderstorms in mainly central to eastern
NV, with these thunderstorms being isolated and possibly wet in
nature. After Friday it looks like fair weather finally returns to
Nevada. RH will be high through Friday with overnight recoveries
in all zones expected to be 40-70%.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Another heatwave is expected starting in western Nevada on
Sunday and spreading eastward into the remainder of Nevada on
Monday. The heat will increase and continue into at least mid week
and some records will likely be approached or broken. Heat
advisories will be likely due to the extended time duration of the
heat wave event and Excessive Heat Warnings may also be issued in
at least Humboldt County with the hottest temperatures and less
overnight cooling expected there compared to some counties to the
east. Please begin to make preparations for this extended period
of heat.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Central Elko County-Central Nevada-Toiyabe-Eastern
Elko County-Northern Nye County-Mojave-W Elko County, N Eureka
and Lander Counties N of I80-White Pine and Northeast Nye
Counties.

&&

90/87/91/90

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