Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
447 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Weakening high pressure will still linger over the
Great Basin continuing the hot weather over the silver state.
Isolated thunderstorms will continue into the evening today with
the weekend seeing breezy but fair weather across the silver
state.

&&

.UPDATE...Updated the forecast to add some early evening isolated
thunderstorms westward a bit to cover for current trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 209 PM /

SYNOPSIS...Weakening high pressure will still linger over the
Great Basin continuing the hot weather over the silver state.
Isolated thunderstorms will continue into the evening today with
the weekend seeing breezy but fair weather across the silver
state.

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

A weakening ridge of high pressure remains over the silver
state which will be complimented by a deepening low off the coast
of California. The ridge is still robust enough today to continue
the thunderstorms into the evening hours. Once the ridge weakens
more tonight the moisture will be scoured out by drier air that
can finally infiltrate the area. This dry air intrusion will
produce fair weather across the silver state through the weekend.
The sole exception may be the Snake Range on Saturday which could
see an isolated thunderstorms or two form. The ridge/trough combo
will cause the winds to be gusty during the weekend with the
gustiest winds expected in northern NV. The weakening of the ridge
will allow the temperatures to finally cool a little but still
remain hot with highs into the 90s.

LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday...Slight cooling
trend through Thursday as heights lower as large scale trough off
the west coast tries to inch onshore. Early next week as the trough
approaches, it is expected to help pull up a subtle trough or closed
low off SW Cali coast up through the region. Although moisture
remains limited, may be enough upper-level support to fire off
widely isolated showers/storms later Monday into Tuesday. For
Wednesday into Thursday models are in a little better agreement but
still noted differences with location and strength of the large
trough and embedded shortwave features. Looking at ensemble cluster
guidance, the general solution is for troughing lingering off to our
west or pushing east with another shortwave rounding its base into
norCal and possibly into northern NV. This could lead to some
isolated showers/storms across northern NV, especially Humboldt
county. After passage is the shortwave, models and ensemble guidance
vary significantly. One solution has trough axis retrograding
slightly west as another reinforcing upper level low dropping south
along the coast. This seems to be favored and would bring dry
conditions with slightly warmer temps for Friday. Another solution
has the trough working onshore with front sliding across the region
with showers and cooler conditions.

Still quite warm with slight cooling through Thursday. Highs Monday
in the mid 80s to low 90s, down to the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Wed/Thu. Warming back up into the mid 80s to low 90s Friday,
although model spread is quite large this far out with other
solution showing cooler temps. With the persistent trough off to our
west and southwest flow aloft, expect breezy winds each
afternoon/evening, generally 10-20 mph gusting 20-35 mph. Mon
through Wed look to be best potential for higher winds with EC EFI
values of 0.60-0.85.

AVIATION...VFR conditions expected with some high based (AOA 10kft)
showers and storms developing afternoon across central and northeast
NV. Have included VCTS for TPH/EKO/ELY with some gusty
downdraft/outflow winds possible. The best potential for storms
impacting taf site will be at ELY through the afternoon. Outside of
storms, winds generally 10-15g18-24kts today. Anomalously high
density altitudes are expected today as well. Winds decrease tonight
but increase again tomorrow afternoon 12-18g20-27kts

FIRE WEATHER...Isolated dry thunderstorms currently continue this
afternoon and evening mainly in central and eastern NV. These
thunderstorms will be mainly dry with only the mountains having a
chance of getting any rainfall. Generally fair weather is expected
on Saturday for all of NV. The only exception being the Snake
Range which could see an isolated thunderstorm on Saturday before
becoming fair weather on Sunday. Gusty winds will occur across NV
this weekend which will be coupled with very dry air. These winds
are below critical thresholds but still will lead to some elevated
fire weather concerns. RH looks to bottom out in the single digits
across the silver state through the weekend and early next work week.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

90

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
443 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

NVZ033-039-050015-
Southeastern Elko County NV-South Central Elko County NV-
443 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM PDT...

At 442 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Pequop Summit, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oasis, Pequop Summit and Silver Zone Pass.

LAT...LON 4084 11475 4090 11482 4102 11483 4116 11448
      4091 11431 4085 11464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 245DEG 17KT 4096 11466

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
459 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

NVZ031-034-036-038-039-050030-
Southwest Elko County NV-Northern Elko County NV-
South Central Elko County NV-
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range NV-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County NV-
459 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO AND NORTH
CENTRAL EUREKA COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM PDT...

At 457 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of storms from
Emigrant Pass towards Elko and Spring Creek. Movement was northeast
at 25 mph.

Pea sized hail and wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elko, Carlin, South Fork, Lee, Lamoille, Jiggs, Ryndon, Spring Creek,
Palisade, Adobe Summit, Lamoille Summit, Lamoille Canyon, Emigrant
Mine, South Area Mine and Halleck.

LAT...LON 4123 11580 4093 11540 4072 11520 4044 11552
      4033 11581 4059 11623 4088 11645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 245DEG 53KT 4107 11611 4077 11583 4048 11555

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
527 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

NVZ031-034-038-039-050100-
Southwest Elko County NV-Northern Elko County NV-
South Central Elko County NV-
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range NV-
527 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
PDT...

At 526 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles south of Tuscarora to 12 miles north
of Carlin to near Lee. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Pea sized hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elko, Wells, South Fork, Ruby Valley, Lee, Lamoille, Clover Valley,
Deeth, Ryndon, Spring Creek, Angel Lake, Adobe Summit, Secret Pass,
Lamoille Summit, Lamoille Canyon, Star Valley and Halleck.

LAT...LON 4041 11516 4050 11564 4088 11599 4115 11605
      4151 11505 4051 11452
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 252DEG 52KT 4107 11623 4090 11612 4058 11567

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
530 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

NVZ031-050100-
Northern Elko County NV-
530 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM PDT...

At 529 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Contact, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Pea sized hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jackpot.

LAT...LON 4192 11404 4174 11469 4189 11482 4200 11466
      4199 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 236DEG 14KT 4186 11468

90

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