Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
921 AM PDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving through southern Nevada
will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the most of
state again today. A few strong storms area possible accompanied
by gusty winds, small hail and cloud to ground lightning. Drier
conditions move into northwest Nevada Monday with lingering
showers and afternoon thunderstorms across central and eastern
Nevada Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Enhanced thunderstorm phrasing in the updated zones and gridded
data in the marginal area from SPC, that being the threat of small
hail and gusty winds. Expect strong storms today and maybe an
isolated cell that exceeds severe thunderstorm warning criteria.
Shear is less prevalent today, but there is less cloud cover to
start the day. Expect storm activity to increase quickly after
10-11 am this morning.  The strongest storms are expected from
northeast Elko County to northwest Nye County. This includes the
communities of Elko, Spring Creek, Eureka, and the rural valleys
of Diamond Valley and the Big Smoky Valley.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 306 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving through southern Nevada
will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the most of
state again today. A few strong storms area possible accompanied
by gusty winds, small hail and cloud to ground lightning. Drier
conditions move into northwest Nevada Monday with lingering
showers and afternoon thunderstorms across central and eastern
Nevada Monday.

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.

The low pressure system moving through southern Nevada will
continue to bring active weather to much of central and northern
Nevada today. This feature combined with an increasingly unstable
atmosphere will promote further convection later this morning and
afternoon. Sufficient instability with CAPE values reaching 800
and in some locations approaching 1500 J/kg will allow some strong
storms to develop from central Nevada into Elko county. A marginal
risk for severe storms exists as well but shear and dynamics is
not as favorable as it was yesterday. Influence of low continues
into Monday with showers and thunderstorms expected across central
and eastern Nevada with drier conditions moving into northwest
Nevada.

Temperatures will be in the 70s for much of the state today with
80s returning for some locations in northwestern Nevada Monday.
Lows tonight will bottom out in the 40s with some central valley
locations reaching down into the 30s.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday

A stray shower or two in eastern Nevada overnight Monday into
Tuesday isn't out of the question as the messy weather system that
impacted our weekend and Monday moves off to the East. Tuesday is
shaping up to be a dry day, but conditions change come Wednesday
as the next low pressure system approaches our region.

Wednesday currently looks like most of us see some light showers
with rainfall having the best chance of making it to the ground in
parts of central and northeastern Nevada. Overnight Thursday into
Friday morning, we have to be the bearer of the bad news that it
is possible we see rain changeover to snow. The system bringing
this weather in ushers some cool air in with it, and this makes it
possible for snowflakes to reach the ground. However, temperatures
at the surface may not support accumulation and we think that is
the silver lining. As evening approaches, the snow levels lift
and valleys may have a return of rain, while mountain tops may see
small snow accumulations. This continues into Saturday, and we
hope that this is the last time we have to use the word snow in a
forecast discussion for the rest of May.

We'll see this change in weather not just with precipitation, but
also temperatures. Tuesday and Wednesday see highs in the 70s and
80s with overnight lows mostly in the 40s. As the precipitation
arrives and cooler air settles in, afternoon highs only reach the
40s and some 50s with overnight lows in the 20s.

AVIATION...A low pressure system continues to pass through
southern NV bringing showers and thunderstorms to all terminals
for the next few days. The strongest storms are expected today. These
thunderstorms can lead to heavy downpours, erratic strong gusty
outflows, and hail. A few of the thunderstorms may be strong and
even severe which can produce even stronger winds, larger hail,
and heavier downpours. KEKO and KBAM have the best chances of
seeing these stronger thunderstorms. The thunderstorms and showers
will likely cause mountain obscurations through NV. There will
once again be some threat of nocturnal convection during the
overnight hours of Sunday into Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...Another round of showers and thunderstorms are
expected today as a low pressure system moves through southern
Nevada. Some thunderstorms could be strong bringing hail, cloud to
ground lightning and gusty outflow winds in addition to brief
heavy downpours. Wetting rains are possible across much of central
and northeastern Nevada with fire weather zones 437, 426 and 455
a bit drier. Shower activity gradually shifts eastward Monday as
the low pressure system moves out of the four corners region.
Shower and thunderstorm intensity is expected to diminish across
eastern Nevada as well Monday.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

93/84/93/93

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
116 PM PDT Sun May 16 2021

NVZ030-031-036-162100-
Northern Elko County NV-Humboldt County NV-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County NV-
116 PM PDT Sun May 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HUMBOLDT...NORTHERN
LANDER AND WEST CENTRAL ELKO COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM PDT...

At 115 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southwest of Midas, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Humboldt, northern Lander and west central Elko Counties.

LAT...LON 4123 11706 4113 11684 4078 11705 4098 11743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 036DEG 18KT 4110 11704

SS

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