Fire Weather Watch 3, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
208 AM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and quiet conditions, combined with a warming
trend, are expected to hang over the region well into next week.
Look for temperatures to continue to rise well into the 90s with
some of our hotter locations hitting the triple digits as early as
Monday. Some breezy winds each afternoon are possible as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Big high pressure will be
centered over western Texas today with an upper level low pressure
system off the northwest Pacific coast. For today, there will be
mostly sunny skies across much of the area. Afternoon highs will
warm into the 80s to maybe even near 90s in some of the warmer
locales. Winds will generally be light. Quiet weather is expected
for tonight, though overnight lows will not be as chilly, with
readings in the 30s and 40s.

On Sunday, upper level ridging will be retrograding west and
building over western New Mexico, while the upper trough will
remain off the coast of the western United States. Winds will
develop out ahead of this system and will be fairly breezy to
locally windy in the central part of the forecast area. It looks
like the criteria for a wind advisory will not be met. High
temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 90s. Based off
forecast highs, Ely airport will be close to a record high
temperature. The record for that days is 92 set back in 1974 and
the forecast is calling for the low 90s. Other locations will see
readings in the mid to perhaps even the upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Saturday.

Next week is looking to be completely dominated by a robust ridge
that lingers over western CONUS. There is some indication that
the ridge should weaken towards next weekend but still remain in
place for the time being. What this means for NV is hot weather
should rule through the rest of next week. Highs are looking to be
in the 90s to low 100s with the overnight lows in the 60s. This
heat wave should put the highs and overnight lows near or at
record high values. Some relief may occur towards the end of next
week as some moisture looks to round the weakened ridge and
arrive in NV. If this occurs then this moisture could produce some
cloud cover or some isolated thunderstorms. Another source of
relief may be from the gusty afternoon winds that look to occur
each day. These winds however may just serve to make anyone
outside that much drier if they don't drink a lot of fluids.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be seen at all terminals for the
next 24 hours. Expect mostly sunny skies today with relatively
light winds as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Look for dry and warm conditions to persist
through the period. Afternoon highs will continue to warm each
afternoon, with readings in the 90s (or even warmer) as time moves
on. By Monday, some of our warmer locales could see triple digits.
With respect to critical fire weather conditions, Sunday continues
to be the day where central Nevada could see critical wind/RH
conditions. Winds speeds will be at or just above critical levels
Sunday, while minimum RH values will be in the single digits. Fire
zones 425, 426, and 427 remain the ones to watch. Look for a repeat
of breezy winds and low relative humidity values each afternoon
next week for these zones beginning Monday. The northern zones are
expected to remain good given fuel status and/or relative humidity
values remaining higher in their respective areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...Strong high pressure will build across the desert
southwest, resulting in several days of possible record high
temperatures through the next week. Listed below is a table that
shows the record high temperatures (and year of occurrence) for
each day at each climate site in northern and central Nevada.

Airport       6/13       6/14      6/15        6/16       6/17

Elko       100 (1918)  98 (1974) 97 (1940)  99 (1940) 100 (1940)
Ely         92 (1974)  94 (1896) 92 (2007)  93 (1985)  95 (1899)
Eureka      94 (2018)  92 (2007) 93 (2015)  94 (2007)  95 (2012)
Tonopah     98 (1960)  99 (1960) 96 (1989)  97 (1985)  98 (1961)
Winnemucca 104 (1974) 102 (1974) 99 (1940) 104 (1940) 103 (1974)

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

86/99/99/86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
202 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

NVZ030-031-033>041-122315-
Humboldt County-Northern Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range-White Pine County-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-
Southwest Elko County-South Central Elko County-
Northwestern Nye County-Northeastern Nye County-
Including the cities of Golconda, Winnemucca, Valmy, Dufferena,
Midas, Gibbs Ranch, Charleston, Jarbidge, Mountain City, Owyhee,
Tuscarora, West Wendover, Ely, Ely Airport, Lund, Preston, Ruth,
Cherry Creek, McGill, Argenta, Battle Mountain, Crescent Valley,
Beowawe, Dunphy, Emigrant Pass, Palisade, Eureka, Pinto Summit,
Grass Valley, Hickison Summit, Diamond Valley, Eureka Airport,
Garden Pass, Elko, Ryndon, Jiggs, Lamoille, Lee, South Fork,
Spring Creek, Ruby Lake, Oasis, Manhattan, Round Mountain,
Tonopah, Blue Eagle Ranch, and Duckwater
202 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

......Warning temperatures capable of breaking daily record highs
possible next week...

Model simulations display strong high pressure building over the
Great Basin this week. This result in warming temperatures each
day with possible record high temperatures. By Monday, some of
the warmer locales across the area could break the triple digit
mark. The warm temperatures are expected to last for the rest of
the week. Though overnight lows will be above normal, temperatures
should provide some relief from the daytime heat. The only
exception is areas of northern Nye county and southeastern Elko
county, where overnight lows may remain above 70.

If recreating or working outdoors, please ensure you have enough
water to remain hydrated. If possible, please plan on completing
outdoor activities earlier or later in the day when the heat is
not as bad.

Mid-level moisture moving northward may provide a chance for
isolated dry thunderstorms on Friday and next Saturday. Due to
the ongoing drought and dry vegetation across the area, the
thunderstorms may produce fire starts due to lightning with little
or no precipitation, as well as gusty outflow winds. Visit
www.weather.gov/elko for the latest weather information.