Wind Chill Watch 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

811 
WWUS44 KLIX 142149
WSWLIX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
349 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...Significant Winter Weather Event Expected Late Tonight through
Monday...

.A shallow very cold airmass is currently over much of south
Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. An upper level disturbance
will bring abundant moisture into the area late tonight and
Monday. Temperatures aloft are warm, and precipitation that
develops tonight will be rain aloft, but as it reaches the cold
air near the surface, it will transition to freezing rain or
possibly sleet. Heavy freezing rain or sleet is expected across
the warning area during the day Monday before ending from west to
east in the afternoon hours. The expected precipitation amounts, 
especially of ice, are likely to produce significant impacts. 
After the precipitation ends, even colder air will arrive Monday 
night, producing wind chill values in the single digits and teens 
overnight Monday night and Tuesday morning.

LAZ034>037-039-046>050-056-057-071-072-MSZ068>071-150600-
/O.CON.KLIX.WS.W.0001.210215T0600Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.WC.A.0001.210216T0000Z-210216T1600Z/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-
Assumption-St. James-Northern Tangipahoa-Southern Tangipahoa-
Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-
Including the cities of New Roads, Lettsworth, Livonia, Spillman,
St. Francisville, Wakefield, Jackson, Clinton, Felps, Darlington,
Easleyville, Greensburg, Montpelier, Bogalusa, Enon, Franklinton,
Bayou Sorrel, Plaquemine, White Castle, Port Allen, Addis, 
Brusly, Baton Rouge, Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Prairieville, 
Denham Springs, Watson, Walker, Pierre Part, Labadieville, 
Paincourtville, Convent, Lutcher, Gramercy, Amite, Kentwood, 
Roseland, Wilmer, Hammond, Robert, Ponchatoula, Centreville, 
Dolorosa, Fort Adams, Woodville, Gillsberg, Gloster, Smithdale, 
Liberty, McComb, Dexter, Salem, and Tylertown
349 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, significant icing expected.
  Total ice accumulations of one tenth to four tenths of an inch.
  For the Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills 
  possible. Wind chills as low as 5 above zero.

* WHERE...All of Southwest Mississippi and portions of Southeast
  Louisiana generally north and west of a Bogalusa to Hammond to
  Pierre Part line.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from midnight tonight to 
  6 PM CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Watch, from Monday evening 
  through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning and evening commute. The dangerously 
  cold wind chills could result in hypothermia or frostbite if 
  precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

LAZ040-058>060-065-MSZ077-150600-
/O.CON.KLIX.WW.Y.0001.210215T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.WC.A.0001.210216T0000Z-210216T1600Z/
St. Tammany-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Terrebonne-Pearl River-
Including the cities of Slidell, Mandeville, Covington, Lacombe, 
Laplace, Reserve, Thibodaux, Raceland, Larose, Destrehan, Norco, 
Houma, Bayou Cane, Crossroads, McNeil, Poplarville, and Picayune
349 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM
CST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, freezing rain expected.
  Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. For the 
  Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind 
  chills as low as 5 above zero.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana
  generally north and west of a Houma to Lacombe to Poplarville
  line, but south and east of a Bogalusa to Hammond to Pierre Part
  line.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 AM to 6 PM CST 
  Monday. For the Wind Chill Watch, from Monday evening through 
  Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening 
  commute. The dangerously cold wind chills could result in 
  hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

LAZ061>064-066>070-MSZ080>082-150600-
/O.CON.KLIX.WC.A.0001.210216T0000Z-210216T1600Z/
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of Metairie, Kenner, East New Orleans, 
New Orleans, Belle Chasse, Chalmette, Violet, Chauvin, Cocodrie, 
Dulac, Montegut, Galliano, Cut Off, Golden Meadow, Leeville, 
Buras, Pointe A La Hache, Port Sulphur, Boothville, Venice, 
Empire, Myrtle Grove, Yscloskey, Bay St. Louis, Waveland, 
Diamondhead, Gulfport, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs, Moss Point, 
Gautier, and St. Martin
349 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as 
  low as 10 above zero.

* WHERE...All of coastal Mississippi and coastal Louisiana
  including portions of metro New Orleans south of Lake
  Pontchartrain. 

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could result in 
  hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

PG

814 
WWUS44 KLIX 150117
WSWLIX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
717 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...Significant Winter Weather Event Expected Late Tonight through
Monday...

.A shallow but very cold airmass is currently over much of south
Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. An upper level disturbance
will bring abundant moisture into the area late tonight and
Monday. Temperatures aloft are warm, and precipitation that
develops tonight will be rain aloft, but as it reaches the cold
air near the surface, it will transition to freezing rain or
possibly sleet. Heavy freezing rain or sleet is expected across
the warning area during the day Monday before ending from west to
east in the afternoon hours. The expected precipitation amounts,
especially of ice, are likely to produce significant impacts.
After the precipitation ends, even colder air will arrive Monday
night, producing wind chill values in the single digits and teens
overnight Monday night and Tuesday morning.

LAZ034>037-039-046>050-056-057-071-072-MSZ068>071-151215-
/O.UPG.KLIX.WC.A.0001.210216T0000Z-210216T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.WC.Y.0001.210216T0000Z-210216T1800Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.WS.W.0001.210215T0600Z-210216T0000Z/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-
Assumption-St. James-Northern Tangipahoa-Southern Tangipahoa-
Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-
Including the cities of New Roads, Lettsworth, Livonia, Spillman,
St. Francisville, Wakefield, Jackson, Clinton, Felps, Darlington,
Easleyville, Greensburg, Montpelier, Bogalusa, Enon, Franklinton,
Bayou Sorrel, Plaquemine, White Castle, Port Allen, Addis, 
Brusly, Baton Rouge, Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Prairieville, 
Denham Springs, Watson, Walker, Pierre Part, Labadieville, 
Paincourtville, Convent, Lutcher, Gramercy, Amite, Kentwood, 
Roseland, Wilmer, Hammond, Robert, Ponchatoula, Centreville, 
Dolorosa, Fort Adams, Woodville, Gillsberg, Gloster, Smithdale, 
Liberty, McComb, Dexter, Salem, and Tylertown
717 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, significant icing expected.
  Total ice accumulations of one tenth to four tenths of an inch.
  For the Wind Chill Advisory, dangerously cold wind chills 
  expected. Wind chills as low as 5 above zero.

* WHERE...All of Southwest Mississippi and portions of Southeast
  Louisiana generally north and west of a Bogalusa to Hammond to
  Pierre Part line.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from midnight tonight to 
  6 PM CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 6 PM Monday 
  to noon CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the 
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The 
  dangerously cold wind chills could result in hypothermia or 
  frostbite if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages. 

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

LAZ040-058>060-065-MSZ077-151215-
/O.UPG.KLIX.WC.A.0001.210216T0000Z-210216T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.WC.Y.0001.210216T0000Z-210216T1800Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.WW.Y.0001.210215T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
St. Tammany-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Terrebonne-Pearl River-
Including the cities of Slidell, Mandeville, Covington, Lacombe, 
Laplace, Reserve, Thibodaux, Raceland, Larose, Destrehan, Norco, 
Houma, Bayou Cane, Crossroads, McNeil, Poplarville, and Picayune
717 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM
CST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, freezing rain 
  expected. Total ice accumulations of around one tenth of an 
  inch. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills 
  expected. Wind chills as low as 10 above zero.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana
  generally north and west of a Houma to Lacombe to Poplarville
  line, but south and east of a Bogalusa to Hammond to Pierre Part
  line.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 AM to 6 PM CST 
  Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 6 PM Monday to noon 
  CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. The dangerously cold wind chills could result in 
  hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages. 

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

LAZ061>064-066>070-MSZ080>082-151215-
/O.UPG.KLIX.WC.A.0001.210216T0000Z-210216T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.WC.Y.0001.210216T0000Z-210216T1800Z/
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of Metairie, Kenner, East New Orleans, 
New Orleans, Belle Chasse, Chalmette, Violet, Chauvin, Cocodrie, 
Dulac, Montegut, Galliano, Cut Off, Golden Meadow, Leeville, 
Buras, Pointe A La Hache, Port Sulphur, Boothville, Venice, 
Empire, Myrtle Grove, Yscloskey, Bay St. Louis, Waveland, 
Diamondhead, Gulfport, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs, Moss Point, 
Gautier, and St. Martin
717 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  10 above zero.

* WHERE...All of coastal Mississippi and coastal Louisiana
  including portions of metro New Orleans south of Lake
  Pontchartrain. 

* WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could result in
  hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1139 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

.AVIATION...

Conditions are expected to vary between MVFR and IFR due to
lingering lower CIGS the remainder of the overnight through Sunday
evening. Some light rain may briefly impact KBTR and KMCB Sunday
morning and again across a larger area by late Sunday evening and
especially overnight into Monday. Will have increasing chances of
FZRA late Sunday night into Monday for KBTR to KMCB and possibly
KHDC and that will fall into the TAF forecasts upcoming at 12z or
18z. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1019 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021/

EVENING UPDATE...

Temperatures were running a couple degrees lower than forecast
this evening, but otherwise forecast was on track for tonight
into Sunday. There is a chance for some light freezing rain,
possibly mixed with sleet, to move into far northwest sections of
the forecast area around the southwest corner of Mississippi and
some adjacent bordering Louisiana areas north and northwest of
metro Baton Rouge Sunday morning, however no accumulation of ice
is anticipated that would require an advisory at this time.

One other trend in the HRRR and NAM models is a somewhat higher
potential for a bit more ice accumulation near to a bit southeast
of the current Winter Storm Watch area. Confidence was not great
enough to expand the watch at this time, but that could be
necessary on the overnight shift for the early morning forecast
Sunday. Stay tuned, as this will definitely be causing some
hazardous winter travel conditions on Monday across much of the
forecast area. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021/

SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)

Did not make any big changes to the forecast with this cycle as
thinking hasn't changed much.

A fast-moving shortwave disturbance rotating around the deep upper
low will move through the area late tonight/Sunday morning. This
could fire off a few showers across the area during the morning
hours. In far northwestern portions of the area IF any precipitation
does accumulate, it would likely be in the form of freezing rain
owing to a very shallow layer of freezing temperatures underneath a
deep warm layer. Currently do not have any accumulation in the
forecast due to low POPs - only about 20 to 30%, however, it should
be noted that a light glazing up to a couple hundredths of an inch
cannot be ruled out entirely. The main area of concern would be
generally across Wilkinson County as well as Pointe Coupee and West
Feliciana Parishes.

Bigger impacts still headed this way as the weekend comes to a close
and the work week begins. A stronger upper level trough is forecast
to swing through the area Monday pushing a reinforcing front through
the area. Ahead of the front, large scale ascent will lead to
widespread precipitation. Still carrying categorical POPs of at
least 80% across the entire area. It's not a question of whether
precipitation will happen at this point, it's a question of what
kind of precipitation it will be.

Deep warm layer aloft should remain in place through most of the
event, which limits our precip types to three: rain, freezing rain
or sleet. southeastern areas look to remain above freezing
throughout most of the event, so am not carrying any kind of ice or
sleet accumulation at this time for areas generally southeast of a
line from Morgan City to Covington to Poplarville. While it's likely
some sleet or snow might mix into the precip in these areas toward
the tail end of the event, the duration and lighter nature of the
precip really doesn't lend itself to any accumulation as things
currently stand.

Farther northwest is where things get tricky. The depth of the cold
air is going to be the key factor here. Currently, am forecasting a
mix of freezing rain and sleet. The exact impacts will depend on how
much of the precip falls as sleet vs freezing rain. As far as
transportation is concerned, sleet is only marginally better since
sleet can still lead to slushy/slippery roads and it can still
freeze into a layer of ice on the surface. However, sleet is far
preferable to freezing rain when it comes to damage potential. Ice
accumulation of even one tenth of an inch can start to result in
weaker tree branches falling, and possibly leading to power outages.
With a quarter inch of freezing rain, widespread power outages
become more likely. Currently we are forecasting near or over a
quarter inch of ice (freezing rain) accumulation roughly from Krotz
Springs to McComb and northwest, with at least a glazing of ice
accumulation as far southeast as a line from Morgan City to
Covington to Poplarville.

Freezing/Frozen precipitation should begin in the far northwest
portion of the area before daybreak Monday, with accumulation
beginning around daybreak. That wintry precipitation will slowly
spread southeastward through the day, and is not expected to come to
an end until the late afternoon into the evening hours depending on
location.

Moving into Monday night, a modified arctic air mass will move into
the region behind the front. Temperatures will quickly plummet with
record lows forecast to be broken by several degrees in many places
for Feb 16. Am currently carrying hard freeze conditions pretty much
everywhere except portions of the south shore generally east of I-
310. Should mention that some of these areas could still see a hard
freeze if the temperature drops anymore than currently forecast -
especially along the west bank of the MS River through St. Charles,
Jefferson and Plaquemines Parishes to around Belle chasse. With
temperatures forecast to drop into the teens and lower 20s across
the hard freeze area, there will be potential for bursting pipes in
areas where pipes are not well insulated. We're just outside the
time frame for issuing the hard freeze and freeze watches for Monday
night/Tuesday morning, but it's likely they'll be issued with the
morning forecast update tomorrow.

Going into Tuesday, temperatures will struggle to rise above
freezing in northwestern portions of the area. Even throughout the
river parishes and north shore, only a few hours of temperatures
above freezing are expected. With that being said, any ice on the
ground will be hard pressed to melt and dry, meaning ice impacts
will likely linger into Wednesday morning for some areas.

95/DM

LONG TERM...

Trough begins to flatten and arctic air mass slowly retreats by
Wednesday as a southwesterly flow pattern takes hold on Wednesday
out ahead of another deep trough that is rapidly digging through
the Texas panhandle by Wednesday evening. Weather will remain dry
from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon with temperatures
finally rebounding into the middle and upper 50s in most areas
with a few lingering upper 40s and lower 50s for northern zones.
Trough will continue to dig south and eastward Wednesday night
with a surface low over southern Louisiana riding along a strong
cold front. The forecast area will be on the right side of the
colder air at this point bringing a significant rain event with up
to 1 to 2 inches of rainfall possible Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Trough will lift out on Thursday morning as a
rapidly intensifying surface low tracks northeasterly along the
southwesterly jet. The low travels from the the local area to the
Ohio valley by Thursday evening. Wintry weather less likely on the
back side of this system due to the trough lifting out of the
area along the southwesterly flow. Cool high pressure will build
in with dry and cool conditions on Thursday night and Friday. A
gradual warming trend will persist from Friday and beyond with
temperatures slowly returning to normal by the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION...

IFR to LIFR cigs will continue through the next 24 hours as
ceilings have only raised to around 1500 ASL at peak day heating.
The CIGS will lay below 700 feet for much of the night.

MARINE...

Offshore flow will continue for the next several days as arctic
air continues to dominate the region through the middle of next
week. Small craft advisories remain in effect through midnight
tonight as cold air advection gradient winds slowly relax by late
tonight. A deep trough will pull another low pressure system into
the northwestern Gulf by Monday morning. Winds will increase again
by Monday afternoon and Monday night behind the system. A brief
return flow will take hold in the coastal waters by Wednesday
night and Thursday morning ahead of another strong storm system.
Winds will increase from the north on Thursday night and Friday
behind the system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  38  29  33 /  10  20  40  90
BTR  30  40  31  34 /  10  20  50  90
ASD  35  48  38  45 /  10  10  20  90
MSY  36  47  41  45 /  10  10  30  90
GPT  38  50  41  48 /  10  10  20  90
PQL  39  52  41  52 /  10  10  10  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday
     afternoon for LAZ034>037-046>048.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ532-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday
     afternoon for MSZ068>071.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&