Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
329 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Thursday...
An upper level low pressure system is slowly expected to move
northward out of our area tonight through Thursday. Based on the
model consensus, an isolated shower or two will be possible along
the eastern portions of the Mississippi Coast over the next day or
two. Gusty winds (30-40mph) and frequent lightning will be the
main threats associated with these storms. Southerly surface winds
will help advect warm and moist air into the eastern MS Coast,
which will enhance lifting in the environment. There is also some
weak upper level divergence near Jackson County, MS in the models. But
PW values are expected to drop to around 1.5 inches by tomorrow as
the main boundary associated with the low pressure system
progresses eastward. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible inside any strong storms, mainly in Jackson County, but
it will not be a widespread concern for our area.

Temperatures will not change much over the next few days while
this low pressure system moves out of the area. There will be
plenty of sunshine for most of our area, so high temperatures
will still be in the mid- 80s, and low temperatures will be in
the upper 60s for most places over the next few days. While the
temperatures won't change that much, it will feel a bit nicer the
next few days though thanks to lower humdity after the system
progresses through. So, overall we will have drier and slightly
more comfortable weather in store for the next few days with the
chance of a shower or two in Jackson County tonight and tomorrow.
MSW

.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...
The cut off low is expected to move out of the region, a high
pressure begins to dominate the CWA with expected conditions to be
rather pleasant. As the high begins to dominate the CWA temps are
expect to start to come back up, however with the NW flow from
the ridge and drier air PoPs are still expected to remain fairly
low. The next potential weather maker, however, is expected to
start it's development over TX/CO/OK on Sunday. As a short wave
trough moves over the Rockies, it begins to transition into a low
as it hits the panhandle of TX/OK. Guidance is still pegging the
center of the low moving up towards the Great Lakes on Monday,
however there does appear to be a boundary that drags into the
ArkLaTx as the low moves off. With this boundary our afternoon
PoPs do increase, however it is a gradual increase in the Monday
and Tuesday afternoon hours. The main question will be how strong
the boundary is and how deep into the Deep South the boundary
progression will be. -KO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail at most area airports and will persist
through the forecast period for these airports. KMCB and GPT will
experience LIFR and IFR conditions around daybreak tomorrow
morning due to fog conditions. Vicinity showers will be possible
at GPT this afternoon for lingering scattered showers over the
area. HUM could see lower visibilities and MVFR conditions around
daybreak tomorrow due to fog conditions. VFR conditions will
return at MCB, GPT, and HUM tomorrow mid-morning and will persist
through the forecast period. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be northerly to northeasterly and moderate (<15 knots)
tonight through Saturday. Winds will be easterly and moderate (<15
knots) Sunday through Tuesday. Wave heights will correspond to
wind speeds. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  83  62  84 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  62  83  62  84 /   0  10   0  10
ASD  64  86  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  69  85  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  68  83  67  85 /  30  20  20  20
PQL  68  83  68  85 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
501 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

MSZ069-070-052245-
Pike MS-Amite MS-
501 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pike
and eastern Amite Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Smithdale, or 11 miles west of Mccomb, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mccomb, Magnolia, Summit, Smithdale and Mccomb Airport.

This includes Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 12
and 20.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3121 9039 3106 9066 3132 9078 3135 9071
      3135 9054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 327DEG 12KT 3131 9065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH