Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
333 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night...No significant
changes from previous forecasts in terms of thinking for the short
term period. Satellite imagery and surface observations clearly
indicate that an upper level trough axis and attendant surface
cold front are sweeping into northwest Louisiana this afternoon.
This trough axis and front will push through the forecast area
tonight and then clear the offshore waters by tomorrow afternoon.
In advance of this front, scattered convection will continue to
develop through the early evening hours mainly over portions of
Southeast Louisiana south of the I-10 corridor. There should then
be a brief window with little to no convective activity until the
front moves into northwestern portions of the CWA later this
evening. CAMS guidance continues to indicate a weak convective
line forming along the front and then sweeping south over the
western third of the forecast area through the overnight hours.
POP is reflective of this tonight, with higher POP across portions
of Southwest Mississippi and metro Baton Rouge and lower POP
closer to the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Colder and
drier air should also begin to advect into Southwest Mississippi
later tonight, and this should push lows down into the lower to
middle 60s. A weak elevated inversion combined with lingering low
level moisture will likely lead to a period of low overcast
stratus development late tonight into early tomorrow morning. By
mid-morning, enough dry air advection and mixing will overcome the
inversion and lead to rapidly clearing skies.

From tomorrow morning through the end of the short term period,
strong subsidence will lead to lower humidity and clear skies.
A 925mb thermal trough axis will also slide through the area, and
this will keep temperatures cooler than average. Temperatures
should bottom out in the lower 50s across the northern half of the
CWA both Wednesday and Thursday nights. Highs will also remain
cooler than average with readings only climbing into the upper 70s
on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday Night)...Strong subsidence and
a very dry and very stable airmass will dominate the forecast area
through the long term period. This dry and stable airmass will
keep skies mostly clear and humidity values low through the
period. The 925mb thermal trough axis is expected to shift east of
the region by Friday, and this will allow for a gradual warming
trend to take hold through the period. Daytime highs will rise
from the upper 70s and lower 80s on Friday into the middle to
upper 80s by Monday. Overnight lows will also modify with readings
rising from the 50s and lower 60s Friday night into the middle to
upper 60s by Monday night. Overall, a continuation of drier and
more pleasant conditions is expected through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z...A few showers and some isolated TS will leave some
VCTS at terminals through 10Z.  Winds will increase from the north
late tonight as FROPA is occuring overnight. Ceilings will be VFR
through the period with skies becoming clear after 18Z today. Winds
could gust in excess of 25 mph at NEW and MSY through the morning
and early afternoon and then again after 00Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...A strong cold front will sweep through the coastal
waters late tonight into tomorrow morning. Strong thermal mixing
over the warm waters in the wake of the front will allow boundary
layer flow of 20 to 25 knots to mix down to the surface. Seas will
respond to these winds and increase to 6 to 8 feet over the open
Gulf waters by tomorrow night.  As a result, a period of small
craft advisory headlines is expected beginning tomorrow and
persisting through Thursday. As high pressure becomes more
settled over the area on Friday, winds will fall below 15 knots
and seas should decrease to 4 feet or less. These lighter winds
and lower seas will persist into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  64  78  53 /  30  50  10   0
BTR  88  67  80  55 /  30  40  10   0
ASD  90  68  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
MSY  90  71  81  62 /  40  30  10   0
GPT  88  70  81  57 /  30  20  10   0
PQL  88  70  82  54 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

PG

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