Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
352 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
The seemingly never-ending wet period continues. The upper level
pattern isn't particularly normal for the middle of the summer. A
deep, slow moving trough extends from Vermont down to almost
Louisiana. A frontal boundary associated with the trough may make it
to I-20, but thats about it. Regardless, this trough over the
general region means absolutely no inhibition to stop numerous
showers and thunderstorms from developing. Looking at model PW's,
they look to jump up from 2" yesterday to 2.3-2.4" today. That'll
give those numerous storms today the potential to produce very heavy
rainfall rates. With a similar environment last week, we saw hourly
rainfall rates of 2-4" in an hour and isolated areas of 6+ inches.
Expect that today. Where it falls will determine if flash flooding
occurs. What makes this environment different from say this past
weekend, is its not diurnally driven. Even though the sun sets,
we'll probably still have waves of convection passing across the CWA
tonight. It'll roll into Tuesday with a yet another day of near 100%
coverage like today.

The trough will finally start to slowly shift east on Wednesday.
While appreciable changes locally will be hard to see, will probably
start to see small drop in coverage and lower high-end rainfall
totals for the day.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through next Weekend)...
Thursday and Friday still looks to be wet as PWs still hitting
around to 2 inch mark, but the upper level trough that has been
parked over the eastern part of the US should finally move as the
ridge to our west in the central CONUS begins to build in.
Saturday and Sunday we will have weak high pressure build in along
with a little less moisture which should help cut down on the PoPs a
bit. Unfortunately, the slightly drier pattern would mean our
temperatures will likely get into the 90s with dew points around the
70s, which will bring heat indices into the 100s easily. The ridging
over the central CONUS continues to amplify but still expecting
diurnally driven thunderstorms through the whole period, just not to
the extent that we have been stuck in for the past couple of weeks.

BL
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR to MVFR conditions are expected the rest of this early morning
with ceilings bouncing from clear to 2kft decks. Isolated showers
with substantially increase in coverage  Temporary drops into
MVFR/IFR are possible for any terminal impacted by any showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is currently building in across the Gulf of Mexico
from the east. That ridge is centered in the western Atlantic. It's
far enough away that the local pressure gradient is fairly weak but
strong enough to keep flow consistent. Expect mostly 5 to 10 knot
winds with seas 2 feet or less. A boundary will approach from the
north early this week but not make it to the coastal waters. As it
dissipates, a new surface ridge will develop in the eastern Gulf and
slowly track across the coastal waters. That will break down the
local wind field and bring seas to not more than a light chop at
best.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  71  84  71 / 100  90  90  40
BTR  89  73  86  73 / 100  90 100  50
ASD  89  74  86  74 /  90  90 100  60
MSY  90  78  87  77 /  90  90  90  70
GPT  88  74  86  75 /  80  90  90  70
PQL  88  74  86  75 /  80  80  90  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
307 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

MSZ068-192045-
Wilkinson-
307 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WILKINSON COUNTY...

At 306 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fort Adams, or
16 miles northeast of Simmesport, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville and Fort Adams.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3125 9120 3100 9120 3100 9162 3104 9156
      3107 9157 3113 9163 3117 9159 3122 9158
      3124 9154 3122 9153 3122 9151 3125 9147
      3130 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 271DEG 15KT 3110 9158

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
309 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

LAZ039-MSZ071-077-192045-
Washington-Walthall-Pearl River-
309 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
PARISH...SOUTHEASTERN WALTHALL AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER
COUNTIES...

At 308 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Varnado, or 7
miles southwest of Sandy Hook, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Poplarville, Varnado and Angie.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3107 8984 3101 8984 3100 8983 3100 8954
      3083 8955 3080 8984 3089 8993 3101 8997
      3108 8988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 250DEG 15KT 3093 8985

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
322 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

MSZ081-192100-
Harrison-
322 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HARRISON COUNTY...

At 322 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Lyman to near Long
Beach. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Long Beach, St. Martin, D'iberville, Saucier,
Lyman, Latimer and Gulfport Airport.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Mississippi between mile markers 24 and 47.
 Interstate 110 in Mississippi near mile marker 1, and between mile
markers 3 and 4.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3038 8907 3036 8909 3030 8928 3043 8925
      3051 8926 3062 8932 3068 8915 3067 8889
      3043 8888 3043 8899 3042 8901 3042 8891
      3041 8887 3039 8887
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 251DEG 16KT 3054 8923 3040 8922

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
338 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

LAZ034-035-192130-
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
338 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WEST
FELICIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISHES...

At 338 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Bayou Current to 6 miles east of
Port Barre. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Roads, Livonia, Fordoche, Morganza, Lottie and Batchelor.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3084 9180 3087 9150 3081 9145 3058 9145
      3053 9150 3053 9174 3061 9176 3067 9173
      3071 9173 3074 9176 3078 9176 3082 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 264DEG 20KT 3075 9181 3059 9186

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

MSZ081-082-192115-
Jackson-Harrison-
351 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HARRISON AND
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 351 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northwest of
Latimer, or 11 miles north of Biloxi, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Biloxi, Vancleave and Latimer.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3052 8873 3048 8900 3065 8907 3068 8900
      3067 8890 3068 8889 3073 8889 3074 8887
      3073 8865 3055 8865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 248DEG 25KT 3060 8894

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
415 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

MSZ082-192200-
Jackson-
415 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY...

At 415 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Vancleave, or 16 miles northwest of Escatawpa, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Escatawpa, Big Point, Hurley, Vancleave, Wade and Latimer.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3046 8885 3073 8884 3074 8841 3053 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 249DEG 28KT 3067 8873

KLG