Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
619 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.AVIATION (00z TAF package)...

Expect VFR conditions through the period. Based on radar, will be
carrying VCTS for the next couple hours (until about 02z) at
a couple terminals, KBTR and KHUM, but may also need them at KASD
and KHDC. At this time, don't anticipate direct impacts, but will
continue to monitor. There will be a non-zero threat of TSRA
Wednesday afternoon at KHUM/KMSY/KNEW, but not enough to carry in
the forecast at this time range. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday)...

We are still outlooked for possible severe weather  through this
evening tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already
developing over parts of the area mainly on the southshore.
Confidence in any potential storms becoming severe today remains low
but cannot be ruled out. Rain chances should start to decrease for
the day around 7 tonight. Can expect a brief dry period on Wednesday
across the area as high pressure remains centered over the northern-
central Gulf.

By Thursday, weak high pressure in the north Gulf will gradually move
east out of the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
remain relatively low during the day. Tides may start to see their
rise late thursday night into Friday morning as broad low pressure
in the southwest Gulf is gradually expected to become a tropical
depression moving northward through the western Gulf. /TDB/

LONG TERM (Friday and beyond)...
The main concern in the long term forecast continues to be the local
impacts  from the tropical system mainly Friday through the weekend.
Latest update from the National Hurricane Center has the chance of
development at 40% over the next 48 hours and a 80% chance of
development over the next 5 days. Conditions will begin to
deteriorate on Friday as heavy rainfall starts to impact the area.
Tides increasing on Friday will pose a threat of coastal flooding
Friday through the weekend. Regardless of exact development, heavy
rainfall will be a big threat that could potentially impact our
area with areas of flooding.

After collaborating with neighbor offices, opted to increase PoPs
for the weekend above what the NBM was suggesting. Although
confidence in formation continues to increase day to day, it is
still too far out to know any additional potential impacts from this
tropical system. We will continue to monitor National Hurricane
Center for latest forecast updates. In the meantime everyone should
be working to be sure they are prepared and know their safety
plan. /TDB/

MARINE...

High pressure over the area will cause winds to stay near 10 to
15 knot range through Wednesday. By Thursday, winds and wave
heights will start to see their increase as broad low pressure
gradually moves northward in the Gulf bring a potential excess of
heavy rainfall associated with a tropical cyclone to the coastal
area lasting through the weekend. It is still to soon to know
specific details of impacts from this system may bring, but will
continue monitoring updated forecasts from NHC. With winds greater
than 20 knots and seas more than 6ft expected over the weekend,
there be a need for some headlines. However, forecasters will make
that decision when we are closer to the onsite of the event and
confidence continues to improve. /TDB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  92  67  91 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  73  93  72  93 /  20  10   0  10
ASD  73  93  70  91 /  10  10   0  10
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  20  20   0  10
GPT  74  92  72  90 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  73  93  70  90 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
616 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

LAZ056-059-065-066-160000-
Lower Terrebonne-Upper Terrebonne-Assumption-Upper Lafourche-
616 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN TERREBONNE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ASSUMPTION PARISHES...

At 615 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Amelia to near Schriever. Movement was
south at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dulac and Schriever.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms were previously severe and may re-intensify, so be
certain to monitor local radio stations and available television
stations for additional information and possible warnings from the
National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2947 9125 2955 9123 2960 9119 2961 9118
      2959 9116 2963 9108 2965 9111 2969 9110
      2974 9110 2973 9088 2940 9069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 352DEG 17KT 2968 9111 2967 9090

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
639 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

LAZ047-048-050-160015-
Livingston-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-
639 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WEST BATON ROUGE...
WESTERN LIVINGSTON AND CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISHES...

At 638 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Brownfields, or
near Baker, moving slowly south at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Zachary, Baker, Denham Springs, Port Allen, Oak Hills
Place, Westminster, Old Jefferson, Merrydale, Inniswold, Shenandoah,
Brownfields, Greenwell Spring, Village St. George and Baton Rouge
Airport.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 154 and 165.
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 1 and 9.
 Interstate 110 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 8.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3065 9120 3065 9094 3037 9100 3036 9106
      3049 9131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 015DEG 8KT 3054 9112

JRK

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