Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
333 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday Night) Deep tropical moisture
continues to stream northward coupled with a trough axis over the
area. This trough extends well into the SE gulf. All
watches/advisories will remain in place as another in a line of
rain bands move into the area this morning. Although numbers are
not impressive enough variables are there to give rise to a strong
or isoalted severe and in these tropically soaked environments,
one can never rule out a tornado. But the main focus will continue
to be a rainfall. Amounts are not expected to be impressive but
it won't take impressive numbers to cause problems at the moment.
The amounts of 2 to 3 inches with higher local amounts will
suffice as the line to the west makes its way into the area slowly
and is expected to weaken as it does, but as daylight temps climb
and induce another set of sh/ts where these lines are able to
focus the activity, these numbers could be realized where this
line goes stationary. All of this mess is eventually forced west
as the Bermuda high ridges into the area. This will be a slow
process and may take two days to fully develop. Long story short,
another rain day is possible for the western half of the area
Friday, but Saturday should see most if not the entire area
relatively dry. There will still be the stray shower or
thunderstorm but nothing like what everyone has had to deal with
for a while now.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)...

High pressure will remain in control of the area weather through at
least the first part of the work week.  The high pressure and
associated subsidence aloft should suppress local rain chances.
Could see a few showers sneak into western areas on Tuesday, but
chances remain low enough not to mention in the forecast. With no
rain to cool off the afternoon temperatures, and generally only
partly cloudy skies, expect afternoon temperatures to rise into the
mid to upper 80s each afternoon. A few places could cross the 90
degree mark, mainly Sunday and Monday afternoons. Overnight lows
will generally be in the mid to upper 60s north and upper 60s to
lower 70s south, which is near or slightly above normal for this
time of year. Pattern begins to shift again by Wednesday. With
ridging beginning to weaken, isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible in the afternoon.

95/DM

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR cloud deck currently in place will persist through most of the
day today. Meso models indicate that convection currently moving
south to north over southwest Louisiana will gradually shift east
through the early morning hours. Latest TAFs attempt to time out the
start of SHRA and TS impacts, which will likely be a problem into
the afternoon hours. IFR conditions or worse are possible due to
reduced visibility as stronger storms pass over terminals.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...moderate to strong onshore flow will continue over the
area through the end of the week. Most areas will have southeast
winds of 20 to 25 knots and gusty conditions. But areas along and
west of the Miss River will be higher with SE winds of 20 to 30kt
and gusts to 35kt at times. These conditions will slowly ease over
the coming days dropping back to around 15kt by the weekend and
possibly lower as we move into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  67  82  64 /  90  30  30   0
BTR  80  70  81  67 / 100  60  60  10
ASD  80  70  81  66 /  90  40  30   0
MSY  81  73  81  71 / 100  50  50  10
GPT  80  71  81  68 /  60  20  10   0
PQL  80  69  81  66 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ049-050-
     057-058-060-061-066>068-072-075-077.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ058>061-063>070-072-075>078.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ064-069-070-
     076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ068>071-077-080.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ081-082.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ080>082.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ080.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
342 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

LAZ034-046>050-056>061-063-067>069-077-200945-
St. Charles-Livingston-Ascension-Lower Jefferson-Pointe Coupee-St.
James-East Baton Rouge-Lower Plaquemines-Western
Orleans-Iberville-Lower Lafourche-Assumption-St. John The
Baptist-West Baton Rouge-Upper Plaquemines-Upper Lafourche-Upper
Jefferson-
342 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS...
SOUTHERN POINTE COUPEE...NORTHERN LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ASCENSION...
ST. JAMES...ST. CHARLES...WEST BATON ROUGE...SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON...
IBERVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES AND ASSUMPTION PARISHES...

At 342 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Loreauville to 7 miles northwest of
Pierre Part to 6 miles east of Mathews to near Burrwood. Movement was
north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Thibodaux, Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Plaquemine, Port
Allen, Napoleonville, Reserve, Hahnville, Laplace, Oak Hills Place,
Port Sulphur, Avondale, Marrero, Larose, Cut Off, Belle Chasse,
Harahan, Westwego and St. Gabriel.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 128 and 218.
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 1 and 9.
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 10.
 Interstate 110 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Interstate 310 between mile markers 1 and 11.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2925 8950 2930 8990 2948 8984 2943 9002
      2926 8995 2964 9044 2991 9122 3050 9175
      3069 9173 3031 9055 3017 9057 3023 9041
      3009 9041 2940 8952 2941 8957 2940 8957
      2939 8956 2938 8933 2896 8938 2894 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0842Z 177DEG 27KT 3011 9170 3000 9132 2970 9045 2889
8940