Special Marine Warning 368, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
353 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Thursday...
Tonight into Tuesday morning, a frontal system is expected to move
through our area, increasing rain chances. Southerly surface winds
will help to enhance the lifting and moisture advection into the
area. Upper level divergence will help to enhance buoyancy and
help with efficiency. PW values will remain above the 75th
percentile for the SPC sounding climatology for the next few days.
These storms will have the potential for locally heavy rainfall
overnight, especially in the vulnerable areas. Lightning will also
be a concern overnight as well.

Tuesday through Thursday, the frontal boundary will linger over
the area. Wednesday and Thursday, the boundary refires
convection, mainly during the afternoon hours. Southerly surface
winds will help to enhance lifting and moisture advection over the
area Tuesday through Thursday. PW values will remain over the
75th percentile for the next few days. Heavy rainfall inside of
thunderstorm development will be a concern with this frontal
system moving through, particularly Tuesday. Lightning will also
be a concern as well. MSW

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Monday...
Friday through Monday, more of a normal summertime pattern will
begin to dominate the area. Rain chances will be enhanced, mainly
during the afternoon hours. Southerly surface winds will help to
enhance moisture advection in the atmosphere. PW values will
remain high through this time period. Scattered thunderstorms and
showers will be possible daily during the peak daytime heating
hours. Lightning will be a concern inside thunderstorm development
as well. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Some vicinity showers
will be possible through the afternoon hours. Temporary periods of
showers and storms will be possible at all area airports which
will cause lower visibilities and ceilings, and TEMPO groups are
in place during the best timing for these showers and storms.
Overnight tonight through the end of the forecast period, MVFR
conditions will be possible due to low ceilings and vicinity
showers. MCB may get to IFR conditions around daybreak tomorrow
briefing due to fog and vicinity showers before returning to MVFR
conditions for the end of the forecast period. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Friday, winds will be southerly and moderate (<15
knots). Friday afternoon through Monday, winds will be easterly to
southeasterly and moderate (<15 knots). Wave heights will
correspond to the wind speeds. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  83  70  89 /  80  80  20  50
BTR  73  86  73  90 /  80  90  30  60
ASD  73  86  72  89 /  80  80  40  70
MSY  76  87  76  89 /  80  80  40  70
GPT  74  85  74  87 /  90  80  40  70
PQL  72  84  72  87 /  90  90  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
638 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW SLIDELL           30.29N 89.80W
06/21/2021                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   PUBLIC

            4-6 IN OF STANDING WATER ON THE BACK PATIO.

&&

KO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
749 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE METAIRIE          29.99N 90.14W
06/21/2021                   JEFFERSON          LA   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 6-8 IN OF WATER OVER THE ROAD
            WAYS.

&&

KO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
818 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

LAZ061-064-070-075>078-MSZ080-220145-
Southeast St. Tammany-Western Orleans-Upper St. Bernard-Eastern
Orleans-Northwest St. Tammany-Lower St. Bernard-Upper
Jefferson-Hancock-
818 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ST. BERNARD...
ORLEANS...SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY...NORTHERN JEFFERSON PARISHES IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 818 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Metairie to near Meraux to near
Shell Beach. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Slidell, Metairie, East New Orleans, Chalmette, Lake
Catherine, Pearlington, Lacombe, Shell Beach, Arabi, Meraux, Violet,
Slidell Airport and Lakefront Airport.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 2977 8972 2994 8993 3000 9021 3018 8968
      3026 8998 3039 8995 3031 8959 3019 8944
      3016 8966 3015 8963 3002 8972 3002 8984
      2994 8984 2996 8973 2987 8968 2987 8961
      3008 8949 3005 8938
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 218DEG 32KT 3003 9009 2999 8990 2987 8974

PG