Special Marine Warning 36, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
542 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

.DISCUSSION... Strong low pressure system will continue to move
eastward through northern Arkansas this evening bringing a frontal
boundary into the region. This system will bring a QLCS through
the forecast area ahead of the frontal boundary this evening and
early tonight. Instability and shear have been prevalent through
the daytime hours with Cape values at the 18Z sounding as high as
3300 and a helicity values over 300. The sounding has been capped
at 700 MB throughout the early afternoon with mainly low vertical
showers forming in the forecast area ahead of the main squall
line. The cap has eroded as the main squall line approaches.
Directional shear is very minimal in the lower levels with strong
200 degree directional winds all the way up to 850 MB. Cape values
will continue to drop below 2000 as sunset approaches along with
lacking in shear as the winds continue to remain uniform with a
decrease in speed shear as well. With this in mind...right line
supercell storms out ahead of the main line are becoming less
likely as the evening wears on. The main concern will be damaging
winds along the main squall line. and large hail as WBZ holds
around 11k ft. Damaging winds most likely from the speed of motion
as some storms are racing northeastward at around 50 mph along
the main QLCS. Isolated tornadoes do remain possible along the
QLCS as spinning along the line could occur through the evening.
Showers and storms will abruptly come to an end by late tonight as
frontal boundary brings cooler and dryer air behind it.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
Low pressure system will race through the Tennessee valley on
Thursday with ridging building over the Rockies. Surface high
pressure will build in behind it bringing dry and below average
temperatures with it. High pressure will remain in place through
the weekend with a slow warming trend through Sunday. Low pressure
will bring an unsettled pattern to the far southeast keeping
temperatures on the cooler side for our area on the back side of
it. Upper level ridging will begin to build early next week as
surface high remains in place through at least Monday. This will
bring a continued dry pattern with temperatures rebounding to
around 80 by Tuesday. Another strong low pressure system will
move out of the four corners once again on Tuesday...moving
rapidly into the southern Plains by Tuesday or Tuesday night. The
Euro is the slower model as the GFS is about 24 hours earlier
with a Monday night event. This will bring our next cold front and
rainfall event into the area. Depending on strength and
track...another severe weather event is possible somewhere along
the Mississippi river valley around the Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR conditions will be likely at all terminals through at least
6Z as a squall will produce reduced VIS and strong gusty winds.
Winds will remain high both ahead and behind the front with gusts
as high as 40 mph possible even outside thunderstorms. Conditions
will gradually improve by 12Z Thursday with SKC...improving VIS
and VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is expected to impact the northern gulf waters tonight
with sh/ts. Some of these could be strong or severe between the
hours of 6pm and 2am tonight. The cold front will shift winds from
southerly to west and NW by Thursday morning. Wind speeds will rise
today into the 20-25kt range and small craft advisories will remain
until wind speeds ease to around 15kt possibly by Friday afternoon
or evening. Saturday winds will shift to NE and east and rise to 20-
25kt with some rain through the first part of next week. Winds will
shift to SE Tuesday and ease to 10-15kt ahead of the next cold front
that will likely stall by mid week well inland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  64  43  57 /  80   0   0   0
BTR  48  66  44  60 /  60   0   0   0
ASD  51  67  43  61 /  70   0   0   0
MSY  53  67  48  61 /  70   0   0   0
GPT  54  67  45  61 /  60   0   0   0
PQL  54  68  45  61 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ040-046>050-
     056>070-072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MSZ077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
849 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

LAZ040-MSZ077-080-081-180215-
St. Tammany-Harrison-Hancock-Pearl River-
849 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ST.
TAMMANY PARISH...WEST CENTRAL HARRISON...HANCOCK AND SOUTH CENTRAL
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 848 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Pearl River to near Slidell.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Slidell, Picayune, Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Diamondhead, Pearl River,
Kiln, Pearlington, Shoreline Park, Stennis Space Center and Slidell
Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3060 8929 3037 8934 3034 8938 3034 8935
      3028 8937 3025 8942 3018 8945 3019 8953
      3015 8961 3016 8962 3017 8960 3017 8972
      3026 8990 3051 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 242DEG 37KT 3042 8973 3025 8983

KLG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
904 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALKER                  30.48N 90.87W
03/17/2021                   LIVINGSTON         LA   PUBLIC

            CAJUN NAVY VIA SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS ROOF DAMAGE TO A
            HOME. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

BL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
917 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

LAZ040-MSZ080-081-180315-
St. Tammany-Harrison-Hancock-
917 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ST.
TAMMANY PARISH...HARRISON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 916 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Kiln to near Pearlington. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Slidell, Long Beach, Bay St. Louis, Waveland,
Diamondhead, Kiln, Pearlington, Lyman, Shoreline Park, Stennis Space
Center and Gulfport Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3038 8901 3030 8929 3036 8928 3037 8935
      3034 8938 3034 8934 3032 8932 3025 8942
      3018 8945 3019 8948 3017 8958 3018 8961
      3016 8966 3018 8968 3018 8976 3022 8981
      3051 8959 3062 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 242DEG 39KT 3043 8943 3019 8958

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
919 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

LAZ059-061>064-068>070-180315-
Orleans-Lower Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Lower Jefferson-Lower St.
Bernard-Upper Lafourche-Upper Plaquemines-Upper Jefferson-
919 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ST. BERNARD...
ORLEANS...EAST CENTRAL LAFOURCHE...CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN
PLAQUEMINES PARISHES...

At 919 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Violet to 8 miles
northeast of Cut Off. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Chalmette, Harvey, East New Orleans, Timberlane, Belle
Chasse, Port Sulphur, Gretna, Jean Lafitte, Lake Catherine, Woodmere,
Violet, Terrytown, Lafitte, Meraux, Poydras, Myrtle Grove, Pointe A
La Hache, Estelle and Shell Beach.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 2956 9033 3015 8988 3015 8963 3000 8985
      2987 8970 3008 8948 2989 8937 2989 8923
      2982 8942 2976 8929 2978 8936 2979 8947
      2966 8945 2975 8965 2973 8961 2963 8949
      2961 8973 2956 8971 2954 8969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 256DEG 30KT 2994 8978 2961 9023

KLG

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