Special Marine Warning 14, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
422 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021

.Discussion...

Surface temperatures remain above freezing which has kept snow
potentials low. As of now, saturation in the upper levels have
favored only rain precipitation for the area so no snow accumulation
is expected. Winds have been rather gusty mainly over marine zones
tonight, but should start to calm down a bit in the next few hours.
Rain will begin to diminish as we near daybreak today as the low
moves off to the east. There will likely be some lingering showers
mainly behind east of I-55 after daybreak as the high pressure
system builds over the area. Can expect for low clouds and strong
cold air advection to keep conditions cold and cloudy for the entire
day. Breezy winds out of the north will help maintain windchill in
the 30s with overnight lows at or near freezing.These freezing low
temperatures are mainly along and north of I-10/12.There were very
minimal changes made to the near term forecast as it pretty much has
remained on track. The min temperatures were bumped up only slightly
to fall in line with our neighbors.

Clouds should finally clear out bringing in some sunshine on
Tuesday, however temperatures will still remain fairly low.Can
expect another night of freezing temperatures for the same areas
mentioned above late Tuesday going into Wednesday morning with the
help of radiational cooling and light winds.

Temperatures should begin to steadily increase back into the 60s by
at least Thursday. A cold front is expected to move across the area
at some point on Thursday night into Friday morning. Confidence
remains low that we will receive light precipitation behind this
front if any. Otherwise, dry and cool conditions are expected to
prevail through this forecast period. /TDB/

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions will stick around for a few more hours
before dropping down to IFR and remaining there for the rest of the
forecast period. Main concern is for ceilings but visibilities may
also dip down due to rain. Not expecting any snow or ice outside of
possibly a brief period at KMCB. Winds will also be a bit elevated
out of the north at 10 to 15 knots. Ceilings will begin to raise
overnight tomorrow night but significant improvements will not
happen in the forecast period itself. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty winds at and above gale force continue to persist out of the
north tonight as the low pressure system moves across the coastal
waters. Gale warning remains in effect till 6 AM CST for zones west
of the MS river delta this morning to account for these winds. This
warning will be followed by a Small Craft Advisory that will be in
effect till 6 PM CST this evening. Surface winds will remain strong
behind the low as it exits this morning with rain and storms
diminishing as we move through the day. These winds should steadily
diminish Tuesday as conditions start to improve. The next front to
affect the area will be late Thursday night into Friday morning./TDB/

&&&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  43  28  52  31 /  70   0   0   0
BTR  44  30  52  34 /  40   0   0   0
ASD  48  33  54  34 /  70   0   0   0
MSY  48  37  52  39 /  40   0   0   0
GPT  48  34  54  35 /  80   0   0   0
PQL  48  34  55  34 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ550-552-
     570-572.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ550-552-
     570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ552-570-
     572.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ552-570-
     572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-555-557-575-577.

&&