Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS New Orleans, LA

657 
WWUS54 KLIX 072242
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
542 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

LAC057-072252-
/O.EXP.KLIX.SV.W.0132.000000T0000Z-210707T2245Z/
Lafourche LA-
542 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH
WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 2940 9041 2949 9034 2944 9018 2932 9028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 288DEG 12KT 2939 9025 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Saturday...
Tonight, rain showers and storms will be dissipating by the
evening hours and will continue to diminish after sunset. The rest
of the evening is expected to be fairly dry.

Thursday through Saturday, Gulf moisture and summertime pattern
will dominate the area for the next few days. Southerly surface
winds will help to enhance moisture advection and warm air
advection into the area, which will increase the lifting in the
environment. Some weak upper level divergence, mainly on Thursday,
will help to enhance the buoyancy and efficiency of any rainfall
that will develop. PW values will remain above the 75th
percentile (around 2.10) Thursday and Friday as well. Saturday PW
values will be lower than the 75th percentile (1.8). Overall,
looking at the models and the parameters, there will be the
potential for locally heavy rainfall inside thunderstorm
development, particularly Thursday and Friday. The best chances
for some of this locally heavy rainfall will be during the
afternoon peak daytime heating hours every day for the next few
days. There will be the potential for higher rainfall rates as
well inside of scattered thunderstorm development over the next
few days. While severe weather is not expected, lightning and
gusty winds will also be a concern inside these storms where they
develop. Waterspouts will also be a concern over the marine
waters. MSW

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Wednesday...
An upper level low pressure system is expected to move through the
area Sunday and linger into Monday, enhancing rainfall chances
these days. There is some uncertainty in the models regarding the
strength of the ridge that could push into the area. But general
model consensus lately has shown the ridge backing off a bit,
providing more influence for enhanced rainfall continuing into the
weekend as well. Southerly surface winds will help to enhance the
warm air advection and moisture advection over the area, which
will enhance the lifting in the environment. The best chances for
higher rainfall amounts will be Sunday overnight into Monday
morning. PW values will be hovering around or above the 75th
percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology mainly Sunday
night into Monday morning. As this system moves through, there
will be the potential for heavy rainfall and higher rainfall rates
inside of thunderstorms that develop. Lightning and gusty winds
will also be a concern. Waterspouts over the marine areas will be
a hazard that will be possible as well inside thunderstorms over
the marine waters.

Tuesday and Wednesday, summertime pattern returns to dominate the
area. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day,
mainly during the peak daytime heating afternoon hours. Southerly
surface winds will help to continue to enhance lifting and
moisture advection in the environment. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible inside stronger thunderstorm development.
Lightning and gusty winds will be a concern as well. Waterspouts
will also likely be a concern over the marine waters. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Package...
MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Temporary periods of
showers and storms will cause lower visibilities, MVFR
conditions, and lower ceilings at all area airports this afternoon
into the evening hours. VFR conditions will return by the morning
hours tomorrow at all area airports. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through next Wednesday, winds will be moderate (<15 knots)
and southerly to southeasterly. Wave heights will correspond to
the wind speeds and will be mainly 2 feet or less. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  87  73  84 /  40  60  30  70
BTR  74  87  73  84 /  50  60  40  70
ASD  74  87  76  86 /  40  50  30  70
MSY  78  88  78  87 /  40  60  30  70
GPT  75  87  76  86 /  50  40  30  70
PQL  74  87  76  85 /  60  40  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&