River Flood Warning 119, NWS New Orleans, LA

599 
WGUS84 KLIX 121541
FLSLIX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1041 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...

  Bogue Falaya River At Camp Covington affecting St. Tammany Parish.

LAC103-121645-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-210512T1541Z/
/CGSL1.1.ER.210512T0309Z.210513T0000Z.210514T0112Z.NO/
1041 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Bogue Falaya River At Camp Covington 
has been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Bogue Falaya River At Camp Covington.
* At 8:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 44.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 45.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 35.4 feet Monday 
  morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3052 9004 3052 9014 3061 9019 3060 9010

$$

JFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
250 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Biggest forecast concern in the short term is the ongoing heavy
rain. Current rainfall totals have been widespread amounts of
4-5 inches and with swaths of 8-10 inches especially on the south
shore. Unfortunately, we already have high PW with our 12z
sounding showing 1.8 inches which looking at SPC's sounding
climatology is very moist for this time of year. Moist air
advection will continue and the environment continues to be
favorable for thunderstorm development with plenty of CAPE. A
stalled boundary has been draped right along the Louisiana coast.
Storms have been firing off on this boundary. We currently are in
a lull in terms of rainfall but expect more rounds later tonight
and tomorrow. Because of the potential for flash flooding, will
be keeping the current flash flood watch through tomorrow 18z.
Depending on how the evolution of the thunderstorm development
goes Wednesday morning, an extension into Thursday may be needed.
This wet period should begin to taper off on land Thursday as the
boundary pushes offshore.

.LONG TERM (Friday and beyond)...
Once we get out of the short term, we get a break from all the
rain Friday and Saturday and offshore flow will help flush some of
the excess rain out.   An upper level low will close off around
northern California and slowly trek southeastward and a shortwave.
Rain will return to the area starting Monday of next week.
Guidance mostly agrees on decent PoPs Monday through Wednesday but
the agreement diverges on exact timing and potential amounts so
left the NBM for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Visibilities and ceilings have widely varied due to
thunderstorms in the area. The thunderstorms are scattered for the
most part, but some training convection may cause a specific
terminal to be impacted for several hours. Any terminal impacted
by a thunderstorm could have ceilings under 1000 feet,
visibilities reduced to 1 mile and wind gusts up to 50 knots.
There will be some breaks in the afternoon but will pick up again
especially after 06z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow of around 10 knots will remain through tomorrow then
will switch over to offshore. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible with strong and erratic winds possible in the strongest
thunderstorms. Once the front clears the nearshore coastal waters,
winds will remain relatively light until late Thursday into
Friday then bump up to around 15 knots. It will then begin to
slack again and move back to southeasterly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  74  57  75 /  70  70  40  10
BTR  67  77  60  77 /  70  80  30  10
ASD  67  79  62  77 /  80  80  50  20
MSY  71  79  67  77 /  70  80  50  20
GPT  67  79  62  75 /  70  70  60  30
PQL  66  79  61  75 /  70  70  60  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.

GM...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for GMZ530.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...&&

BL