Heat Advisory 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

316 
WWUS74 KLIX 141647 AAA
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1147 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

LAZ034>037-039-046>050-056>061-063>065-071-072-075>078-MSZ068>071-
077-080>082-141800-
/O.CAN.KLIX.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210615T0000Z/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-
Assumption-St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-
St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Northern Tangipahoa-Southern Tangipahoa-
Northwest St. Tammany-Southeast St. Tammany-Western Orleans-
Eastern Orleans-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-Hancock-
Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of New Roads, Lettsworth, Livonia, Spillman,
St. Francisville, Wakefield, Jackson, Clinton, Felps, Darlington,
Easleyville, Greensburg, Montpelier, Bogalusa, Enon, Franklinton,
Bayou Sorrel, Plaquemine, White Castle, Port Allen, Addis, 
Brusly, Baton Rouge, Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Prairieville, 
Denham Springs, Watson, Walker, Pierre Part, Labadieville, 
Paincourtville, Convent, Lutcher, Gramercy, Laplace, Reserve, 
Thibodaux, Raceland, Larose, Destrehan, Norco, Metairie, Kenner, 
Belle Chasse, Chalmette, Violet, Houma, Bayou Cane, Amite, 
Kentwood, Roseland, Wilmer, Hammond, Robert, Ponchatoula, 
Mandeville, Covington, Lacombe, Slidell, New Orleans, 
East New Orleans, Centreville, Dolorosa, Fort Adams, Woodville, 
Gillsberg, Gloster, Smithdale, Liberty, McComb, Dexter, Salem, 
Tylertown, Crossroads, McNeil, Poplarville, Picayune, 
Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Diamondhead, Gulfport, Pascagoula, 
Ocean Springs, Moss Point, Gautier, and St. Martin
1147 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures and humidity levels are currently lower than 
originally expected. Heat index values may still rise to 100 to 
105 degrees this afternoon, so continue to exercise caution during
outdoor activities.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
407 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...
A broad upper level ridge centered near West Texas extends from
northern Mexico to Canada. The base of an upper level trough is
currently near the Great Lakes and will push farther south into
the Ohio River Valley today. The CWA is on the southeast edge of
the ridge. That means influences of both of those features can be
expected locally. Temps soared into the mid 90s and the same will
likely occur again today. The very wet soils from the widespread
1- 3" that fell yesterday should hold dewpoints in the mid 70s
even as the day progresses into the afternoons. That combo of mid
90 air temps with mid 70 dewpoints will allow heat indicies to
reach into the 108 to 112 degree range for much of the CWA. Thus
will be issuing a heat advisory with this forecast package. The
only possible relief from those hot temps will be scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. The NBM seems to be on the high side of
guidance with MET, MAV and multiple CAMs indicate coverage closer
to 20% than the NBM's 50%+. Decided to split the difference and go
with areal POPs between those values. In regards to any storms
that do develop, the stronger ones will be borderline SPS/SVR
based on BUFR soundings indicated high CAPE values combined with
high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. Damaging winds and
hail will be the main threats.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be a gradual transition into a brief
drier period as the ridge to the west slightly expands farther east
over the CWA and the trough to the east pulls farther away. There'll
still be afternoon convection but coverage will be a little less
each day with possibly none as we end the week.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
Focus for the long term portion of the forecast remains on the
possibility of tropical development in the southern Gulf and its
possible impacts over the region. Confidence is still low on the
development and track if something does develop however despite any
development confidence remains high that heavy rain will impact the
north central Gulf. Medium range models, ensemble means, and the NBM
are all in general agreement and with that have stay rather close to
the NBM once again.

Thursday appears to be the day where the pattern will finally begin
to change. Much of the week will be dominated by ridge in the west
L/W trough in the east and we will be right in the middle of both
but by Thursday and into Friday the L/W trough will start to slide
east while the ridge will begin to build into the Lower MS Valley
and possibly the southeastern CONUS. This would likely make what
ever develops in the southeastern CONUS slow to move north. By
Friday night and especially Saturday the eastern portions of the
ridge could begin to erode and could erode a little faster if the
system in the Gulf actually develops a little faster. That would
allow the system to lift across the region this weekend and possibly
out of here Monday. Currently I would actually lean to slower
solution but that would also lead to a greater risk of heavy rain
and that is about the only thing right now that looks to be a good
bet. However, location of the heavy rain is futile right now. Main
reason is this system would likely be a very messy poorly organized
system and with that expected the bulk of the heavy rain will be far
removed from the center of the storm. Key for everyone is just
continue to stay aware and pay attention to the forecast later this
week.

/CAB/
&&

.AVIATION...
Not anticipating any significant impacts for the next 36 hours.
Convection is not expected to be anywhere like it was yesterday and
only real issue could be some shallow ground fog at ASD, HDC, and
MCB due to the rain late yesterday. Vsbys would likely remain abv
3sm so not anticipating anything worse than MVFR put can not
completely rule that out due to the rain.

/CAB/
&&

.MARINE...
The surface pressure field will break down through the first half of
this week. This will cause winds and seas to relax and lead to winds
less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. The remainder of the
forecast period will be determined by the strength and track of a
potential low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. At this time, looks
like the pressure field will not be influenced by this potential
system until the upcoming weekend or later.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  95  72 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  95  76  95  74 /  40  20  40  10
ASD  96  76  96  74 /  20  20  30  10
MSY  98  80  98  80 /  30  10  40  10
GPT  94  77  93  76 /  20  20  20  10
PQL  94  75  93  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>050-056>061-063>065-071-072-075>078.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...None.
&&