Gale Watch 2, NWS New Orleans, LA

697 
WHUS74 KLIX 270256
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
956 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

GMZ550-552-570-572-271100-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0041.211027T1500Z-211028T0600Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.GL.A.0002.211028T0600Z-211029T2100Z/
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
956 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO
1 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...


* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 kt 
  with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft expected. For the 
  Gale Watch, west winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and 
  seas 10 to 15 ft possible.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower 
  Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm, Coastal waters from the 
  Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon 
  Louisiana out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Port Fourchon 
  Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM and 
  Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to 
  Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 
  AM CDT Thursday. For the Gale Watch, from late Wednesday night 
  through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

GMZ536-538-555-557-575-577-271100-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0041.211027T2100Z-211028T1200Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.GL.A.0002.211028T1200Z-211029T2100Z/
Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-
956 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO
7 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...


* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 20 to 30 
  kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft expected. For the 
  Gale Watch, west winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and 
  seas 10 to 15 ft possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 
  AM CDT Thursday. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday morning 
  through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

GMZ530-532-534-271100-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0041.211027T2100Z-211029T2100Z/
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-
956 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO
4 PM CDT FRIDAY...


* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt expected.

* WHERE...Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, Mississippi 
  Sound and Lake Borgne.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

766 
WHUS74 KLIX 270933
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
433 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

GMZ550-552-570-572-271745-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0041.211027T1500Z-211028T0600Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.GL.A.0002.211028T0600Z-211029T2100Z/
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
433 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 20 to 25 kt 
  with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft expected. For the Gale
  Watch, west winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 
  10 to 15 ft possible.

* WHERE...Open Coastal Waters from Southwest Pass of the
  Mississippi River to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out to 60 nm. 
 
* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM this morning to
  1 AM CDT Thursday. For the Gale Watch, from 1 AM CDT Thursday 
  through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

GMZ536-538-555-557-575-577-271745-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0041.211027T2100Z-211028T1200Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.GL.A.0002.211028T1200Z-211029T2100Z/
Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-
433 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 20 to 30 
  kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft expected. For the 
  Gale Watch, west winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and 
  seas 10 to 15 ft possible.

* WHERE...Open Coastal Waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to
  Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 60 nm, as well as
  Chandeleur and Breton Sounds.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 4 PM this afternoon 
  to 7 AM CDT Thursday. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday morning 
  through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

GMZ530-532-534-271745-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0041.211027T2100Z-211029T2100Z/
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-
433 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt expected.

* WHERE...Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, Mississippi 
  Sound and Lake Borgne.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

066 
WHUS74 KLIX 280445
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

GMZ550-552-570-572-281245-
/O.CAN.KLIX.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-211028T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KLIX.GL.A.0002.211028T0600Z-211029T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.SC.Y.0042.211029T1800Z-211030T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.GL.W.0007.211028T1200Z-211029T1800Z/
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts 
  up to 40 kt and seas 10 to 15 ft expected. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30 kt and seas 8 to 13 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower 
  Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm, Coastal waters from the 
  Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon 
  Louisiana out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Port Fourchon 
  Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM and 
  Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to 
  Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT 
  Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM 
  CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ536-538-555-557-575-577-281245-
/O.CAN.KLIX.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-211028T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KLIX.GL.A.0002.211028T1200Z-211029T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.SC.Y.0042.211029T1800Z-211030T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.GL.W.0007.211028T1200Z-211029T1800Z/
Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-
1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 25 to 35 kt and seas 
  11 to 16 ft expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest 
  winds 20 to 30 kt and seas 8 to 13 ft expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico. 

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT 
  Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM 
  CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ532-281245-
/O.UPG.KLIX.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-211029T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.GL.W.0007.211028T1200Z-211029T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.SC.Y.0042.211029T1800Z-211030T1200Z/
Mississippi Sound-
1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts
  up to 30 kt expected. For the Small Craft Advisory,
* WHERE...Mississippi Sound.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT 
  Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM 
  CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ530-534-281245-
/O.EXT.KLIX.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-211029T1200Z/
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Lake Borgne-
1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt expected.

* WHERE...Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, Mississippi 
  Sound and Lake Borgne.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.AVIATION... (18Z TAF Discussion)

Conditions begin at VFR and remain that way for the bulk of the
forecast. As the front approaches Wednesday afternoon cloud cover
increases and cloud heights decrease. -KO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021/

..MORNING UPDATE...

Performed a gridded update this morning to reflect short-range
guidance and observations. No major modifications required, as we
reside in a post-frontal and drier tropospheric environment.
Watching GOES-16 Ch.2 VIS trends with increasing upper-level
moisture/cirrus advecting in from the west in association with
what is left of Tropical Storm Rick in the EPAC. Otherwise, did
made an adjustment to forecast dewpoints this afternoon to account
for more mixing processes in the PBL, dropping several degrees
below blended guidance. A nice day overall before conditions
drastically change going into Wednesday, where the threat of
strong to severe storms remains possible. Will spend much, much
more time focusing on this time frame with the afternoon update so
stay tuned. KLG

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021/

SYNOPSIS...

Strong upper troughs in the northern stream to our east and west.
The eastern one extended from Lake Michigan to the Carolinas, with
the western one moving into the Great Basin. There was a southern
stream wave (remnants of EPac Rick) moving through northern Mexico
toward south Texas.

At the surface, a backdoor cold front was sinking southwestward,
and had passed southwest of Baton Rouge and New Orleans since
midnight. Areas that were seeing patchy fog earlier in the evening
have seen visibilities improve, although a few areas near the
lower southeast Louisiana coast could still see some patches of
fog over the next few hours until the front arrives in those
areas.

At 3 AM CDT...little in the way of cloud cover was noted. Areas
behind the cold front were seeing temperatures in the 60s, while
areas receiving wind flow off of the warmer waters, were seeing
temperatures in the lower and middle 70s. Dew points ranged from
the upper 50s north to lower 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM (through Thursday night)...

Continue to see a severe weather/heavy rain threat Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night with much cooler weather to follow.

Backdoor front will gradually slip off the coast today, and should
produce a fairly nice day. Temperatures at 925 and 850 mb are
expected to drop by a couple degrees Celsius today, which would
argue for highs in the 80-85 range instead of the upper 80s in
most areas yesterday.

Western upper trough is expected to exit the Rockies tonight. Most
model guidance now shows the energy from ex-Rick getting absorbed
by the main trough instead of being 2 separate entities. As the
trough moves into the Plains states, the current backdoor front
will begin moving north tonight and should be north of the area by
midday Wednesday. Precipitable water values will jump from around
1 inch around midnight tonight, to 2 inches or more by midday
Wednesday as 850/925 winds increase to 35-40 knots or greater by
midday Wednesday.

Upper trough takes on a negative tilt by late in the day over
eastern Oklahoma. Instability values aren't extreme due to the
very moist airmass, but with dew points near 70, that could still
produce CAPE values in the 800-1500 range (GFS more unstable than
NAM) and best prestorm lapse rates around 6.5C/km. Storm Relative
Helicity values in the 0-3km layer will certainly be sufficient
for rotating storms. To pick a point, at Baton Rouge, values
exceed 500 with the NAM solution and around 350 on the GFS. First
question is how much, if any, convection develops over the Gulf
of Mexico ahead of the trough to disrupt the best inflow. Convective
allowing models are somewhat split on whether this occurs. If it
occurs, it may restrict any significant development over land
until the main convection arrives. Currently, there's about a 3-6
hour spread between model solutions regarding the arrival time of
the main line of convection (which races out ahead of the actual
front), with the GFS being on the fast side and the NAM on the
slow side. Main threats would be straight line wind damage with
brief spin up tornadoes on bowing segments. Hail threat is
considerably less as 500 mb temperatures are still rather warm,
and wet bulb zero values generally exceed 13,000 feet until after
main convection passes. Heavy rain will also be somewhat of a
threat, with widespread 1-2 inch totals expected, which could fall
in a pretty short period of time. Best estimate on arrival time
of the convective line, based on 06z HRRR run would be approaching
Baton Rouge around 3-4 pm Wednesday, New Orleans/Slidell around
6-7 pm, clearing our land areas to the east by 10 pm. Continue to
monitor later forecasts in case the timing shifts one way or the
other.

The line of storms will be about 3-6 hours ahead of the actual
frontal passage, with the front not clearing our area until after
midnight Wednesday night. Any heavy precipitation should cut off
at that time, and some clearing is likely prior to sunrise
Thursday. At that point, the system will be occluding over
Arkansas. Some question whether cold advection cloud cover will
reach far enough south to make it into our area on Thursday.
Looking at low level temperatures, we see about a 7C drop in 925
mb temperatures from midday Wednesday to midday Thursday and
closer to 10C at 850. If we get sun on Thursday, that'd argue for
temperatures in the lower/mid 70s at best. If clouds hang in like
the NAM tends to indicate, temps may not get out of the low/mid
60s.

Another concern behind the system once the cold air arrives will
be the potential need for a Wind Advisory on Thursday, mainly
south of Lake Pontchartrain in the New Orleans Metro area and
points south. 35

LONG TERM (Friday and beyond)...

In the start of the extended term we will see the upper level low
pressure system continue to push eastward out of the region. With
this comes continuing breezy winds due to the tight pressure
gradient. We will also see cold air advection continue through
Friday, bringing temperatures down even more. High temps trend in
the mid 60s Friday before warming back into the low to mid 70s into
the weekend. Low temps fall into the 40s even at times for more
northern parts of our CWA while closer to the coast they sit in the
low to mid 50s. Winds will gradually start to subside into Saturday
and calming even more into Sunday. With the amount of dry air
hanging around our area PoPs are nearly non-existent through the
entire extended period.
-HL

MARINE...

Bottom line up front...hazardous conditions expected to develop
over the coastal waters Wednesday, likely continuing through much
of the day Saturday, especially over the open waters.

Winds expected to remain in the 10 to 15 knot range across the
open waters today and tonight. Toward sunrise Wednesday, winds
will become southeast with speeds slowly increasing as the
pressure gradient tightens. Western waters could be approaching
Small Craft Exercise Caution criteria (15-20 knots) around sunrise
Wednesday. Forecast only goes downhill from there. Convective
threat increases during the morning hours in the western waters
and will continue until the passage of a squall line later in the
day or early evening. Outside of the convection, Small Craft
Advisory criteria likely to be met around midday Wednesday over
the western waters, and probably over all the waters by sunset.
Gale force winds, at least in gusts, are expected prior to sunrise
Thursday over most waters, and could continue through much of
Friday over the open waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be
issued later today or tonight beginning during the daylight hours
Wednesday, and would expect Gale Watches to be issued at some
point in the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  79  57  68 /   0  90  70  20
BTR  64  80  57  71 /  10 100  50  10
ASD  59  83  59  74 /   0  90  90  20
MSY  69  83  63  73 /  10  90  80  10
GPT  59  80  62  74 /   0  80  90  20
PQL  56  81  61  73 /   0  70 100  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&