Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS New Orleans, LA

731 
WGUS64 KLIX 041949
FFALIX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
249 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021


LAZ034>037-039-046>050-071-072-075-076-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-
050600-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-
Northern Tangipahoa-Southern Tangipahoa-Northwest St. Tammany-
Southeast St. Tammany-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of New Roads, Lettsworth, Livonia, Spillman,
St. Francisville, Wakefield, Jackson, Clinton, Felps, Darlington,
Easleyville, Greensburg, Montpelier, Bogalusa, Enon, Franklinton,
Bayou Sorrel, Plaquemine, White Castle, Port Allen, Addis, 
Brusly, Baton Rouge, Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Prairieville, 
Denham Springs, Watson, Walker, Amite, Kentwood, Roseland, 
Wilmer, Hammond, Robert, Ponchatoula, Mandeville, Covington, 
Lacombe, Slidell, Centreville, Dolorosa, Fort Adams, Woodville, 
Gillsberg, Gloster, Smithdale, Liberty, McComb, Dexter, Salem, 
Tylertown, Crossroads, McNeil, Poplarville, Picayune, 
Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Diamondhead, Gulfport, Pascagoula, 
Ocean Springs, Moss Point, Gautier, and St. Martin
249 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the 
  following areas, in southeast Louisiana, Ascension, East Baton 
  Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Northern 
  Tangipahoa, Northwest St. Tammany, Pointe Coupee, Southeast 
  St. Tammany, Southern Tangipahoa, St. Helena, Washington, West 
  Baton Rouge, and West Feliciana. In Mississippi, Amite, 
  Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Pearl River, Pike, Walthall, and 
  Wilkinson. 

* until 1 AM CDT Wednesday

* Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts 
  are forecast through this evening. 

* High rainfall rates could overwhelm drainage capacity. Ponding 
  of water in low lying and poor drainage areas can be expected, 
  with flash flooding possible where the heaviest rain falls. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Be sure to have multiple ways to receive flash flood warnings
should they become necessary for your area. And remember, never
drive through flooded roadways as the water may be too deep for
safe passage.

&&

$$

434 
WGUS64 KLIX 050138
FFALIX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
838 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

LAZ034>036-MSZ068>070-050245-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T0600Z/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-
Including the cities of Gillsberg, Dolorosa, Jackson, McComb, 
Spillman, St. Francisville, Smithdale, Wakefield, Liberty, Gloster, 
Fort Adams, New Roads, Livonia, Felps, Clinton, Woodville, 
Lettsworth, and Centreville
838 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and 
southern Mississippi, including the following areas, in southeast 
Louisiana, East Feliciana, Pointe Coupee and West Feliciana. In 
southern Mississippi, Amite, Pike and Wilkinson has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled.

$$

LAZ037-039-046>050-071-072-075-076-MSZ071-077-080>082-050600-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Helena-Washington-Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-
Ascension-Livingston-Northern Tangipahoa-Southern Tangipahoa-
Northwest St. Tammany-Southeast St. Tammany-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of Donaldsonville, Hammond, Gonzales, Robert, 
Bogalusa, Dexter, Denham Springs, Lacombe, Covington, Port Allen, 
Poplarville, Tylertown, Pascagoula, Plaquemine, Diamondhead, Brusly, 
Bayou Sorrel, Roseland, Baton Rouge, Kentwood, Watson, Franklinton, 
Addis, Ponchatoula, Gulfport, Moss Point, Greensburg, Amite, Enon, 
Crossroads, Slidell, Picayune, Easleyville, Gautier, Walker, Ocean 
Springs, White Castle, Bay St. Louis, Mandeville, McNeil, 
Prairieville, Montpelier, Waveland, Salem, Darlington, St. Martin, 
and Wilmer
838 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the 
  following areas, in southeast Louisiana, Ascension, East Baton 
  Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, Northern Tangipahoa, Northwest St. 
  Tammany, Southeast St. Tammany, Southern Tangipahoa, St. Helena, 
  Washington and West Baton Rouge. In Mississippi, Hancock, 
  Harrison, Jackson, Pearl River and Walthall.

* Until 1 AM CDT Wednesday

* Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts are 
  possible through late tonight. 

* High rainfall rates could overwhelm drainage capacity. Ponding of 
  water in low lying and poor drainage areas can be expected, with 
  flash flooding possible where the heaviest rain falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Be sure to have multiple ways to receive flash flood warnings should 
they become necessary for your area. And remember, never drive 
through flooded roadways as the water may be too deep for safe 
passage.

&&

$$

TD

049 
WGUS64 KLIX 050307
FFALIX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1007 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

LAZ037-047-048-MSZ071-050415-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Helena-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Walthall-
Including the cities of Dexter, Brusly, Baton Rouge, Greensburg, 
Montpelier, Port Allen, Easleyville, Salem, Darlington, Tylertown, 
and Addis
1007 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and 
southern Mississippi, including the following areas, in southeast 
Louisiana, East Baton Rouge, St. Helena and West Baton Rouge. In 
southern Mississippi, Walthall has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled.

$$

LAZ056>058-060-061-063-064-077-078-051115-
/O.EXB.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Assumption-St. James-St. John The Baptist-St. Charles-Upper
Jefferson-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Western Orleans-
Eastern Orleans-
Including the cities of Belle Chasse, Kenner, Lutcher, Destrehan, 
Convent, East New Orleans, Gramercy, Metairie, Chalmette, Pierre 
Part, New Orleans, Norco, Violet, Paincourtville, Labadieville, 
Laplace, and Reserve
1007 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast Louisiana, 
  including the following areas, Assumption, Eastern Orleans, St. 
  Charles, St. James, St. John The Baptist, Upper Jefferson, Upper 
  Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard and Western Orleans.

* Until 7 AM CDT Wednesday

* Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts are 
  expected through late tonight. 

* High rainfall rates could overwhelm drainage capacity. Ponding of 
  water in low lying and poor drainage areas can be expected, with 
  flash flooding possible where the heaviest rain falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Be sure to have multiple ways to receive flash flood warnings should 
they become necessary for your area. And remember, never drive 
through flooded roadways as the water may be too deep for safe 
passage.

&&

$$

LAZ039-046-049-050-071-072-075-076-MSZ077-080>082-051115-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington-Iberville-Ascension-Livingston-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Northwest St. Tammany-Southeast St. Tammany-
Pearl River-Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of Donaldsonville, Gulfport, Gonzales, Robert, 
Bogalusa, Lacombe, Covington, Poplarville, Plaquemine, Diamondhead, 
White Castle, Roseland, Hammond, Kentwood, Watson, Amite, Picayune, 
Ponchatoula, Pascagoula, Moss Point, Franklinton, Enon, Crossroads, 
Slidell, Waveland, St. Martin, Gautier, Walker, Ocean Springs, Bayou 
Sorrel, Bay St. Louis, Mandeville, McNeil, Prairieville, Denham 
Springs, and Wilmer
1007 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the 
  following areas, in southeast Louisiana, Ascension, Iberville, 
  Livingston, Northern Tangipahoa, Northwest St. Tammany, Southeast 
  St. Tammany, Southern Tangipahoa and Washington. In Mississippi, 
  Hancock, Harrison, Jackson and Pearl River.

* Until 7 AM CDT Wednesday

* Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts are 
  expected through late tonight. 

* High rainfall rates could overwhelm drainage capacity. Ponding of 
  water in low lying and poor drainage areas can be expected, with 
  flash flooding possible where the heaviest rain falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Be sure to have multiple ways to receive flash flood warnings should 
they become necessary for your area. And remember, never drive 
through flooded roadways as the water may be too deep for safe 
passage.

&&

$$

TD

848 
WGUS64 KLIX 050853
FFALIX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
353 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

LAZ039-071-051000-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington-Northern Tangipahoa-
Including the cities of Roseland, Franklinton, Bogalusa, Kentwood, 
Enon, Amite, and Wilmer
353 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Louisiana, 
including the following areas, Northern Tangipahoa and Washington 
has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. The threat of heavy rain has 
diminished over these areas.

$$

LAZ059-065-051700-
/O.EXB.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Upper Lafourche-Upper Terrebonne-
Including the cities of Bayou Cane, Larose, Houma, Raceland, and 
Thibodaux
353 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast Louisiana, 
  including the following areas, Upper Lafourche and Upper 
  Terrebonne.

* Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon

* Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts are 
  possible through midday today.

* High rainfall rates could overwhelm drainage capacity. Ponding of 
  water in low lying and poor drainage areas can be expected, with 
  flash flooding possible where the heaviest rain falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Be sure to have multiple ways to receive flash flood warnings should 
they become necessary for your area. And remember, never drive 
through flooded roadways as the water may be too deep for safe 
passage.

&&

$$

LAZ046-049-050-056>058-060-061-063-064-072-075>078-MSZ077-080>082-
051700-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Iberville-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-St. James-St. John The
Baptist-St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St.
Bernard-Southern Tangipahoa-Northwest St. Tammany-Southeast St.
Tammany-Western Orleans-Eastern Orleans-Pearl River-Hancock-Harrison-
Jackson-
Including the cities of Donaldsonville, Gulfport, Lutcher, Convent, 
Gonzales, Robert, Chalmette, Covington, Poplarville, Plaquemine, 
Belle Chasse, Bayou Sorrel, East New Orleans, Gramercy, Hammond, 
Metairie, Pierre Part, Watson, Ocean Springs, Picayune, 
Paincourtville, Reserve, White Castle, Kenner, Pascagoula, Moss 
Point, Diamondhead, Ponchatoula, Gautier, Crossroads, Slidell, 
Waveland, St. Martin, Norco, Walker, Labadieville, Laplace, 
Destrehan, Bay St. Louis, Lacombe, Mandeville, McNeil, Prairieville, 
Denham Springs, New Orleans, and Violet
353 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the 
  following areas, in southeast Louisiana, Ascension, Assumption, 
  Eastern Orleans, Iberville, Livingston, Northwest St. Tammany, 
  Southeast St. Tammany, Southern Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. 
  James, St. John The Baptist, Upper Jefferson, Upper Plaquemines, 
  Upper St. Bernard and Western Orleans. In Mississippi, Hancock, 
  Harrison, Jackson and Pearl River.

* Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon

* Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher 
  amounts are possible through midday today.

* High rainfall rates could overwhelm drainage capacity. Ponding of 
  water in low lying and poor drainage areas can be expected, with 
  flash flooding possible where the heaviest rain falls.

$$

579 
WGUS64 KLIX 051450
FFALIX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
950 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

LAZ046-049-050-056>061-063>065-072-075>078-MSZ077-080>082-051800-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Iberville-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-St. James-St. John The
Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-Upper
Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Upper Terrebonne-Southern Tangipahoa-
Northwest St. Tammany-Southeast St. Tammany-Western Orleans-Eastern
Orleans-Pearl River-Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of Donaldsonville, Gulfport, Lutcher, Convent, 
Gonzales, Robert, Chalmette, Larose, Destrehan, Plaquemine, Belle 
Chasse, Bayou Sorrel, East New Orleans, Gramercy, Bayou Cane, 
Hammond, Metairie, Pierre Part, Watson, Houma, Ocean Springs, 
Picayune, Paincourtville, Reserve, White Castle, Kenner, Pascagoula, 
Moss Point, Diamondhead, Ponchatoula, Raceland, Gautier, Crossroads, 
Slidell, Waveland, St. Martin, Norco, Walker, Labadieville, Laplace, 
Thibodaux, Bay St. Louis, Lacombe, Mandeville, McNeil, Prairieville, 
Denham Springs, Covington, New Orleans, Violet, and Poplarville
950 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the 
  following areas, in southeast Louisiana, Ascension, Assumption, 
  Eastern Orleans, Iberville, Livingston, Northwest St. Tammany, 
  Southeast St. Tammany, Southern Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. 
  James, St. John The Baptist, Upper Jefferson, Upper Lafourche, 
  Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard, Upper Terrebonne and Western 
  Orleans. In Mississippi, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson and Pearl 
  River.

* Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon

* Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher 
  amounts are possible through midday today.

* High rainfall rates could overwhelm drainage capacity. Ponding of 
  water in low lying and poor drainage areas can be expected, with 
  flash flooding possible where the heaviest rain falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Be sure to have multiple ways to receive flash flood warnings should 
they become necessary for your area. And remember, never drive 
through flooded roadways as the water may be too deep for safe 
passage.

&&

$$

PG

451 
WGUS64 KLIX 051805
FFALIX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
105 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

LAZ046-049-050-056>061-063>065-072-075>078-MSZ077-080>082-051915-
/O.EXP.KLIX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210505T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Iberville-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-St. James-St. John The
Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-Upper
Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Upper Terrebonne-Southern Tangipahoa-
Northwest St. Tammany-Southeast St. Tammany-Western Orleans-Eastern
Orleans-Pearl River-Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of Donaldsonville, Gulfport, Lutcher, Convent, 
Gonzales, Robert, Chalmette, Larose, Destrehan, Plaquemine, Belle 
Chasse, Bayou Sorrel, East New Orleans, Gramercy, Bayou Cane, 
Hammond, Metairie, Pierre Part, Watson, Houma, Ocean Springs, 
Picayune, Paincourtville, Reserve, White Castle, Kenner, Pascagoula, 
Moss Point, Diamondhead, Ponchatoula, Raceland, Gautier, Crossroads, 
Slidell, Waveland, St. Martin, Norco, Walker, Labadieville, Laplace, 
Thibodaux, Bay St. Louis, Lacombe, Mandeville, McNeil, Prairieville, 
Denham Springs, Covington, New Orleans, Violet, and Poplarville
105 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and 
Mississippi, including the following areas, in southeast Louisiana, 
Ascension, Assumption, Eastern Orleans, Iberville, Livingston, 
Northwest St. Tammany, Southeast St. Tammany, Southern Tangipahoa, 
St. Charles, St. James, St. John The Baptist, Upper Jefferson, Upper 
Lafourche, Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard, Upper Terrebonne 
and Western Orleans. In Mississippi, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson and 
Pearl River has expired.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

PG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1203 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated for 06z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly MVFR is expected to prevail overnight into early morning
due to lower CIGS. SHRA/TSRA will become isolated to scattered at
some point during mid to late morning/midday hours on Tuesday,
then it is anticipated a squall line of strong to severe TSRA will
move into the area from KMCB-KBTR possibly as early as the 19-21z
period, KHDC 20-22z, KASD-KMSY 22-24z, and KGPT/KHUM 23-01z
Tuesday evening. Will continue to fine tune the timing and degree
of lower conditions and strength of convective wind gusts with
future TAF issuances. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 813 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021/

EVENING UPDATE...

Very isolated showers were all that remained on radar shortly
after 8 pm with a decreasing trend noted over the last couple
hours. Some occasional convective cloud development with isolated
showers and some thunderstorms are expected overnight, however
most of the thunderstorms through shortly after midnight should be
over the eastern coastal waters if they occur. Towards late
night/early morning to after daybreak, the chance of
thunderstorms will ramp up through the day on Tuesday, however the
timing remains uncertain. The last several runs of the HRRR
indicate most of the threat of stronger/severe thunderstorms
occurring in the afternoon to early evening from northwest to
southeast which was indicated in the late afternoon forecast.
Made some minor adjustments to the hourly and 12 hourly rain
chances through Tuesday, but otherwise the forecast, including the
severe weather risks, was mostly on track at this time. 22/TD

AVIATION...

Conditions varying from VFR to MVFR at the beginning of the 00z
TAF period are expected to lower to more consistent MVFR with some
IFR possible later tonight/early Tuesday morning mainly due to low
CIGS. The chances of isolated/brief light SHRA will diminish
early this evening at most TAF airports, then ramp up by late
morning and especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday.
Confidence of timing of the TSRA with much lower conditions and
possibly strong convective gusts is low at this time, but will be
fine tuned better with the 06z and later TAF issuances. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Wednesday...
Tonight, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern.
Southerly winds will help to enhance the warm air advection and
moisture advection into the region. As a result of the
instability, some scattered showers and storms will be possible
through the late evening hours tonight. These storms could have
frequent lightning and gusty winds.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave upper level system is expected
to move through the area. Southerly surface winds will enhance the
warm air advection and moisture advection into the area ahead of
the system, which will enhance the instability in the environment.
The directional shear based on the CAMs for Tuesday afternoon and
evening is not very favorable. Most places struggle to see
helicities >150 in the 0-3km. However, brief spin up tornadoes
would be possible with these parameters and cannot be ruled out.
Overall dynamic forcing seems sufficient as well with speed shear
values favorable for severe storms, mainly as the line moves
through tomorrow afternoon and evening. CAPE values will be over
2000 J/kg, so not worries about the instability in the
environment. As a whole, the instability and lifting in the
environment will be favorable for severe weather, but the limiting
factor will be both the directional and speed shear. In other
words, this looks like a high cape, low shear environment
tomorrow. We tend to overperform for these types of scenarios, so
regardless we will be monitoring events closely. We are outlooked
under an enhanced risk of severe weather by SPC with the main
threats being gusty winds (>60 mph), large, significant hail (>2
inches), and a few tornadoes. The main location for this threat
would be along and north of the I-10/I-12 corridor in southeast
Louisiana and southern and coastal Mississippi. Right now, looking
at the models, it seems more likely that we will get most of our
severe weather as the line moves through our area tomorrow
afternoon and evening. But some storms could be possible out ahead
of the line if the strength of the shortwave and dynamic forcing
become a bit more noticeable/pronounced than they are currently
forest to be.

A secondary threat that would be more of an issue Tuesday
overnight into Wednesday will be the potential for heavy rainfall.
As the system moves southward across our area, the model
consensus is indicating the possibility for it slowing down and
setting up a boundary tht lingers Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. There is low confidence in this heavy rainfall scenario.
However, if this boundary does set up, there will be favorable
parameters for heavy rainfall in the environment. The location of
this boundary set up is highly uncertain and will depend on how
quickly the system progresses tomorrow during the daytime. Upper
level divergence is noticeable Wednesday, so any lingering
rainfall will have the potential to be more efficient. There will
be abundant moisture and deep warm air in the environment thanks
to the southerly winds in place ahead of the system. One limiting
factor for the heavy rainfall threat will be the wind speeds, but
we generally do not need slow winds to get the threat of heavy
rainfall. Overall rainfall rates from the stalled/slowed system on
Wednesday would be enough to cause a concern, especially if the
boundary were to set up along our more vulnerable areas, like the
MS Coast or southshore areas of Lake Pontchartrain. Another
factor into this heavy rainfall threat will be timing. If the
system stalls long enough to persist over land through the daytime
hours, then the storms will likely re- fire along the boundary
wherever it set up. So, these area would be at an even bigger risk
of heavy rainfall concerns, should this scenario play out.

Now all that being said, there is very low confidence, based on
the models, that the system will stall. It is possible that the
system could prove to be rather progressive. In which case, it
would move off the Gulf Coast by Tuesday mid- morning and there
would be a low threat for heavy rainfall. There would still be the
potential for the gusty winds and large hail and spin up tornadoes
though in this scenario as it progressed southward. But the heavy
rainfall threat and timing will depend heavily on how the system
develops Tuesday.

So, in summary, there is the potential for severe weather Tuesday
and Tuesday evening, with the main threats being damaging winds,
large hail, and a few tornadoes. There is also the threat for
heavy rainfall, mainly Tuesday overnight into Wednesday,
especially if the system stalls as it moves southward. MSW

LONG TERM...
Thursday through Sunday...
Thursday and Friday, upper level ridging will build over the area.
Northerly surface winds will help to enhance cooler and drier air
into the region. Upper level convergence will also help to enhance
the sinking air in the environment. Overall, rainfall chances
will be low Thursday and Friday.

Saturday and Sunday, zonal flow will dominate the upper level
pattern again. Southerly surface winds will return, which will
help to enhance the warm air advection and moisture advection into
the area. Weak upper level divergence will also be in place. As a
result, showers and storms will be possible Saturday and Sunday,
mainly during peak daytime heating hours. These storms would be
light to moderate and the main threats would be frequent lightning
and gusty winds. MSW

AVIATION...
18Z TAF Forecast...
MVFR conditions due to low ceilings prevail at most area airports
and will persist through the late evening hours tonight. IFR
conditions will be possible at most area airports due to very low
ceilings overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning. By mid-
morning Tuesday, conditions should be returning to MVFR
conditions. These MVFR conditions will persist due to lingering
low ceilings through the rest of the forecast period. MSW

MARINE...
Tonight through Tuesday, winds will be strong (15-20 knots) and
southerly. Wednesday winds will be southerly shifting northerly
and moderate (<15 knots). Thursday, winds will be northerly and
moderate (<15 knots). Friday, winds will be northerly shifting
southeasterly and moderate (<15 knots). Saturday, winds will be
strong (<15 knots) and southerly. Sunday and Monday, winds will
be moderate (<15 knots) and southerly. Wave heights will
correspond to the wind speeds. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  85  62  78 /  30 100  50  20
BTR  75  87  64  79 /  20 100  50  30
ASD  75  88  68  82 /  20  70 100  60
MSY  77  89  71  81 /  20  70  80  60
GPT  75  84  70  81 /  20  60 100  60
PQL  73  84  69  80 /  20  60  90  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&