Alert archive / Louisiana / Winter Weather Advisories in 2021
Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Lake Charles, LA
NWS Lake Charles, LA issued this winter weather advisory at Feb 17, 2021, 4:00 AM CST for 5 parishes in Louisiana; 4 counties in Texas. It took effect at Feb 17, 2021, 5:00 AM CST. It was in force for 30 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 17, 2021, 4:00 AM CST (10:00 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 17, 2021, 5:00 AM CST
- Expired
- Feb 18, 2021, 10:48 AM CST
- In force
- 30 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Lake Charles, LA
Counties Allen Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Hardin County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Newton County, TX, Tyler County, TX
The radar
The Ft Polk radar (KPOE), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 00:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1598 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 75 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -34 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 86 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
501 WWUS44 KLCH 171000 WSWLCH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 400 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...Freezing Rain Spreading Into Parts of Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana... Another round of wintry precipitation is beginning this morning, as areas of rain spread across the Texas Lakes region into Central Louisiana. The areas of rain are expected to expand in coverage and intensity through the morning, gradually ending from west to east through the afternoon and into this evening. Temperatures are currently expected to climb above freezing for a short time period this afternoon, but are expected to fall below freezing again tonight. Ice accumulations of between 0.10 and 0.30 inch are expected in the warning area, with amounts of up to 0.10 inch in the advisory area. Additional light freezing rain is possible late tonight into Thursday morning in the warning area, though only light additional accumulations are expected. LAZ027>030-TXZ180-201-259>262-171800- /O.CON.KLCH.WS.W.0003.210217T1100Z-210218T1800Z/ Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Tyler-Hardin-Northern Jasper- Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton- Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle, Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport, Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta, Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, Buna, Evadale, and Deweyville 400 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one tenth to one third of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Louisiana and southeast Texas. * WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. In Louisiana, call 511 for road information. In Texas, visit www.drivetexas.org for road information. && $$ LAZ031>033-171800- /O.NEW.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.210217T1500Z-210218T0600Z/ Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry- Including the cities of Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou, Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, and Eunice 400 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Allen, Evangeline and St. Landry Counties. * WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. Call 511 for road information. && $$ 13
5 follow-up statements
385 WWUS44 KLCH 171056 WSWLCH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 456 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...Freezing Rain Spreading Into Parts of Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana... Another round of wintry precipitation is beginning this morning, as areas of rain spread across the Texas Lakes region into Central Louisiana. The areas of rain are expected to expand in coverage and intensity through the morning, gradually ending from west to east through the afternoon and into this evening. Temperatures are currently expected to climb above freezing for a short time period this afternoon, but are expected to fall below freezing again tonight. Ice accumulations of between 0.10 and 0.30 inch are expected in the warning area, with amounts of up to 0.10 inch in the advisory area. Additional light freezing rain is possible late tonight into Thursday morning in the warning area, though only light additional accumulations are expected. LAZ027>030-TXZ180-201-259>262-171800- /O.CON.KLCH.WS.W.0003.210217T1100Z-210218T1800Z/ Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Tyler-Hardin-Northern Jasper- Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton- Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle, Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport, Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta, Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, Buna, Evadale, and Deweyville 456 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one tenth to one third of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Louisiana and southeast Texas. * WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. In Louisiana, call 511 for road information. In Texas, visit www.drivetexas.org for road information. && $$ LAZ031>033-171800- /O.EXT.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.210217T1100Z-210218T0600Z/ Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry- Including the cities of Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou, Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, and Eunice 456 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Allen, Evangeline and St. Landry Counties. * WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. Call 511 for road information. && $$ 13
709 WWUS44 KLCH 172146 WSWLCH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 346 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...Freezing Rain Spreading Into Parts of Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana... Another round of wintry precipitation is beginning this morning, as areas of rain spread across the Texas Lakes region into Central Louisiana. The areas of rain are expected to expand in coverage and intensity through the morning, gradually ending from west to east through the afternoon and into this evening. Temperatures are currently expected to climb above freezing for a short time period this afternoon, but are expected to fall below freezing again tonight. Ice accumulations of between 0.10 and 0.30 inch are expected in the warning area, with amounts of up to 0.10 inch in the advisory area. Additional light freezing rain is possible late tonight into Thursday morning in the warning area, though only light additional accumulations are expected. LAZ030-TXZ180-201-259>262-180600- /O.CAN.KLCH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ /O.EXB.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ Beauregard-Tyler-Hardin-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton- Southern Jasper-Southern Newton- Including the cities of Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta, Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, Buna, Evadale, and Deweyville 346 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. * WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. In Louisiana, call 511 for road information. In Texas, visit www.drivetexas.org for road information. && $$ LAZ027>029-180600- /O.CON.KLCH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles- Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle, Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport, Simmesport, and Mansura 346 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Brief periods of moderate icing expected. Total ice accumulations less than one tenth with isolated one quarter of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Louisiana and southeast Texas. * WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. Call 511 for road information. && $$ LAZ031>033-180600- /O.EXT.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry- Including the cities of Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou, Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, and Eunice 346 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Allen, Evangeline and St. Landry Counties. * WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Call 511 for road information. && $$
714 WWUS44 KLCH 180330 WSWLCH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 930 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...BULK OF WINTRY MIX COMING TO AN END, BUT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING... Widespread wintry precipitation has moved east of the area, but some light freezing drizzle still noted in some locations. Temperatures are generally expected to remain below freezing, so any icing which has occurred is expected to remain. By Thursday morning, an additional band of a light mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible. Some minor additional accumulations will be possible with this. LAZ027>029-181100- /O.CON.KLCH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles- Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle, Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport, Simmesport, and Mansura 930 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing will remain. Wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible Thursday morning. Light accumulations of additional frozen precipitation possible. * WHERE...Portions of Central Louisiana. * WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. Call 511 for road information. && $$ LAZ030>033-TXZ180-201-259>262-181100- /O.CON.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-Tyler-Hardin- Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton- Including the cities of Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta, Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou, Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, Buna, Evadale, and Deweyville 930 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible Thursday morning. Light accumulations of frozen precipitation possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. * WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Louisiana, call 511 for road information. In Texas, visit www.drivetexas.org for road information. && $$
591 WWUS44 KLCH 180949 WSWLCH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 349 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...Light Wintry Weather Expected This Morning... A swath of light freezing drizzle is ongoing early this morning across parts of the Texas Lakes Region into west Central Louisiana, roughly along and north of a Woodville to Leesville line. Light precipitation will continue to be possible in this area through the morning, primarily in the form of a light freezing drizzle, though sleet and/or snow could mix in at times. No significant additional accumulations of wintry weather are expected. LAZ027-181800- /O.CAN.KLCH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ /O.EXA.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ Vernon- Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, and Slagle 349 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Light mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of less than one half of an inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Vernon County. * WHEN...Until noon CST today. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Call 511 for road information. && $$ LAZ028-029-181100- /O.CAN.KLCH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ Rapides-Avoyelles- Including the cities of Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport, Simmesport, and Mansura 349 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... The threat of additional accumulations of wintry weather has ended. However, travel conditions likely remain hazardous in parts of the area due to existing ice, which will linger through much of the morning. Motorists are urged to follow the instructions of local authorities, slow down and use caution while traveling. $$ LAZ030>033-TXZ201-261-262-181100- /O.CAN.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-Hardin-Southern Jasper- Southern Newton- Including the cities of Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta, Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou, Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Lumberton, Silsbee, Gist, Buna, Evadale, and Deweyville 349 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The threat of additional accumulations of wintry weather has ended. However, travel conditions likely remain hazardous in parts of the area due to existing ice, which will linger through much of the morning. Motorists are urged to follow the instructions of local authorities, slow down and use caution while traveling. $$ TXZ180-259-260-181800- /O.CON.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ Tyler-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton- Including the cities of Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, and Call 349 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY... * WHAT...Light mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of less than one half of an inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Northern Newton, Northern Jasper and Tyler Counties. * WHEN...Until noon CST today. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit www.drivetexas.org for road information. && $$ 13
390 WWUS44 KLCH 181648 WSWLCH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED STILL DANGEROUS ROADS... .The chance for additional winter weather accumulation has ended. However, temperatures will struggle to get above freezing today, then fall back into the 20s tonight. Therefore, roadways will still have icy conditions. LAZ027-TXZ180-259-260-181800- /O.CAN.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/ Vernon-Tyler-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton- Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle, Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, and Call 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Although the any additional winter weather precipitation and accumulation is expected, travel will still be hazardous as roads remain icy. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lake Charles, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Feb 16, 11:35 PM CST, 4 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 16, 11:35 PM CST, 4 hours 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1135 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021
.DISCUSSION...
For 02/17/2021 06Z TAF Issuance
&&
.AVIATION...
Beginning to see the first returns in east Texas creeping into
range of the radar, but expect things to remain dry the next few
hours at least. Overall not many changes with this TAF package.
Still expect lowering CIGS to MVFR from west to east through the
overnight with precip chances increasing as a disturbance slides
through. Kept TEMPO groups at BPT/LCH for some FZRA to mix in
towards the onset of precip, but surface temps have remained
fairly warm so far, so might be looking at predominately rain.
Conversely, AEX looks to be dealing with the vast majority of
precip coming in the form of FZRA, with maybe some periods of RA
and IP mixed in. The remaining terminals, LFT/ARA, should stay
warm enough to remain all RA. Some guidance suggests limited
instability could build in along the I-10 corridor and some
thunder may be possible, but not enough confidence to add any VCTS
in this package. Precip comes to an end from west to east, but
lingering low level moisture is expected keep low CIGS over the
terminals. Winds through the period will shift in association with
surface low pressure sliding east along the Gulf coast, becoming a
bit gusty at times at the southern terminals.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 951 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/
UPDATE...Temperatures across the region have mostly plateaued.
The hard freeze warning was cancelled for a portion of the area,
and probably could have been trimmed farther. Lower Acadiana still
has temperatures in the mid to upper 20s with an isolated location
or two possibly still at 25. From interior East Texas through Cen
LA temperatures may fall back into the mid 20s from the upper 20s
to low 30s.
The latest hi-res guidance indicates around 0.25" of ice will be
possible from northern Hardin County, northern Beauregard Parish
and northward. Therefore the WSW was extended south.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/
DISCUSSION...
For 02/17/2021 00Z TAF Issuance
AVIATION...
Area radars remain devoid of precipitation at this hour, though a
stratus deck ~3000-4500 ft can be seen moving eastward across the
TX/LA state line. Expect this to encroach upon the remaining
terminals moving into the evening and overnight, with CIGS
lowering to MVFR. Biggest impact this TAF cycle is in regards to
another disturbance overrunning the antecedent cold surface air
mass, in turn resulting in the development of surface low pressure
in the NW Gulf tomorrow morning/afternoon. Precip chances
increase after midnight and continue to remain elevated until the
disturbance pushes east of the region. Given warm air overrunning
subfreezing surface temps to begin with, some TEMPO FZRA is
expected to mix in at BPT and LCH for a few hours. Some -IP
possible as well. Surface temps along the I-10 corridor warm
more noticeably after sunrise, so a switchover to all RA is
expected for the remainder of the event at LCH/BPT, with RA the
favored precip type throughout at LFT/ARA. AEX remains the most
likely to deal with prolonged FZRA and -IP with temps remaining
below freezing for most of the day. Some rain will mix in as
surface temps finally manage to warm above freezing, and have a
switchover to rain included by late afternoon before precip clears
the region. In regards to winds, winds will become gusty and
shift in relation to the surface low developing and sliding east
in the Gulf.
50
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/
DISCUSSION...
Where skies have remained clear, temperatures have managed to
claw their way just above freezing across most of the area this
afternoon although there are still a few sites reporting sub
freezing temperatures. The clearly evident layer of ice on the
visible satellite has become a bit more opaque this afternoon as
these areas begin to thaw. We are actually somewhat fortunate in
this regard as large parts of Texas have remained enshrouded in
cloud cover this afternoon and are reporting temperatures in the
teens and lower twenties at this hour.
The short term forecast philosophy is largely unchanged although
considerable uncertainty exists. A surface low is forecast to
develop this evening and lift up the Texas gulf coast tonight into
Wednesday initializing widespread showers as it does so. With
overnight lows expected to fall back into the upper teens or
lower twenties across interior parts of southeast Texas and
central Louisiana, another round of winter weather is likely.
Forecast soundings continue to depict a well defined warm nose in
place from 3kft to 10kft making freezing rain the predominant
precip type although some sleet or snow could work its way to the
surface. Confidence is relatively high on this front and the
winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning with this
package.
Less certain are the surface temperatures across central
Louisiana. Most guidance brings temperatures slightly above
freezing during the afternoon, but should this be slightly
overdone, the freezing rain could persist through the afternoon,
into Wednesday night and even through mid morning Thursday. Should
this prove to be the case, the presently forecast ice
accumulations could be underdone.
Regardless of whether temperatures actually make it above
32F, remaining precipitation is expected to convert back to
freezing rain near or shortly after sunset Wednesday evening as
temperatures drop back below freezing.
There is fairly wide discrepancy between guidance as to how much
precipitation will linger into Thursday ahead of a pacific cold
front, but temperatures are progged to warm above freezing
areawide by late Thursday morning which will turn any remaining
precipitation liquid and allow any accumulated ice to begin
melting.
Behind the front, high pressure builds across the region allowing
afternoon highs to warm by about 10 degrees each day Friday
through the weekend although hard freezes will be possible both
Friday and Saturday mornings.
Jones
MARINE...
Light winds this afternoon will increase out of the east tonight
into early Wednesday as surface low moves across the coastal
waters. Strong winds and elevated seas will persist Wednesday and
before turning offshore Thursday as the low moves away and
a frontal boundary pushes through. Winds and seas will subside
Friday as the high slides across the area, with onshore flow
developing on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 29 19 35 29 / 0 30 100 60
LCH 33 29 39 33 / 0 10 90 50
LFT 34 27 45 35 / 0 10 90 70
BPT 35 29 38 32 / 0 20 100 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ027>033.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday
for LAZ027>030.
Hard Freeze Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ043>045-
052>055.
TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ180-259-260.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday
for TXZ180-201-259>262.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
Small Craft Exercise Caution through Thursday afternoon for
GMZ430-432-435.
&&
AVIATION...50Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 16, 3:54 PM CST, 12 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ201-215-216-261-262-172200- Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin- Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron- Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton- 354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A hard freeze is expected overnight tonight with low temperatures dropping into the mid 20s. At these temperatures, damage to exposed pipes could occur. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Hard Freeze Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Widespread showers will develop beginning early Wednesday morning in response to an area of low pressure moving across the northwestern gulf of Mexico. A brief period of freezing rain could occur before sunrise, but no ice accumulation is expected. Showers will continue through late Thursday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LAZ030>033-172200- Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry- 354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana and southwest Louisiana. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A hard freeze is expected overnight tonight with low temperatures dropping into the lower 20s. At these temperatures, damage to exposed pipes could occur. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Hard Freeze Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Widespread showers will develop beginning early Wednesday morning in response to an area of low pressure moving across the northwestern gulf of Mexico. A brief period of freezing rain could occur before sunrise, but no ice accumulation is expected. Showers will continue through late Thursday morning. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Hard Freeze Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LAZ027>029-TXZ180-259-260-172200- Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Tyler-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton- 354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, west central Louisiana and southeast Texas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A hard freeze is expected overnight tonight with low temperatures dropping into the upper teens. At these temperatures, damage to exposed pipes could occur. Freezing rain is expected to begin developing after midnight as an area of low pressure moves across the northwestern gulf of Mexico. Ice accumulations of 0.1 to 0.3 inch is expected. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Hard Freeze Warning. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The freezing rain may transition over to a cold rain by Wednesday afternoon, but if temperatures are slightly lower than forecast, the freezing rain could persist through much of the day and into Thursday morning. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Hard Freeze Warning. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-172200- Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from 20 to 60 NM- 354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Winds will increase as a surface low moves across the northwestern gulf tonight into Wednesday. A small craft advisory has been issued beginning at midnight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Small Craft Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Widespread showers will develop Wednesday in response to an area of low pressure moving across the northwestern gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will remain elevated Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front turning winds offshore Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Small Craft Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. GMZ430-432-435-172200- Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay- 354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Winds will increase as a surface low moves across the northwestern gulf tonight into Wednesday. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Widespread showers will develop Wednesday in response to an area of low pressure moving across the northwestern gulf of Mexico. Winds and waves will remain elevated Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front turning winds offshore Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Lake Charles, LA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 10:25 AM CST | River Flood Warning | LCH | Rapides | 40 days |
Nearby
Winter Weather Advisories in Louisiana, 2021Winter Weather Advisories in Texas, 2021Every winter weather advisory in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.