Alert archive / Louisiana / Winter Weather Advisories in 2021

Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Lake Charles, LA

February 17, 20215 parishes in Louisiana; 4 counties in Texas

NWS Lake Charles, LA issued this winter weather advisory at Feb 17, 2021, 4:00 AM CST for 5 parishes in Louisiana; 4 counties in Texas. It took effect at Feb 17, 2021, 5:00 AM CST. It was in force for 30 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 17, 2021, 4:00 AM CST (10:00 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 17, 2021, 5:00 AM CST
Expired
Feb 18, 2021, 10:48 AM CST
In force
30 hr
Issued by
NWS Lake Charles, LA

Counties Allen Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Hardin County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Newton County, TX, Tyler County, TX

The radar

The Ft Polk radar (KPOE), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 00:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 00:00Z on 2021-02-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 00:00Z on 2021-02-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -34 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1598 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
75 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

501 
WWUS44 KLCH 171000
WSWLCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
400 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...Freezing Rain Spreading Into Parts of Southeast Texas and
Central Louisiana...

Another round of wintry precipitation is beginning this morning,
as areas of rain spread across the Texas Lakes region into Central
Louisiana. The areas of rain are expected to expand in coverage 
and intensity through the morning, gradually ending from west to 
east through the afternoon and into this evening. Temperatures are
currently expected to climb above freezing for a short time 
period this afternoon, but are expected to fall below freezing 
again tonight. Ice accumulations of between 0.10 and 0.30 inch are
expected in the warning area, with amounts of up to 0.10 inch in 
the advisory area. 

Additional light freezing rain is possible late tonight into 
Thursday morning in the warning area, though only light additional
accumulations are expected.

LAZ027>030-TXZ180-201-259>262-171800-
/O.CON.KLCH.WS.W.0003.210217T1100Z-210218T1800Z/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Tyler-Hardin-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle, 
Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport, 
Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta, 
Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville,
Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, 
Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, 
Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, Buna, 
Evadale, and Deweyville
400 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of
  one tenth to one third of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central 
  Louisiana and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the 
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages. 

In Louisiana, call 511 for road information. In Texas, visit
www.drivetexas.org for road information.

&&

$$

LAZ031>033-171800-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.210217T1500Z-210218T0600Z/
Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Including the cities of Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, 
St. Landry, Mamou, Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, and Eunice
400 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up 
  to one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Allen, Evangeline and St. Landry Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages. 

Call 511 for road information.

&&

$$

13
5 follow-up statements
385 
WWUS44 KLCH 171056
WSWLCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
456 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...Freezing Rain Spreading Into Parts of Southeast Texas and
Central Louisiana...

Another round of wintry precipitation is beginning this morning,
as areas of rain spread across the Texas Lakes region into
Central Louisiana. The areas of rain are expected to expand in
coverage and intensity through the morning, gradually ending from
west to east through the afternoon and into this evening.
Temperatures are currently expected to climb above freezing for a
short time period this afternoon, but are expected to fall below
freezing again tonight. Ice accumulations of between 0.10 and
0.30 inch are expected in the warning area, with amounts of up to
0.10 inch in the advisory area.

Additional light freezing rain is possible late tonight into
Thursday morning in the warning area, though only light
additional accumulations are expected.

LAZ027>030-TXZ180-201-259>262-171800-
/O.CON.KLCH.WS.W.0003.210217T1100Z-210218T1800Z/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Tyler-Hardin-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle, 
Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport, 
Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta, 
Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville,
Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, 
Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, 
Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, Buna, 
Evadale, and Deweyville
456 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of 
  one tenth to one third of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central 
  Louisiana and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the 
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages. 

In Louisiana, call 511 for road information. In Texas, visit
www.drivetexas.org for road information.

&&

$$

LAZ031>033-171800-
/O.EXT.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.210217T1100Z-210218T0600Z/
Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Including the cities of Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, 
St. Landry, Mamou, Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, and Eunice
456 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up 
  to one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Allen, Evangeline and St. Landry Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages. 

Call 511 for road information.

&&

$$

13
709 
WWUS44 KLCH 172146
WSWLCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
346 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...Freezing Rain Spreading Into Parts of Southeast Texas and
Central Louisiana...

Another round of wintry precipitation is beginning this morning,
as areas of rain spread across the Texas Lakes region into
Central Louisiana. The areas of rain are expected to expand in
coverage and intensity through the morning, gradually ending from
west to east through the afternoon and into this evening.
Temperatures are currently expected to climb above freezing for a
short time period this afternoon, but are expected to fall below
freezing again tonight. Ice accumulations of between 0.10 and
0.30 inch are expected in the warning area, with amounts of up to
0.10 inch in the advisory area.

Additional light freezing rain is possible late tonight into
Thursday morning in the warning area, though only light
additional accumulations are expected.

LAZ030-TXZ180-201-259>262-180600-
/O.CAN.KLCH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
Beauregard-Tyler-Hardin-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Including the cities of Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta, 
Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville,
Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, 
Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, 
Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, Buna, 
Evadale, and Deweyville
346 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light 
  glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are 
  possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or 
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages. 

In Louisiana, call 511 for road information. In Texas, visit
www.drivetexas.org for road information.

&&

$$

LAZ027>029-180600-
/O.CON.KLCH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-
Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle, 
Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport, 
Simmesport, and Mansura
346 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Brief periods of moderate icing expected. Total ice
  accumulations less than one tenth with isolated one quarter of
  an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central 
  Louisiana and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are 
  possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or 
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages. 

Call 511 for road information.

&&

$$

LAZ031>033-180600-
/O.EXT.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Including the cities of Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, 
St. Landry, Mamou, Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, and Eunice
346 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Allen, Evangeline and St. Landry Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or 
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Call 511 for road information.

&&

$$
714 
WWUS44 KLCH 180330
WSWLCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
930 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...BULK OF WINTRY MIX COMING TO AN END, BUT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING...

Widespread wintry precipitation has moved east of the area, but
some light freezing drizzle still noted in some locations.
Temperatures are generally expected to remain below freezing, so
any icing which has occurred is expected to remain. By Thursday
morning, an additional band of a light mix of freezing rain,
sleet, and snow will be possible. Some minor additional
accumulations will be possible with this.

LAZ027>029-181100-
/O.CON.KLCH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-
Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle, 
Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport, 
Simmesport, and Mansura
930 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing will remain. Wintry mix of freezing
  rain, sleet, and snow possible Thursday morning. Light 
  accumulations of additional frozen precipitation possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Louisiana.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are 
  possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages. 

Call 511 for road information.

&&

$$

LAZ030>033-TXZ180-201-259>262-181100-
/O.CON.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-Tyler-Hardin-
Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Including the cities of Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta, 
Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou, 
Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister,
Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Lumberton, Silsbee, 
Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, 
Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, 
Bleakwood, Call, Gist, Buna, Evadale, and Deweyville
930 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible Thursday
  morning. Light accumulations of frozen precipitation possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southwest Louisiana and 
  southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

In Louisiana, call 511 for road information. In Texas, visit
www.drivetexas.org for road information.

&&

$$
591 
WWUS44 KLCH 180949
WSWLCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
349 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

...Light Wintry Weather Expected This Morning...

A swath of light freezing drizzle is ongoing early this morning
across parts of the Texas Lakes Region into west Central
Louisiana, roughly along and north of a Woodville to Leesville
line. Light precipitation will continue to be possible in this 
area through the morning, primarily in the form of a light
freezing drizzle, though sleet and/or snow could mix in at times.
No significant additional accumulations of wintry weather are
expected.


LAZ027-181800-
/O.CAN.KLCH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
Vernon-
Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, 
and Slagle
349 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Light mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations
  of less than one half of an inch and ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze.

* WHERE...Vernon County.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Call 511 for road information.

&&

$$

LAZ028-029-181100-
/O.CAN.KLCH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
Rapides-Avoyelles-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville,
Bunkie, Cottonport, Simmesport, and Mansura
349 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The threat of additional accumulations of wintry weather has 
ended. However, travel conditions likely remain hazardous in 
parts of the area due to existing ice, which will linger through
much of the morning. Motorists are urged to follow the
instructions of local authorities, slow down and use caution 
while traveling.

$$

LAZ030>033-TXZ201-261-262-181100-
/O.CAN.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-Hardin-Southern Jasper-
Southern Newton-
Including the cities of Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta, 
Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou, 
Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Lumberton, Silsbee, Gist, 
Buna, Evadale, and Deweyville
349 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
The threat of additional accumulations of wintry weather has 
ended. However, travel conditions likely remain hazardous in 
parts of the area due to existing ice, which will linger through
much of the morning. Motorists are urged to follow the
instructions of local authorities, slow down and use caution 
while traveling.


$$

TXZ180-259-260-181800-
/O.CON.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
Tyler-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Including the cities of Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, 
Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, 
Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, 
Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, and Call
349 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
TODAY...

* WHAT...Light mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations
  of less than one half of an inch and ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze.

* WHERE...Northern Newton, Northern Jasper and Tyler Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Visit www.drivetexas.org for road information.

&&

$$

13
390 
WWUS44 KLCH 181648
WSWLCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1048 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED STILL DANGEROUS ROADS...

.The chance for additional winter weather accumulation has ended.
However, temperatures will struggle to get above freezing today,
then fall back into the 20s tonight. Therefore, roadways will 
still have icy conditions.

LAZ027-TXZ180-259-260-181800-
/O.CAN.KLCH.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210218T1800Z/
Vernon-Tyler-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle, 
Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville,
Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, 
Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, 
Bleakwood, and Call
1048 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Although the any additional winter weather precipitation and
accumulation is expected, travel will still be hazardous as roads
remain icy.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lake Charles, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Feb 16, 11:35 PM CST, 4 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 16, 11:35 PM CST, 4 hours 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1135 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

.DISCUSSION...
For 02/17/2021 06Z TAF Issuance

&&

.AVIATION...
Beginning to see the first returns in east Texas creeping into
range of the radar, but expect things to remain dry the next few
hours at least. Overall not many changes with this TAF package.
Still expect lowering CIGS to MVFR from west to east through the
overnight with precip chances increasing as a disturbance slides
through. Kept TEMPO groups at BPT/LCH for some FZRA to mix in
towards the onset of precip, but surface temps have remained
fairly warm so far, so might be looking at predominately rain.
Conversely, AEX looks to be dealing with the vast majority of
precip coming in the form of FZRA, with maybe some periods of RA
and IP mixed in. The remaining terminals, LFT/ARA, should stay
warm enough to remain all RA. Some guidance suggests limited
instability could build in along the I-10 corridor and some
thunder may be possible, but not enough confidence to add any VCTS
in this package. Precip comes to an end from west to east, but
lingering low level moisture is expected keep low CIGS over the
terminals. Winds through the period will shift in association with
surface low pressure sliding east along the Gulf coast, becoming a
bit gusty at times at the southern terminals.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 951 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/

UPDATE...Temperatures across the region have mostly plateaued.
The hard freeze warning was cancelled for a portion of the area,
and probably could have been trimmed farther. Lower Acadiana still
has temperatures in the mid to upper 20s with an isolated location
or two possibly still at 25. From interior East Texas through Cen
LA temperatures may fall back into the mid 20s from the upper 20s
to low 30s.

The latest hi-res guidance indicates around 0.25" of ice will be
possible from northern Hardin County, northern Beauregard Parish
and northward. Therefore the WSW was extended south.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/

DISCUSSION...
For 02/17/2021 00Z TAF Issuance

AVIATION...
Area radars remain devoid of precipitation at this hour, though a
stratus deck ~3000-4500 ft can be seen moving eastward across the
TX/LA state line. Expect this to encroach upon the remaining
terminals moving into the evening and overnight, with CIGS
lowering to MVFR. Biggest impact this TAF cycle is in regards to
another disturbance overrunning the antecedent cold surface air
mass, in turn resulting in the development of surface low pressure
in the NW Gulf tomorrow morning/afternoon. Precip chances
increase after midnight and continue to remain elevated until the
disturbance pushes east of the region. Given warm air overrunning
subfreezing surface temps to begin with, some TEMPO FZRA is
expected to mix in at BPT and LCH for a few hours. Some -IP
possible as well. Surface temps along the I-10 corridor warm
more noticeably after sunrise, so a switchover to all RA is
expected for the remainder of the event at LCH/BPT, with RA the
favored precip type throughout at LFT/ARA. AEX remains the most
likely to deal with prolonged FZRA and -IP with temps remaining
below freezing for most of the day. Some rain will mix in as
surface temps finally manage to warm above freezing, and have a
switchover to rain included by late afternoon before precip clears
the region. In regards to winds, winds will become gusty and
shift in relation to the surface low developing and sliding east
in the Gulf.

50

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Where skies have remained clear, temperatures have managed to
claw their way just above freezing across most of the area this
afternoon although there are still a few sites reporting sub
freezing temperatures. The clearly evident layer of ice on the
visible satellite has become a bit more opaque this afternoon as
these areas begin to thaw. We are actually somewhat fortunate in
this regard as large parts of Texas have remained enshrouded in
cloud cover this afternoon and are reporting temperatures in the
teens and lower twenties at this hour.

The short term forecast philosophy is largely unchanged although
considerable uncertainty exists. A surface low is forecast to
develop this evening and lift up the Texas gulf coast tonight into
Wednesday initializing widespread showers as it does so. With
overnight lows expected to fall back into the upper teens or
lower twenties across interior parts of southeast Texas and
central Louisiana, another round of winter weather is likely.
Forecast soundings continue to depict a well defined warm nose in
place from 3kft to 10kft making freezing rain the predominant
precip type although some sleet or snow could work its way to the
surface. Confidence is relatively high on this front and the
winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning with this
package.

Less certain are the surface temperatures across central
Louisiana. Most guidance brings temperatures slightly above
freezing during the afternoon, but should this be slightly
overdone, the freezing rain could persist through the afternoon,
into Wednesday night and even through mid morning Thursday. Should
this prove to be the case, the presently forecast ice
accumulations could be underdone.

Regardless of whether temperatures actually make it above
32F, remaining precipitation is expected to convert back to
freezing rain near or shortly after sunset Wednesday evening as
temperatures drop back below freezing.

There is fairly wide discrepancy between guidance as to how much
precipitation will linger into Thursday ahead of a pacific cold
front, but temperatures are progged to warm above freezing
areawide by late Thursday morning which will turn any remaining
precipitation liquid and allow any accumulated ice to begin
melting.

Behind the front, high pressure builds across the region allowing
afternoon highs to warm by about 10 degrees each day Friday
through the weekend although hard freezes will be possible both
Friday and Saturday mornings.

Jones

MARINE...
Light winds this afternoon will increase out of the east tonight
into early Wednesday as surface low moves across the coastal
waters. Strong winds and elevated seas will persist Wednesday and
before turning offshore Thursday as the low moves away and
a frontal boundary pushes through. Winds and seas will subside
Friday as the high slides across the area, with onshore flow
developing on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  29  19  35  29 /   0  30 100  60
LCH  33  29  39  33 /   0  10  90  50
LFT  34  27  45  35 /   0  10  90  70
BPT  35  29  38  32 /   0  20 100  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ027>033.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday
     for LAZ027>030.

     Hard Freeze Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ043>045-
     052>055.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ180-259-260.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday
     for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Thursday afternoon for
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

AVIATION...50
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 16, 3:54 PM CST, 12 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ201-215-216-261-262-172200-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Louisiana,
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
A hard freeze is expected overnight tonight with low temperatures
dropping into the mid 20s. At these temperatures, damage to exposed
pipes could occur.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hard Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Widespread showers will develop beginning early Wednesday morning in
response to an area of low pressure moving across the northwestern
gulf of Mexico. A brief period of freezing rain could occur before
sunrise, but no ice accumulation is expected. Showers will continue
through late Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ030>033-172200-
Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana and
southwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
A hard freeze is expected overnight tonight with low temperatures
dropping into the lower 20s. At these temperatures, damage to
exposed pipes could occur.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hard Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Widespread showers will develop beginning early Wednesday morning in
response to an area of low pressure moving across the northwestern
gulf of Mexico. A brief period of freezing rain could occur before
sunrise, but no ice accumulation is expected. Showers will continue
through late Thursday morning.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hard Freeze Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ027>029-TXZ180-259-260-172200-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Tyler-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, west
central Louisiana and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
A hard freeze is expected overnight tonight with low temperatures
dropping into the upper teens. At these temperatures, damage to
exposed pipes could occur.

Freezing rain is expected to begin developing after midnight as an
area of low pressure moves across the northwestern gulf of Mexico.
Ice accumulations of 0.1 to 0.3 inch is expected.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hard Freeze Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
The freezing rain may transition over to a cold rain by Wednesday
afternoon, but if temperatures are slightly lower than forecast, the
freezing rain could persist through much of the day and into
Thursday morning.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hard Freeze Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-172200-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Winds will increase as a surface low moves across the northwestern
gulf tonight into Wednesday. A small craft advisory has been issued
beginning at midnight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Widespread showers will develop Wednesday in response to an area of
low pressure moving across the northwestern gulf of Mexico. Winds and
seas will remain elevated Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front
turning winds offshore Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-172200-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal lakes and bays of
the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Winds will increase as a surface low moves across the northwestern
gulf tonight into Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Widespread showers will develop Wednesday in response to an area of
low pressure moving across the northwestern gulf of Mexico. Winds and
waves will remain elevated Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front
turning winds offshore Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lake Charles, LA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 17, 10:25 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningLCHRapides40 days

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in Louisiana, 2021Winter Weather Advisories in Texas, 2021Every winter weather advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.