Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
407 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
A line of storms was still firing this morning along the frontal
boundary that was located from near Shreveport to northwest of
Houston. Gusty winds and small hail was indicated on
radar...however...the overall trend has been steady state or
slight weakening. HRRR guidance model shows the frontal boundary
to continue to make progress arriving into interior southeast
Texas after 4 am and into southwest Louisiana by mid morning. The
frontal boundary is expected to stall near the I-10 corridor with
development weakening or decreasing around noon. SPC showing our
area with just general thunderstorms today...but cannot rule out
gusty winds and small hail with the stronger storms along the
line. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop during the afternoon as daytime heating destabilizes the
airmass.

The frontal boundary should stall tonight as upper level high
pressure aloft strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico and the upper
level short wave departs. Loss of daytime heating later this
evening should keep any development to a minimum overnight. As
the front washes out on Tuesday....showers and thunderstorms
should redevelop as southerly flow returns along and north of the
I-10 corridor where moisture convergence increases and
precipitable water values rebound.

Wednesday...high pressure to remain in control of our weather with
a return to the usual drier conditions with near normal highs and
lows.

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Sunday]...

As we move into the extended portion of the forecast period, a
vigorous shortwave dropping through the Plains trof will further
deepen this feature while simultaneously pushing a sfc cold front
sewd from the lee of the Rockies toward the forecast area. An
initial round of showers/thunderstorms look possible on Thursday,
especially across the nwrn extremes of the forecast area where lift
will be best before the best dynamics lift newd away from the
region. A few showers or storms may continue into Thursday night as
a weak sfc pre-frontal trof crosses the region.

The cold front is progged to move into the nwrn zones by perhaps
late Friday afternoon, with this feature crossing the remainder of
the forecast area during the evening/early overnight hours. Forecast
soundings indicate sufficient moisture/instability/CAPE for
showers/storms as the front pushes through, followed by some
straggling post-frontal shower activity in the weak overrunning
before a drier wrly flow encroaches aloft during the day on Saturday.

The initial impacts from this boundary will be felt across the nwrn
1/3 of the forecast area by sunrise Saturday morning with developing
CAA helping push temps down into the mid/upper 50s. The remainder of
the area will notice the cooler temps during the day on Saturday as
highs will only top out in the mid/upper 70s (except for possibly
the extreme sern areas where temps could touch 80F).

The remainder of the forecast period looks dry and pleasant with
subseasonal temps as lows remain in the lower/mid 50s and highs stay
in the 70s.

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&&

.MARINE...
A light to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue today through
most of the week despite the approach of a cool front which is
expected to stall near the I-10 corridor tonight and wash out on
Tuesday. A stronger cool front is expected to approach the
coastal waters late Friday bringing stronger offshore flow into
next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  70  89  69 /  50  20  40   0
LCH  88  75  87  73 /  70  20  30  10
LFT  89  75  89  72 /  30  10  20   0
BPT  88  73  87  72 /  60  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT early this morning
     for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-112100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A complex of strong convection over Texas is expected to enter the
western portions of the forecast area. This activity is expected to
weaken as it reaches the forecast area and the probability for
widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day.

At this time, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-112100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Elevated onshore winds will occur tonight with wind speeds 15 to 20
knots. Small craft should exercise caution. Otherwise, The
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
351 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

TXZ180-259-110930-
Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
351 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Tyler and
northwestern Jasper Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 351 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chester, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Colmesneil, Chester, Rockland, Ebenezer and Sam Rayburn Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3105 9454 3105 9449 3103 9447 3109 9417
      3110 9407 3084 9413 3088 9463 3089 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 0851Z 274DEG 26KT 3100 9454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
437 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

TXZ259-260-111000-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
437 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Newton
and northeastern Jasper Counties through 500 AM CDT...

At 436 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Browndell, or 10 miles east of Ebenezer, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Burkeville, Browndell, Harrisburg, Mayflower, Farrsville and
Wiergate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 9362 3099 9406 3111 9408 3112 9404
      3114 9403 3116 9391 3117 9364
TIME...MOT...LOC 0936Z 261DEG 33KT 3109 9399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

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