Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
640 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.AVIATION...

Line of storms moving southwestward across the CWA will be the
main concern through the next few hours, mainly for LCH and BPT.
Have included TEMPO groups for winds, reduced VIS, and lower
ceilings, all of which are expected to impact LCH within the next
half hour and BPT in an hour or two. On the other hand, conditions
will be improving across the Acadiana terminals through the next
hour or so. This line will continue to move southwestward through
the evening, and should begin to dissipate with sunset. Overnight,
VFR conditions are expected, with another round of reduced VIS at
AEX/LCH likely through the 10-13Z period. Tomorrow, we start the
day dry and mostly sunny, with rain chances returning through the
afternoon. Have included VCTS/VCSH at all sites for the
possibility of scattered afternoon convection, which should once
again dissipate with sunset.

17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021/

SHORT TERM [Through Thursday night]...

Daytime heating is allowing for some showers and a few
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon over east central and
southeast Louisiana, along with southwest Mississippi. With
northeast flow a loft around an upper level ridge this activity
will push southwest and across the forecast area for the remainder
of the afternoon, then dissipate quickly in the evening and after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Before the convection started to develop, a few reliable
observation sites in east central and south central Louisiana made
it up to at-least 109F for a heat index. Will keep the heat
advisory going in that area for another couple of hours, then by
6 pm, enough convection, cloud cover, and rain cooled outflow
boundaries should have taken hold to keep apparent temperatures
below criteria.

The upper level ridge that has been the main weather player will
continue to gradually shift northward over the next couple of
days. This will allow for a better atmospheric moisture profile to
be found across the forecast area, along with disturbances
rotating westward around it. The result will be an increase in the
daily diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The main concern with the
storms that develop over the next couple of days will be brief
torrential downpours.

With more convection in store, the apparent temperatures in the
afternoon should be kept in check enough that a heat advisory is
not anticipate tomorrow or Thursday.

Rua

LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...

The upper low currently north of Hispaniola will have drifted into
the northern gulf coast by Friday while weakening. With this
weakness aloft and the typically high moisture values that will
already be in place scattered to numerous showers and storms can be
expected.

This weekend into early next week the forecast will be dependent on
what and where a potential tropical system becomes and migrates
towards. The national blend was left in the forecast which indicates
high chances for rain along with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

05

MARINE...

Weak high pressure will be found over the northwest Gulf through
the end of the week before dissipating. This will allow for mainly
light and variable winds and light seas.

A more profound southerly flow will develop by the end of the week
into the weekend as another area of high pressure centered off the
southeast US coast will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  96  75  93 /  20  50  10  60
LCH  77  94  76  90 /  20  50  30  80
LFT  76  94  76  90 /  20  70  30  80
BPT  76  95  76  91 /  20  50  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
321 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

LAZ027-030-031-041-042-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-252100-
Vernon-Beauregard-Allen-Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
321 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorm activity will become scattered to numerous
Wednesday through Sunday. No severe thunderstorms are expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ028-029-032-033-043>045-052>055-252100-
Rapides-Avoyelles-Evangeline-St. Landry-Acadia-Lafayette-
Upper St. Martin-Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-
321 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana and southwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Remainder of the afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorm activity will become scattered to numerous
Wednesday through Sunday. No severe thunderstorms are expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-252100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
321 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorm activity will become scattered to numerous
Wednesday through Sunday. No severe thunderstorms are expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

LAZ027-030-031-TXZ260-250030-
Allen LA-Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-Northern Newton TX-
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Beauregard, western
Vernon, southwestern Allen Parishes in southwestern Louisiana and
northeastern Newton Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 634 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Burr Ferry to 6 miles southwest of De
Ridder to near Dry Creek. Movement was southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
De Ridder, Leesville, Kinder, Rosepine, Merryville, Anacoco, Reeves,
Dry Creek, Singer, Ragley, Toledo Bend Dam, Bon Weir, Burkeville, New
Llano, Hornbeck, Bivens, Mayflower, Leblanc, Junction and Oretta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3095 9319 3044 9280 3044 9306 3042 9313
      3040 9313 3040 9338 3049 9339 3048 9349
      3063 9366 3117 9374 3117 9358 3119 9355
      3128 9353 3128 9344 3135 9340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 028DEG 14KT 3111 9346 3080 9338 3066 9310

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Landreneau

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