Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1155 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.DISCUSSION...
For 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Added TSRA mention first hour at KLCH based on latest radar
trends, then TEMPO for light fog closer to sunrise based on wet
grounds/decent radiating conditions...otherwise no significant
changes to previous TAF thinking.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 942 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have continued to develop this
evening well after sunset likely as a result of some outflow
convergence from the stronger clusters of thunderstorms in and
around Jackson, MS. The HRRR is depicting the current storms
relatively well and shows continued isolated development through
the late evening with the isolated convection moving offshore, as
is typical, early tomorrow morning. Adjusted PoPs modestly to
reflect this thinking.

Better cloud cover and convection still expected tomorrow as the
influence of the upper ridge centered over Colorado and Wyoming
becomes less prevalent. This will keep heat indices below
advisory criteria across the area for the first time in three days
although afternoon highs will still climb into the mid 90s where
storms do not develop.

Jones

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

DISCUSSION...
For 00z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
No significant changes to previous TAF thinking. Diurnal
convection, although spotty, continues at this time across the
region...this activity should be winding down now that we approach
sunset/loss of heating. Overnight, VFR conditions look to prevail
although we will have to watch for light fog potential later
tonight around areas that got rainfall today. Today looks like a
repeat of today, although with a little more convective coverage
given less capping aloft per forecast soundings as the mid-level
ridge looks to weaken.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

SYNOPSIS...
Latest UA analysis and WV imagery show a broad and sprawling
anticyclonic pattern from the Intermountain West east acrs the
plains into the southeast. A few weak disturbances are noted
within and around the expansive ridge, including a couple of weak
impulses over the western and northeast Gulf of Mexico. At the
sfc, weak high pres acrs the region was resulting in light and
generally vrbl winds, while a weak trough was noted over the cntl
and eastern Gulf.

KLCH radar shows sctd showers and storms developing from NE LA
southward to the lower Atchafalaya Basin, within an axis of 2+
inch PWATs. Activity was drifting west to southwest. Elsewhere,
some very sparse isolated showers have struggled to develop.

Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have risen into the middle
90s acrs much of the area. Corresponding heat index readings have
been abv 100 degrees, with a few spots around 108.

24

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday night]...

The aforementioned showers and storms will continue to develop
through late aftn as they propagate into our eastern zones, then
gradually decrease and dissipate through sunset as daytime
heating wanes. Conditions will remain very warm and humid
overnight, with lows in the middle and upper 70s.

Showers and tstms will increase in coverage Tuesday and Wednesday
as the main influence of the ridge stays northwest of the area,
while subtle disturbances move west acrs the Gulf of Mexico.
Convection should remain sctd and diurnal in nature, developing
by early aftn and continuing until around sunset. While a few
storms could produce brief heavy rainfall, amounts are not
expected to be excessive and, for the most part, should stay under
an inch.

High temps the next couple of days will be hot, outside of any
cooling showers. Temperatures will be near normal (lower 90s) acrs
the southern half of the area, while further inland, temps could
top out a few degrees warmer. With temperatures a smidge lower,
apparent temperatures are not expected to be quite as hot, and
heat index values should stay below advisory criteria, although a
few locations in Avoyelles Parish could briefly flirt with heat
index values around 108 Tuesday aftn.

24

LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...

Early on the region will be on the southern periphery of ridge
centered over the midwest. Guidance also continues to indicate high
moisture content across the area as well. In addition some weak
waves of energy from the east will cause an enhancement of the
diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity.  Little more ridging
builds back into the lat weekend into early next week along with a
drier airmass with rain chances lowering back to more normal
summertime chances.

Temperatures still to remain warm through the period.

27

MARINE...
A generally onshore flow should prevail through the week. Winds
are expected to remain light and seas low through the period.
Shower and tstm chcs are expected to increase by midweek, with
sctd showers and tstms possible through the end of the week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  95  76  95 /  20  70  30  50
LCH  78  93  77  93 /  30  60  30  40
LFT  78  93  76  94 /  30  60  20  50
BPT  76  93  76  94 /  20  50  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
337 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-272045-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
337 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours. A few storms may produce heavy
downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-272045-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
337 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly during
the late night and early morning hours, then again during the late
afternoon into early evening. Gusty winds, elevated seas, and
frequent cloud to water lightning will be possible in and near the
thunderstorms.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1111 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

LAZ042-043-052-074-270500-
Acadia LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Vermilion LA-East Cameron LA-
1111 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Morse, or near Gueydan, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Arthur, Gueydan, Klondike, Morse, Riceville, Wright, Lyons
Point, Estherwood and Florence Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 3019 9246 3008 9235 2983 9256 3006 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 051DEG 16KT 3010 9248

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1245 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

LAZ041-042-074-270630-
Calcasieu LA-Jefferson Davis LA-East Cameron LA-
1245 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1244 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hayes, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Lake, Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge, Hayes, Hacketts
Corner, Sweet Lake, Gibbstown, Holmwood, Heberts Marina and Bell
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2992 9324 2993 9324 2995 9326 2999 9327
      3002 9327 3005 9328 3005 9330 3008 9331
      3017 9309 3017 9294 3013 9283 3003 9284
      2993 9291 2982 9313
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 060DEG 14KT 3006 9296

Warthen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
224 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

LAZ052-270800-
Vermilion LA-
224 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 223 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pecan Island, moving west at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Forked Island, Pecan Island, Freshwater City and Esther.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2958 9262 2983 9261 2994 9239 2997 9213
      2975 9218 2974 9217 2975 9221 2972 9219
      2970 9215 2968 9215 2970 9218 2969 9219
      2967 9215 2964 9213 2963 9214 2963 9213
      2959 9212 2955 9223 2954 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 087DEG 9KT 2965 9239

Warthen