Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
330 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday Night]
A series of disturbances wrapping around an upper level low
centered over Illinois this afternoon continues to send lines of
convection through the area. The next of these is presently
moving through Polk and Liberty counties in southeast Texas as of
this writing. Latest runs of the HRRR show this line gradually
weakening as it moves across the region with the loss of daytime
heating.

A weak surface pressure gradient will allow winds to calm
overnight and with soils remaining saturated, patchy light fog
appears likely once again during the early morning hours tomorrow.
Don't expect fog to become dense enough to be anything more than a
minor nuisance. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate after
sunrise.

The aforementioned upper low will begin to lift off to the
northeast tomorrow and while there will still be some marginal
upper level support, convection tomorrow will be more diurnally
driven and less well organized than has been seen the last couple
of days. Wednesday's convection will be exclusively diurnally
driven with weak gradients both at the surface and aloft. With
such a weak atmospheric profile, it wouldn't be a surprise to see
tropical funnel clouds develop Wednesday afternoon.

Jones

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...

Not many changes in the extended period this afternoon, as global
models continue to show the region on the western flank of a low/mid
level ridge that will maintain a steady and moist SE flow underneath
a general weakness aloft. This will yield daily and mainly diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms with daytime highs in the lower 90s
and morning lows in the lower to mid 70s.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the
forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day through next weekend. Locally higher winds and
seas will be possible around storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  73  91 /  50  50  10  30
LCH  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  10  50
LFT  74  89  75  90 /  30  60  10  50
BPT  75  90  75  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
330 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-132030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
330 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through mid evening before ending late this evening.

Saturated soil and light winds will allow for patchy fog development
during the predawn hours Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A daily chance for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms.
Locally heavy downpours and occasional to frequent cloud to ground
lightning will be the main hazards.

Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-132030-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
330 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through mid evening before ending late this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A daily chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible. The storms will bring locally higher winds and seas, along
with occasional to frequent cloud to water lightning.

Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
444 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

TXZ216-261-262-122215-
Orange TX-Southern Newton TX-Southern Jasper TX-
444 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...NORTH
CENTRAL ORANGE AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gist, or over Mauriceville, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mauriceville, Hartburg and Gist.

LAT...LON 3017 9386 3023 9395 3038 9392 3028 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 205DEG 5KT 3026 9389

Tingler

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