Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
445 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (Tuesday and Wednesday)...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms ongoing this
early morning in response to a frontal boundary sagging south into
the northern tier of the CWA. This activity will continue and
become less widespread going into tonight. Afternoon max
temperatures will only be slightly cooler, hence my refusal to
outright call this a cold front. MaxT's this afternoon will range
from the mid to upper 80s while overnight lows will see little to
no cooling. The frontal boundary will usher in drier air from the
north, however northerly winds are not expected to persist beyond
tonight. Forecast PWATs will drop off into the 1.6 to 1.9 range
instead of the 2+ range where they have hovered for the last few
days. Tomorrow (Wednesday), the frontal boundary will retrograde
back into the area as a warm front. Wednesday will be slightly
more pleasant with less rain chances but a few degrees warmer.
Activity will be limited until the afternoon, with diurnally
driven popup showers expected.
Stigger/87

LONG TERM (Thursday through Wednesday)...
Weak ridging aloft will extend from Baja California acrs into
Texas... Louisiana and Mississippi Thursday into Saturday before
breaking down. The weak ridging will be enough though to bring to a
halt to convection that will develop each day drg the late
mrng/early aftn hrs and cont thru sunset before falling apart. Over
the weekend the Bermuda high will ridge in acrs Fl and into Texas.
Surges of gulf moisture will be driven into Texas and Louisiana and
with the typical diurnal heating will produce just storms in the
region.

Monday an upper lvl trof will drive will slide into the central US
pushing another front down from the northwest and this will collide
with gulf moisture getting push in on the backside of the surface
ridge... the result pop numbers are expected to climb Monday into
Tuesday. Otherwise... persistence is the rule thru this forecast
cycle.
K. Kuyper/17

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow to become light and variable as a weak frontal
boundary makes its way south into the area today. Shortly after,
onshore flow will resume and remain dominant for the duration of
the forecast period. Seas will remain in the 2-5 foot range for
the next few hours before they start to come down later today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  69  91  75 /  30   0  30   0
LCH  88  74  91  77 /  70  20  50  10
LFT  86  73  90  75 /  90  20  60  10
BPT  88  74  91  77 /  60  40  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
409 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-230915-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
409 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expected to persist over
the area this morning and thru the rest of the day. An arriving
front from the north will lead to high chances for thunderstorms in
the early morning on Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop along
a decaying frontal boundary Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional rounds
of scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon
Thursday through Saturday with the highest probabilities across
southwest and south central Louisiana. While widespread severe
weather is not expected, some of these storms will have the
potential
to produce gusty winds, torrential rain and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-230915-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
409 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expected to persist over
the area into the night. An arriving front from the north will lead
to high chances for thunderstorms in the early morning on Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
through Wednesday, with activity becoming more widely scattered
through the end of the week. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing locally higher winds and seas, torrential rain and
frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
427 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

TXZ201-215-221015-
Jefferson TX-Hardin TX-
427 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 426 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thicket in Hardin county in southeast Texas, moving south at 10 mph.

Pea size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kountze, Sour Lake, Nome, Saratoga, Thicket, Wildwood, China, Batson,
Votaw, Honey Island and Village Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3053 9454 3053 9430 3005 9428
      3003 9444 3011 9445 3011 9460 3049 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 000DEG 9KT 3038 9460

K. Kuyper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
530 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

LAZ030-041-073-TXZ180-216-259>262-221100-
Calcasieu LA-West Cameron LA-Beauregard LA-Orange TX-
Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
Southern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
530 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 529 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Devils Pocket, or 11 miles north of Deweyville, moving south at 20
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orange, Vidor, Bridge City, West Orange, Vinton, Kirbyville,
Merryville, Deweyville, Johnsons Bayou, De Quincy, Call, Starks,
Sabine National Wildlife, Fields, Bon Weir, Mauriceville, Buna, Gist,
Trout Creek and Lunita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2981 9386 2985 9379 2997 9376 2999 9380
      3000 9379 2998 9383 2999 9386 2997 9385
      2999 9391 3072 9414 3075 9346 2988 9337
      2988 9341 2986 9344 2982 9337 2976 9336
      2977 9348 2974 9375 2970 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1029Z 344DEG 17KT 3047 9376

K. Kuyper