Alert archive / Louisiana / Special Weather Statements in 2021
Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA
NWS Lake Charles, LA issued this special weather statement at May 16, 2021, 1:27 PM CDT for Beauregard Parish, Louisiana. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2021, 1:27 PM CDT (18:27 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2021, 2:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 33 min
- Issued by
- NWS Lake Charles, LA
County Beauregard Parish, LA
The radar
The Ft Polk radar (KPOE), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 80 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -171 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 899 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 12 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -28 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -6 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lake Charles, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 16, 12:57 PM CDT, 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 16, 12:57 PM CDT, 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1257 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
.DISCUSSION...
18Z 16MAY21 TAFs
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR cigs dropped a bit earlier, with a majority of the sites
falling out of the VFR category within the last few hours. In
addition to that, showers currently popping up on radar near the
KLCH and KBPT terminals. A mix of lower CIGS along with TSRA is
expected to spread from west to east in response to an upper level
disturbance moving into the region. Showers and thunderstorms
will be intermittent through this period, prompting tempos /
prob30s throughout and limiting the FM groups to vicinity.
Stigger/87
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021/
UPDATE...
radar is indicating isolated light showers over the southern
Louisiana coastal waters attm. For the rest of the day look for
increasing clouds and a slow increase through the afternoon into
the evening hours for storm activity. The best potential for storm
development will be in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.
Storms today will move to the north and northeast. Current zones
are fine at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFS
AVIATION...
VFR ceilings will prevail through the day before lowering to MVFR
after midnight as showers and thunderstorms develop in association
with the approach of an upper level trough. The tightening
pressure gradient between the surface reflection of this trough
and high pressure centered over the eastern U.S. will result in
breezy winds beginning late this morning and continuing through
the evening. Precipitation will develop in the vicinity of BPT as
early as this afternoon before gradually spreading east and
impacting the Louisiana terminals late tonight into early Monday
morning.
Jones
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021/
DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Today Through Monday)...
Increasingly dense cloud cover continues to work into the region
this morning in advance of a shortwave wrapping around a west
coast upper low that is presently bisecting Texas meridionally.
Short range guidance has been trending toward more scattered
convection initializing this afternoon across southeast Texas as
the shortwave approaches. PoPs reflect this appropriately. Much
more widespread convection is expected Monday as the trof axis
becomes centered over the region. Forecast max PWAT values are
presently around 1.7 inches. Some nuisance flooding could occur
Monday across areas that see multiple heavy rain producing storms,
but the greater flood risk is expected by mid to late week.
Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Still Looking like an active and wet period through Friday, with
some potential for strong convection and heavy rainfall, then rain
chances look to gradually decrease over next weekend.
Surface high pressure will become established over the southeast
CONUS and ridge into the forecast area. This will provide a long
fetch of southerlies in the low levels to bring in abundant Gulf
moisture.
Moisture profiles during the Tuesday through Friday period show
precipitable water values above 1.75 inches, which is above the 90th
percentile of SPC climo for this time of year, to near 2 inches
along the Sabine River Basin. Mean layer relative humidity values
between 1000-500 will also be on the high side and above 70 percent
through that period and above 80 percent at times along the Sabine
River Basin.
In the meantime, an upper level low will be moving slowly east out
of the Rockies to start the period and then will open up and lift
out by Thursday. Disturbances will move out from the low and across
the forecast area with the southwest flow aloft. Each disturbance
will provide the lift for the moist air mass to produce widespread
shower activity.
Moderate instability will be noted, although a lot will depend on
any daytime heating that may occur, so thunderstorm activity is also
expected with the showers. Overall shear values are not too
impressive, which may keep the severe potential down. However, any
strong convection that develops with the instability will allow for
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall.
A weakness in the sub-tropical ridge will persist through Friday,
keeping rain chances high. Trends in the guidance show an upper level
ridge expanding into the forecast area from the east, and if this
occurs, will help reduce rain chances over the weekend.
Rua
MARINE...
Small craft should exercise caution today as winds of 15 to 20
knots with higher gusts along with seas of 4 to 6 feet are
expected over the coastal waters. Moderate onshore flow will
persist through the week. A series of upper level disturbances
will cross the region producing daily scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters. Seas are
expected to remain elevated as the pressure gradient will
strengthen.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 68 81 69 83 / 40 70 30 70
LCH 70 82 72 85 / 60 70 40 70
LFT 69 82 70 83 / 40 60 40 60
BPT 70 81 72 83 / 70 70 30 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Monday evening for GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 3:53 AM CDT, 9 hours 34 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 353 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-170900- Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry- Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin- Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron- Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton- Southern Jasper-Southern Newton- 353 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and southeast Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across southeast Texas this afternoon with isolated showers developing across southwest Louisiana tonight. Severe weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A series of upper level disturbances and a very moist airmass will allow for a likelihood of of thunderstorms Monday through Friday, with some decrease in thunderstorm activity next weekend. While widespread severe weather is not expected, some storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-170900- Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay- Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from 20 to 60 NM- 353 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Small craft should exercise caution today and tonight as winds of 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts along with seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected over the coastal waters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Moderate southeast flow will bring about borderline small craft advisory/small craft exercise caution conditions from Tuesday night through Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 16, 1:27 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 127 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 LAZ027-030-031-161900- Allen LA-Beauregard LA-Vernon LA- 127 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BEAUREGARD...SOUTHERN VERNON AND WESTERN ALLEN PARISHES UNTIL 200 PM CDT... At 126 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Longville, or near Ragley, moving north at 25 mph. Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... De Ridder, Rosepine, Reeves, Dry Creek, Pitkin, Sugartown, Ragley, Grant, Longville, Tulla, Cravens and Bundick Lake. LAT...LON 3048 9299 3048 9333 3098 9342 3097 9285 TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 181DEG 23KT 3057 9318 Stigger/87
The office that day
Everything else NWS Lake Charles, LA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2:03 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LCH | Vernon | 27 min |
| May 16, 2:26 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | LCH | Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Orange | 38 days |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Louisiana, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.