Special Marine Warning 85, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
248 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Today thru 12Z FRI

Yesterdays temporary "break" from heat indices below 100 has
clearly come to an end. Warmer and humid conditions have returned,
yielding indices in the 100-105 range. It's possible that a heat
advisory will not be necessary either today nor tomorrow.
Nevertheless we advise anyone to be cautious while outside.

A few storms popped up on radar within the last hour or so. This
activity is expected to continue into the evening hours before
tapering out tonight. On Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, shower
and thunderstorm activity will be limited thanks to relatively drier
air filtering into the region as a high pressure builds in north of
us.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...

The main attention during this forecast period will be potential
tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

The latest tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane
Center issued at 1 pm CDT, has a high probability (80 percent) of
some sort of tropical development over the Bay of
Campeche/southern/western Gulf of Mexico area for the next 5 days,
and this is mainly by the start of this forecast period. This
basically means that under the expected conditions in that hatched
area 8 out of 10 times some sort of tropical cyclone (including a
depression) forms.

There is still a lot of spread overall in the ensemble members of
the main global models and no one run of any deterministic guidance
is given any more weight than the other as for the details and
impacts of the potential system and of course the impacts are the
key thing. Thus, confidence still remains low in the extended
forecast for that reason.

The current overall consensus of the reliable guidance is showing
the following scenario...

The tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico will merge
with a tropical wave that is currently over the western Caribbean
Sea with the result the formation of an area of low pressure that
will likely be tropical in nature.

For Friday into the weekend, a northern stream short wave will move
down from the plains and likely erode the eastern side of the upper
level ridge that is centered over the southwest US, allowing for a
general weakness to form over the northwest and central Gulf of
Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build across the
Caribbean Sea through the Yucatan. Therefore, the tropical
moisture and any low pressure entity should get pushed and pulled
in a general northerly direction.

Some keys will be where the low center finally forms, and how fast
the short wave erodes away the ridge, and if the short wave can pick
up the low center.

Thus, there looks to be increasing rain chances starting late Friday
into the weekend. As with any system like this, increase in winds
and seas will start over the coastal waters on Friday, with higher
and elevated tides along the coast during Friday.

If there are some positives, latest Ocean Heat Content and Tropical
Cyclone Heat Potential analysis over the western and central Gulf is
only modest which would hopefully discourage rapid intensification,
and decent shear is progged over the northern Gulf that could keep
whatever type of system that develops somewhat disorganized and
lopsided. With that it is not important to focus on the low center,
as impacts will likely be away from the center.

At this time, the number one hazard looks to be heavy rainfall which
could lead to flooding. Abundant tropical moisture is progged with
this system as precipitable water values at or above 2.5 inches,
along with mean layer relative humidity values over 90 percent.
Therefore, shower activity will be highly precipitation efficient
with high rainfall rates. Of course, at this time, it is highly
uncertain where this heavy rainfall activity will occur.

With the uncertainty in the forecast at this time, grids during
this time frame are close to the blend of national models, with QPF
weighted from WPC.

All interests in the forecast area should keep updated with the
latest tropical outlooks and information on the potential system in
the Gulf.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds along with low wave heights will
continue through Wednesday as high pressure continues to ridge
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical disturbance across
the southern Gulf of Mexico will increase the pressure gradient
across the northern Gulf, increasing winds and seas for Thursday
into the weekend. All marine interests should monitor the latest
tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center for
further information on this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  95  72  94 /   0  10   0   0
LCH  76  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10
LFT  75  93  73  92 /  20  20   0  10
BPT  73  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Ozone Action Day from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
251 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-162000-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
251 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms are
currently occurring and expected across the area. No severe
thunderstorms are expected, but stronger thunderstorms will be
capable of locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible but limited due
to drier air expected to filter in. By Friday into the weekend, the
chance for more widespread rainfall will increase as a tropical
disturbance moves north from the Bay of Campeche. The National
Hurricane Center is indicating a high chance (80 percent) for
tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days. Please continue to
monitor the latest forecast information from the hurricane center
and this office over the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-162000-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
251 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible but limited due
to drier air expected to filter in. By Friday into the weekend, the
chance for more widespread rainfall will increase as a tropical
disturbance moves north from the Bay of Campeche. The National
Hurricane Center is indicating a high chance (80 percent) for
tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days. Please continue to
monitor the latest forecast information from the hurricane center
and this office over the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
417 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

LAZ041-073-152130-
Calcasieu LA-West Cameron LA-
417 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMERON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CALCASIEU PARISHES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 416 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hackberry, or 9 miles southwest of Grand Lake, moving southwest at 15
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sabine National Wildlife and Hackberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2987 9378 3012 9354 3005 9333 2985 9335
      2987 9335 2988 9339 2988 9343 2986 9344
      2985 9343 2985 9341 2983 9339 2982 9339
      2982 9335 2978 9335
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 043DEG 13KT 2996 9341

Stigger/87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
422 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

TXZ201-152145-
Hardin TX-
422 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 422 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Honey Island, or near Saratoga, moving south at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Saratoga and Honey Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3043 9462 3049 9442 3025 9427 3016 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 340DEG 17KT 3035 9448

Stigger/87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
448 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

LAZ041-042-074-152245-
Calcasieu LA-Jefferson Davis LA-East Cameron LA-
448 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CAMERON...SOUTH
CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS AND SOUTHEASTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hayes, moving southwest at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Cameron, Welsh, Iowa, Grand Lake, Lake Charles Regional
Airport, Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge, Hayes, Hacketts Corner,
Heberts Marina, Thornwell, Lowry, Creole, Sweet Lake, Gibbstown,
Holmwood, Bell City, Lacassine and Rutherford Beach.

LAT...LON 2979 9332 2980 9335 2982 9335 2984 9332
      2984 9328 2985 9325 2990 9323 2997 9327
      3002 9327 3005 9329 3005 9332 3019 9335
      3028 9279 3006 9269 3005 9270 3004 9272
      3004 9270 2976 9315 2978 9328 2976 9334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 065DEG 23KT 3012 9292

Landreneau

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
505 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SW CAMERON            29.77N 93.34W
06/15/2021  M46 MPH          CAMERON            LA   C-MAN STATION

&&

TMOGGED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
512 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

TXZ201-152300-
Hardin TX-
512 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Batson, or near Saratoga, moving southwest at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sour Lake, Saratoga, Batson and Honey Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3040 9462 3040 9438 3019 9430 3010 9442
      3011 9443 3011 9460 3030 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 025DEG 28KT 3019 9455

K. Kuyper