Special Marine Warning 8, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1246 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

.DISCUSSION...
For the 03/17/21 1800 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern is convection spreading into the area from the west.
Used a blend of radar and latest HRRR to time most likely window
at each site, with generally VFR to MVFR conditions prevailing
away from the convection. VFR will prevail once the cold front and
associated convection push through this afternoon into early
evening.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/

UPDATE...
Tor watch issued for our area in effect until 6pm. The watch
covers the entire area with exception to the following LA
Parishes: Iberia, Upper/Lower St. Martin, and St. Mary.
Stigger/87

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 946 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/

UPDATE...
Updated the grids to reflect temps. As of 1445Z, no tor watches
for our area, however this is expected to change as the afternoon
period nears. The line of tstorms is currently moving across NLA
and SETX and is expected to reach our furthest northern county
shortly.
Stigger/87

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/

DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
No significant changes to TAF thinking with this package. IFR/MVFR
ceilings will continue this morning with just a slow rise in
heights with daytime heating. Srly winds will get really cranked
up after sunrise with an increasing low-level jet moving over the
area. Regional 88Ds show our expected squall line getting fired
up over nern/cntl TX at this time - timed the line into KBPT by
late morning, then ewd through the remaining terminals through the
afternoon hours. Winds shift wrly behind the line along with
rising/diminishing ceilings.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Active weather day expected across the area with approaching
strong dynamic system moving across the region today. First of all
did go ahead and issue a wind advisory across South Central
Louisiana into portions of Central Louisiana where the low level
jet will be most pronounced with good mixing. It will be quite
breezy elsewhere ahead of the frontal system, but at present winds
not forecast to be as strong as in the advisory area.

As the lift begins to increase late this morning into the
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will become more likely
through the day and culminate into a squall line along the
dryline/frontal boundary. Conditions do appear more favorable for
severe thunderstorms today than this time yesterday and SPC
expanded the risk areas across all of the forecast area with
moderate risk now for Central Louisiana. See SWODY1 from SPC for
more specific information.

Once the front passes, showers and thunderstorms will quickly come
to an end this afternoon and evening. In the wake of the front
cooler temperatures and dry weather will prevail until early next
week when moisture begins to increase ahead of the next frontal
system that is expected to approach the area around the Tuesday
time frame. Guidance is still all over the place on this will play
out but chance of showers will continue through the remainder of
the forecast period.

MARINE...
A plume of moisture moving over the coastal waters this morning
looks to initiate another round of dense fog where the coolest
water temperature remain. In addition winds will increase late
morning especially in the offshore waters and across the eastern
zones. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible from late
morning into the afternoon and evening. Winds will switch to
offshore and will remain strong enough for Small Craft Advisory to
continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  47  65  43 /  90  10   0   0
LCH  78  49  70  45 /  90   0   0   0
LFT  80  50  67  45 /  90  40   0   0
BPT  76  48  68  45 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ029-032-033-
     042>045-052>055-074.

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ435-450-452-455-470.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
326 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-172030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
326 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible. Otherwise, hazardous
weather is not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A robust cold front is expected to move through the region on
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along
the front, and strong to severe storms are possible. Tornadoes,
hail, and damaging wind gusts are all potential hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-172030-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
326 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Light onshore flow becomes more moderate by early Wednesday ahead of
a cold frontal boundary advancing into the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with this from Wednesday into early
Thursday. Moderate offshore flow develops by Thursday behind this
cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1256 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

TXZ180-259-260-171830-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
1256 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL TYLER...NORTHERN
NEWTON AND EAST CENTRAL JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mt. Union, or near Kirbyville, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Kirbyville, Call, Burkeville, Farrsville, Magnolia Springs,
Mayflower, Mt. Union, Jamestown, Roganville, Stringtown, Bleakwood
and Wiergate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for southwestern
and west central Louisiana...and southeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3115 9367 3101 9354 3101 9357 3100 9358
      3097 9357 3096 9353 3092 9353 3091 9356
      3090 9355 3089 9357 3085 9356 3084 9357
      3083 9355 3081 9356 3080 9358 3078 9359
      3052 9399 3071 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 226DEG 56KT 3065 9399

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
122 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

LAZ027-030-TXZ259>262-171845-
Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-
Northern Jasper TX-Southern Jasper TX-
122 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD AND
SOUTHWESTERN VERNON PARISHES...CENTRAL NEWTON AND EAST CENTRAL JASPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 122 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Call, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Kirbyville, Merryville, Singer, Call, Bon Weir, Buna, Trout
Creek, Bivens, Old Salem, Wrights Settlement, Bancroft, Junction,
Stringtown and Bleakwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for southwestern
and west central Louisiana...and southeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3068 9327 3038 9393 3058 9409 3061 9408
      3101 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 237DEG 55KT 3055 9392

13