Small Craft Advisory 20, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1135 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...
For the 25/06Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Not much change in the aviation forecast from previous thinking.
Persistent east to southeast flow will continue to bring in low
level moisture with low clouds and showers under the cap. Ceilings
will be mainly at IFR levels during the overnight.

Surface boundary/dryline type feature will be moving across the
forecast area from mid morning to mid afternoon. A line of showers
are expected ahead of this boundary with ceilings remaining in the
IFR/MVFR range.

Behind the boundary winds will become west to west northwest
brining in drier air and clearing out of the low clouds and
showers.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/

UPDATE...
Radar showing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms lifting
northward through the region this evening in conjunction with a
warm frontal boundary also retreating back to the north. Expecting
something of a relative lull overnight, with PoPs increasing
closer to daybreak ahead of a cold front advancing from the west.
Much of the area remains in a Slight Risk for severe weather with
this front. That said, CAMs this evening aren't too bullish on
abundant convection earlier on, due in part to a slowly eroding
cap. Best convective chances likely will be in the eastern half
of the CWA where the cap may have a bit more time to erode prior
to FROPA. Still, provided the capping issue can be overcome,
forecast parameters will be favorable for a strong to severe storm
or two with ample shear/instability and modest mid level lapse
rates.

Per usual, only minimal updates to the inherited gridded forecast
to account for trends and short term guidance.

50

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/

UPDATE...
A coastal flood advisory has been issued along the coast. Actual
tide readings are between 1.5 and 2.0 MHHW due to the persistent
moderate easterly flow working in conjunction with the Ekman
spiral to produce elevated tides. Tide levels are expected to
begin to fall overnight as the astronomical tide cycle enters a
low tide.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Showers currently lifting back to the north across the area this
afternoon as the frontal boundary moves back to the north. This
activity will continue to lift north through the night and should
exit most of the forecast area sunrise tomorrow.

Then a low pressure moves to the north of the forecast area a cold
front will swing through the area tomorrow bringing another round
of showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. The area east of
the Sabine River is still highlighted in the slight risk area for
severe thunderstorms. Winds will also be gusty at times on
Thursday. The showers and thunderstorms will clear the region by
tomorrow night.

Moisture will return on Saturday with some showers and
thunderstorms possible for mainly central Louisiana. With better
chances on Sunday as front pushes back to the south. Models begin
to diverge around Monday and forecast becomes muddled but will
continue slight to chance pops across mainly the northern portions
of the forecast area.

Did contemplate a coastal flood advisory, however the guidance has
it peaking at this time at the coast and dropping off for tonight
and tomorrow as easterly winds become more southerly.

MARINE...
Will continue the SCA mainly for growing seas in the outer waters
tonight and winds and seas on Thursday. The advisory may need to
be expanded back to the north tonight or tomorrow but opted to
hold off for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  77  50  78 /  70  60   0  10
LCH  67  79  54  80 /  40  50   0  10
LFT  67  78  57  79 /  60  50   0  10
BPT  66  79  55  79 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ052>054-
     073-074.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ215.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Thursday evening for GMZ435-
     450-452-455.

&&

AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
314 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-252015-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
314 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Yesterdays front to retrogrades back inland, shower and thunderstorm
activity expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Slight risk for severe weather during the day on Thursday.
Series of disturbances expected through the rest of the forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ470-472-475-252015-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
314 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Series of disturbances expected through the rest of the forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-252015-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
314 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal lakes and bays of
the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Small craft advisory in effect until 7pm.
Possible extension likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Series of disturbances expected through the rest of the forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ450-452-455-252015-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
314 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Series of disturbances expected through the rest of the forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.