Heat Advisory 1, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
240 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Monday]...
High pressure will firmly grip the area today with strong
subsidence across southeast Texas and southwest...central
Louisiana. The eastern periphery of the upper level high
may not have such a grip across the extreme eastern part
of south central Louisiana but likely not to see much there
either. The story today will be the warmer temperatures and
heat advisory conditions likely to develop around noon for a good
part of the area. Interior southeast Texas and perhaps a bit of
west central Louisiana will have low enough dewpoints to remain
under the 108 degree Heat Index Value threshold. However...
elsewhere...should see some Heat Index Values approaching the 108
to 112 degree range at least in some part of each county or
parish. The Heat Advisory will expire at 6 pm. Again...little
chance of rain anywhere to help cool things down so mighty
uncomfortable outside this afternoon. Drink plenty of fluids if
outside today and move to cool indoor areas frequently to avoid
heat sickness.

Temperatures will slowly cool off this evening and with near
or slightly above normal temperatures expected. The upper level
high is expected to move a little further to the west on Sunday
which should allow for more easterly flow aloft and that will mark
the transition to increasing moisture and less subsidence.
Therefore...Sunday afternoon should begin to see a bit more shower
and thunderstorm activity across our eastern areas of south
central and central Louisiana. Heat advisory conditions don't look
quite as good on Sunday with the northeast part of central
Louisiana possibly reaching heat criteria of 108. Will need to
evaluate later this afternoon or tonight to see if we need to
issue for that area Sunday. It will be close so not fully confident.
There likely will be more cloud if convection gets going and that
would ease the heat stress or heat indices.

Monday brings even better rain chances as the High shifts further
to the northwest. This will lead to the beginning of increased
rain chances for all of Louisiana with an uptick across southeast
Texas.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Friday]...
Upper level ridging will break down at the beginning of the period
with the center of the upper level ridge located over the Southern
Plains retrograding back to the Mountain West. This will allow an
increase in moisture profiles across the region with precipitable
water values back up to at or above 2 inches.

Disturbances will also rotate around the upper level ridge and
across the forecast area. The combination of these disturbances and
adequate moisture will lead to decent rain chances with the best
chance and coverage during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will be mainly near what to be expected during the
summertime with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid
70s.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure across the northwest gulf waters will likely hold
today through Sunday with perhaps a few showers or thunderstorms
slipping into the extreme eastern coastal waters along and west of
Vermilion Bay today and again on Sunday. Light onshore flow this
morning will become variable this afternoon and perhaps a bit
more offshore flow on Sunday. The start of the new week through
the middle of next week shows high pressure aloft shifting to the
west and northwest which will allow for increased shower and
thunderstorm activity with variable perhaps some gusty winds and
high seas in and around storms. Otherwise...variable flow is
expected to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  98  76 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  94  76  95  77 /  10   0  10  10
LFT  95  76  95  77 /  10  10  30  10
BPT  95  74  95  75 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ028-029-032-033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
248 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-242000-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
248 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
ending around sunset with skies clearing in south central Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon and evening hours many days. A few storms may
produce heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

Additionally, a slight warmup in temperatures is expected, and
afternoon heat index values in many locations will exceed 100 F and
range from 103 to 107 degrees. If you are outside remember to remain
well hydrate and take frequent breaks. Heat exhaustion can present
it's self quickly.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-242000-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
248 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible. Cloud to water lightning
and locally gustier winds / rougher seas will be possible near
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible many days through next
week. Cloud to water lightning and locally gustier winds / rougher
seas will be possible near thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.