Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
246 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

The main concern in the short term forecast is continued rainfall
into this evening associated with a cold front passage, which may
become heavy at times. The pattern aloft consists of a narrow ridge
centered over the Mississippi River Valley, while a trough is in
place over the western CONUS with an upper low centered over Utah.
At mid levels, a shortwave trough extends south from the Dakotas
into the Nebraska Panhandle, moving east. A surface cold front is
moving in from the northwest and has already cleared a large portion
of the forecast area, bringing rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Behind the front, mid-level support via the shortwave trough has led
to additional rainfall. Isolated showers may remain possible behind
the front into the evening due to this trough, but the greatest
possibility for thunderstorms will be along the front later this
afternoon and tonight as it extends from southwest into north
central Nebraska in an area of greater surface moisture. Given
southerly 0-6km bulk shear and the southwest/northeast orientation
of the cold front, training appears to be a possibility as the front
extends between southwest and north central Nebraska. This area is
expected to receive the most rainfall within the forecast area
with the heaviest rainfall between sunset and midnight. PWATs
between 1 and 1.5 inches in this area could lead to particularly
heavy rainfall, hence the WPC marginal excessive rainfall outlook
in that area. Flash flooding is not anticipated at this time due
to the drought and generally dry conditions. These storms will be
somewhat convective rather than stratiform in nature, with MLCAPE
between 1200 and 1800 J/kg. The cold front should exit the
forecast area overnight. Some postfrontal rain showers may linger
in north central Nebraska tomorrow morning, dissipating before
noon as the front continues to move southeast. Total QPF by the
end of the day Thursday is expected to be between 1 and 2 inches
through southwest and north central Nebraska.

Tomorrow will be much cooler than today due to the frontal passage.
Afternoon high temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 60s
across the area, slightly below average for late September. The
postfrontal skies should remain partly to mostly cloudy which will
keep temperatures on Thursday night in the lower 40s in the
Panhandle to the mid 50s in north central Nebraska, where cloud
cover will be the greatest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

On Friday, the upper low will dig further south into the Four
Corners states as the ridge over the eastern United States
broadens. The low will move northeast into Kansas/Nebraska on
Friday night into Saturday, bringing the next possibility of
precipitation to the region. Cloud cover associated with this
system may help slightly bring temperatures down to the upper 60s
on Saturday compared to the low 70s on Friday. Beyond Saturday,
rainfall is not expected for the rest of the weekend into early
next week as a ridging pattern builds back into the western United
States. Highs will be in the low 70s, which is about average for
early October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

A strong cold front crossing the region presents multiple
aviation weather hazards to western and north central Nebraska
through Thursday morning. Rain showers and thunderstorms will
become more widespread through the evening and night, particularly
for central Neb terminals, essentially from KLBF to KVTN and
points east. Expect MVFR cigs, locally IFR, and drops in visby in
heavier showers and storms. Southeast surface winds will
transition to north/northwest behind the front, and will be gusty
at times. Most precipitation should exit to the east by mid or
late morning Thursday, but low cigs may remain.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Meltzer
AVIATION...Snively

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