Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

The forecast concern in the short term will be the ongoing showers
and thunderstorms this morning.

A broad upper ridge extended across the Desert Southwest. A closed
low was located over Ontario, Canada with a broad trough across the
Great Lakes and Midwest.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of a
disturbance dropping southeast from southwest through central SD.
The 0-6km mean wind is west, and does veer west northwest toward
12Z. One cluster of storms over Arthur and Keith County has begun to
turn southeast and is favored to move southeast across portions of
southwest NE. Another small cluster of storms near Burwell has begun
to exit the FA. Latest mesoscale model trends indicates increased
coverage through 12Z this morning, then beginning to exit
southeastern zones after 15Z. Moderate instability exists, with
0-6km MUCAPEs ranging as high as 1500 j/kg. A few of the current
storms over Arthur and Keith County are strong to severe, and
could bring hail up to one inch in diameter to portions of west
central and southwest NE until mid morning. KLNX radar estimated
a 1/2 inch up to 1 1/2 inches where the stronger storms have
tracked. So, the potential for additional heavy rainfall continues.

Behind the disturbance, skies this afternoon will become sunny
all areas and highs are forecast to reach 83-86. Went slightly
warmer with highs near the latest CONSALL values. A weak front
will also move in turning winds to the north and northwest.

For tonight, clear skies with a strong thermal ridge overhead. Lows
in the mid 50s, with a strong inversion setting in.

On Labor Day (Monday), very warm temperatures aloft will mix to the
surface with a prevailing southwest wind. Much drier air will exist,
which has been absent for the past several weeks. Highs from 90 to
95 are expected. Minimum afternoon humidity to fall to 15 to 20
percent, especially west of Highway 83. With winds southwest to
around 10 mph, critical fire weather conditions are not expected,
although will be elevated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

The main forecast focus in the long term will be dry and warmer
temperatures through Saturday.

A cold front Monday night will temper highs Tuesday to upper 70s to
lower 80s.

Wednesday and beyond, a strong upper ridge over the Desert Southwest
is forecast to expand and center east of the Four Corners Region by
Thursday. A favorable setup for a strong warmup with highs by Friday
returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s.  A cold front Monday night
will temper highs to 80 to 85 Tuesday, warming back up to the upper
80s and lower 90s Thursday and Friday.

Dry conditions expected due to the upper ridge influence next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow morning.
Thunderstorms will continue to exit the area early this morning
and any locally MVFR CIGs/visibilities will improve to VFR. Winds
back from southerly to northerly through this afternoon as a weak
frontal boundary passes through, at around 5 to 10kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Brown

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
511 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-061015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
511 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021 /411 AM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this morning across portions
of the Sandhills and southwest in to central Nebraska. The
strongest storms will have the potential to produce hail, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions
of the eastern Panhandle, western Sandhills and far southwest
Nebraska. Humidity values will fall to near 15 percent Monday
afternoon. However, winds are expected to remain light from the
southwest.

Beyond Monday, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
537 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

NEZ059-051115-
Lincoln NE-
537 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Lincoln
County through 615 AM CDT...

At 536 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Maxwell, or 17 miles southeast of North Platte, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Maloney State Recreation Area, Jeffrey Canyon State Wildlife
Management Area, Cottonwood Canyon State Wildlife Management Area and
Vroman.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 198 and 207.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 64 and 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds at Lake Maloney should consider seeking
sturdy shelter until this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4094 10105 4111 10092 4098 10023 4081 10023
      4082 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1036Z 270DEG 24KT 4092 10058

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

NEZ059-071-051215-
Frontier NE-Lincoln NE-
625 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Frontier and southern Lincoln Counties through 715 AM CDT...

At 625 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Dickens, or 16 miles southwest of North Platte,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Eustis, Wellfleet, Moorefield, Dickens, Maywood, Cottonwood
Canyon State Wildlife Management Area, Hansen Memorial Reserve State
Wildlife Management Area, Jeffrey Canyon State Wildlife Management
Area, Vroman and Somerset.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 198 and 207.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 50 and 74.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4066 10063 4083 10115 4101 10101 4102 10045
      4099 10023 4070 10022 4070 10003 4060 9998
      4054 9998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1125Z 285DEG 31KT 4092 10090

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
700 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

NEZ059-070-071-051245-
Frontier NE-Hayes NE-Lincoln NE-
700 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Frontier,
southeastern Lincoln and eastern Hayes Counties through 745 AM CDT...

At 659 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Wellfleet, or 9 miles west of Curtis, moving southeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Eustis, Wellfleet, Moorefield, Stockville, Medicine Creek
Reservoir State Recreation Area, Maywood, Quick, Hansen Memorial
Reserve State Wildlife Management Area, Willow View Campground,
Freedom, Hayes Center State Wildlife Management Area, Marengo,
Orafino, Bluegill Haven Campground, Red Willow Reservoir State
Recreation Area and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 27 and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 10096 4088 10059 4083 10022 4070 10022
      4070 9998 4047 9998 4044 10000 4043 10009
      4035 10010 4035 10088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1159Z 311DEG 40KT 4062 10070

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
733 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

NEZ010-051315-
Holt NE-
733 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Holt
County through 815 AM CDT...

At 733 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of O'Neill, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Page, Scottville and Opportunity.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 322 and 323.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 194 and 197.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4232 9843 4265 9870 4271 9849 4260 9830
      4238 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 1233Z 317DEG 38KT 4258 9852

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Roberg

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