Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

In the short term, afternoon highs and shower and thunderstorm
chances will be the main concern. There was also some concern with
the low deck of stratus hindering high temperatures today, however
although the stratus has been slow to erode, it has finally eroded
and temperatures are expected to rise this afternoon to near
forecast, so decided not to lower temperatures.

As for thunderstorm chances today. The upper level ridge situated
over central Nebraska will slowly move eastward overnight. Areas
under the ridge such as southwest and central Nebraska will remain
capped through the afternoon and evening so storm development will
be lacking until late tonight. There will be sufficient moisture
available across the area with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
The upper level trof continues to push eastward with areas across
far NW Sandhills possibly seeing storm development as early as late
afternoon/early evening for this area. Across NW Sandhills will be
the best opportunity to see severe weather as well, however storms
are expected to be elevated with the main hazard being hail. CAPE
values will be around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. There is also the potential
for heavy rainfall across NW Sandhills as there is the potential for
training of storms in this area.

Overnight the LLJ will strengthen and will help with shower and
thunderstorm chances increasing across western and southwest
Nebraska spreading eastward overnight and becoming widespread.  The
slow progression of showers and storms could lead to some areas
seeing half an inch to around an inch of rainfall across central and
north central Nebraska as well. Precipitation will continue through
Thursday, which could affect daytime highs. Did keep temperatures
warmer in the west where, precipitation will end earlier and the
area will see mostly sunny skies. Across north central and central
Nebraska did keep temperatures cooler with highs only in the upper
70s to near 80s as showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger
through the morning.

A cold front will push through the area on Thursday and could have
the potential to see more convection re-develop in the late
afternoon/evening, however it looks to mainly be the far eastern
portion of the forecast area where re-development may occur.
Potential for severe weather will be low, but nonetheless there is a
marginal risk.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

Another SW trof will move into the area on Thursday with
the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening. The best chance for storms will be across
western Nebraska. After Friday, rain chances diminish for the next
several days with a dry weekend expected. An upper level High
develops across the southwest CONUS with northwest flow aloft across
the central CONUS. High Pressure begins to slowly spread eastward
with western Nebraska on the fringes and temperatures expected to
warm up Sunday and Monday into the upper 80s to low 90s for western
and southwest Nebraska. Slightly cooler temperatures will remain
across north central Nebraska where cooler air will infiltrate the
central and eastern portions of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

VFR conditions are expected initially at the terminals until late
this evening. Isolated convection beginning to develop near AIA
will continue to expand in coverage late this evening through
midday Thursday. Expect MVFR to periodic IFR conditions in
thunderstorms owing to low CIGs and heavy rain reducing
visibility. Though convection should wane in intensity Thursday
morning, periodic heavy rain will continue to lead to degraded
flight rules at the terminals before clearing the area by late in
the period. Rain and thunderstorms are not expected to be without
break, but the timing of these breaks is low confidence at the
moment.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...NMJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
416 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022130-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
416 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 /316 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the panhandle this
evening and transition northeast and east into western Nebraska
overnight. Some storms may be severe this evening with large hail
and localized heavy rain which may lead to flooding. The greatest
threat for severe storms is west of a line from Springview to
Chappell.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Showers and storms will continue Thursday across much of the
area, slowly tapering from west to east. A few storms may become
strong across central Nebraska during the afternoon and evening
hours. Heavy rain is possible as well and may lead to flooding,
especially east of highway 83 from North Platte to Valentine.

The next round of thunderstorms moves in late Friday, starting
with the panhandle, then expanding to the rest of the forecast
area overnight. At this time, there is a marginal threat for
severe storms in the eastern Nebraska Panhandle.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
638 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021

NEZ004-020130-
Sheridan NE-
638 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Sheridan County through 730 PM MDT...

At 638 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Wild Horse Butte, or 7 miles northeast of
Alliance, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Smith Lake State Wildlife Management Area and Krause Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 250 between mile markers 24 and 36.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 96 and 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4265 10277 4250 10233 4207 10267 4208 10270
      4209 10271 4209 10274 4244 10275 4244 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 200DEG 32KT 4218 10276

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC