Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

A weak area of low pressure will track from north central Nebraska
this morning to northwest Iowa by this afternoon. This will drag a
weak cold front across the area this morning, but that front pretty
much washes out by this afternoon as it moves into eastern Nebraska.
Somewhat drier air will filter into the area behind the weak front
today, with dew points in the 40s across the Panhandle with 50s to
lower 60s across the rest of the area. Little focus for any
convection today with the lack of any low-level boundary etc., so
after any lingering convection exits the area early this morning the
current dry forecast through tonight looks to be on track.

Weather turns active again Saturday. A potent shortwave will be
digging southeast into Montana and Wyoming Saturday morning, and
then moving into the western Dakotas by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of
the shortwave, surface low pressure will deepen across the Nebraska
Panhandle Saturday morning. The low will migrate east-northeast
through the day and be located across far southeast South Dakota by
late Saturday afternoon. A cold front will surge into north central
Nebraska by afternoon behind the surface low. Appears there is some
threat for scattered late afternoon surface based convection along
the cold front, which should extend from near O'Neill to Thedford to
Sidney by late afternoon. The better chance for this occurring would
be across north central Nebraska where the stronger forcing aloft
will be located. Overall the deep layer shear does not appear overly
strong and mid level lapse rates are mediocre (6-7C). Still some
threat will be there for a strong or perhaps severe storm, with
damaging wind likely the main threat and a lesser threat of hail. An
uptick in thunderstorm coverage seems likely during the evening as a
strengthening southerly low-level increases and interacts with the
front which will be sagging southward into central and southwest
Nebraska during this time. A transition to more of a heavy rain
threat could occur during this time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

The Dakotas shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region on
Sunday. The training cold front will be located across Kansas with
surface high pressure to bring drier and pleasant conditions to the
area. Zonal flow aloft develops Sunday into Monday with the next
weak embedded shortwave to cross the area Monday into Tuesday. The
frontal boundary across Kansas washes out Sunday night with a rapid
return of gulf air (dew points 60s to near 70) returning to the area
Monday. Scattered thunderstorms could occur as early as late Sunday
night in a mid-level WAA regime developing Sunday night ahead of the
approaching weak shortwave. Some chance for rain will continue,
especially across northern Nebraska Monday and Monday night. By mid-
week upper level high pressure builds across the Southern Plains
with a deep trough developing into the northern Rockies. The ECMWF
has been indicating that a tropical disturbance will lift northward
into the desert southwest on the western side of the upper high
Wednesday night into Thursday. That moisture lifts northeast into
the Central and Northern Plains Thursday night into Friday, possibly
setting the stage for some locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

A small area of thunderstorms will exit northeast out of north
central Nebraska this morning. An area of low ceilings IFR is
occurring in it's wake (including VTN). These lower ceilings
should dissipate this morning with all areas VFR this afternoon
through tonight. Winds will be 10 kts or less through tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
333 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-280845-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
333 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 /233 AM MDT Fri Aug 27 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A cold front will approach the area Saturday, passing through the
outlook area Saturday night. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the front, mainly Saturday evening. Some storms may be
strong to severe. The greatest threat for severe storms is east of
a line from Chappell, to Hyannis, to Springview. Large hail and
damaging winds are the main threats. There is also a small threat
for heavy rain.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday night through Monday night,
mainly over northeastern portions of the outlook area. At this
time, the threat for severe storms is low.

Thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday. At this time, the threat for severe storms is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight across the
outlook area.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

NEZ006>008-010-271215-
Brown NE-Holt NE-Keya Paha NE-Boyd NE-
636 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Brown,
northwestern Holt, Keya Paha and west central Boyd Counties through
715 AM CDT...

At 636 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springview, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springview, Burton, Nets Peak, Thomas Creek State Wildlife Management
Area, Bobcat State Wildlife Management Area, Mills, Brocksburg and
Meadville.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 208 and 221.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 35 and 89.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4284 9914 4271 9991 4288 9998 4300 9956
      4300 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 1136Z 252DEG 32KT 4282 9986

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Buttler

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