Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
639 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

The primary concern for the short term revolves around the potential
for severe convection this afternoon and evening.

Currently, the area continues to sit in northwesterly flow aloft,
positioned between a high over the western CONUS and an upper low
over Ontario/Quebec. A shortwave trough embedded in the mean flow
continues to push southeast through the Dakotas and Nebraska this
afternoon. Convective initiation is now underway over the Black
Hills in southwestern South Dakota.

This convection initiating over the Black Hills will be the primary
focus for severe chances later this afternoon and evening. High-res
guidance remains in somewhat good agreement with this activity
expected to progress southeast in the mean flow into the
northwestern CWA. The background synoptic environment remains
supportive of strong to severe storms, with deep layer shear on the
order of 30 to 40kts. Lapse rates remain steep as well, and given
the multiple reports of severe hail earlier this morning, the
environment will continue to support large hail this afternoon.
Diurnal mixing continues over the Sandhills/northern Nebraska this
afternoon, and should promote a deeply mixed boundary layer
supportive of strong outflow winds as well. Storms should begin to
push into northern portions of the CWA, near HWY 2, around 4-5pm
CDT, and continue through much of the evening. Another area to watch
for development will be along a residual outflow boundary from
convection this morning draped across southwest Nebraska. Vertical
development in the cumulus field near this boundary has been limited
thus far, though trends will continue to be monitored. The
environment remains supportive of a strong to severe storm along
this boundary should one develop.

The development of a low level jet will help to sustain ongoing
storms overnight. Additionally, further development in association
with the LLJ could linger across central into north central Nebraska
into late tomorrow morning. Lingering elevated instability and steep
lapse rates aloft could lead to a few storms with marginally severe
hail.

For tomorrow, additional thunderstorm activity is possible across
portions of central and north central Nebraska in the afternoon
hours. Another weak upper wave is progged to drop southeast through
the area and could spark a few storms by late afternoon. Much like
today, lapse rates remain steep enough aloft to support a threat for
large hail. High-res guidance suggests the greatest risk will
remain near and east of HWY 83.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

An upper low is still progged to meander into the upper Midwest
early next week and keep a bulk of any precipitation to our
southeast. The upper flow pattern begins to transition to more zonal
by early week in the wake of this low. By midweek, flow looks to be
more southwesterly ahead of a stronger upper low entering the
Pacific Northwest. This will lead to good moisture advection into
the Plains, and will set the stage for the next good chance for
widespread precipitation. Some discrepancies remain in both
deterministic/ensemble guidance however recent trends have been for
a wetter system. These trends will be monitored, though confidence
is gradually beginning to build in a more widespread rainfall event,
with QPFs of 0.5-1.0"+ possible for much of the area. A cold front
will pass through the area in the Thursday/Friday timeframe and
could lead to a few days of below average highs into next weekend,
in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Radar trends and the latest guidance indicates trends for
thunderstorms will place bulk of activity near KLBF later this
evening so will include a tempo group and amend as needed.
Activity may skirt KVTN so will only include VCTS there. TAF sites
look to be dry after about Midnight and additional activity on
Sunday will be isolated and confidence is low so will keep the
latter part of the TAFs dry for now.

Expect the best chance for MVFR cigs will be west of highway 83
where rainfall is more likely, with VFR elsewhere. Will stay with
VFR in the TAFs and monitor cloud/cig trends.

Winds are quite gusty now but expect they will start to lay down
after sunset. Amplifying low level flow overnight will create a
bit of wind shear so will include a mention of LLWS at KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
308 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-152015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
308 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 /208 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will move southeast across
portions of western Nebraska through tonight. Some of the storms
may be severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
The area and timing of greatest concern lies generally along and
west of Highway 83 though midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening, some of
which may produce hail and strong winds.

Potential exists for widespread thunderstorm activity Wednesday
through Saturday. The severe threat is uncertain at this time,
although some locations may receive significant rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather or
rainfall amounts to the NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
549 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             16 S GORDON             42.57N 102.20W
08/14/2021  E1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   PUBLIC

            HAILED FOR ABOUT 15 MINUTES.

&&

JGOMEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
456 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEZ004-094-142345-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
456 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Cherry
and southeastern Sheridan Counties through 545 PM MDT...

At 456 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles southeast of Rushville, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Big Hill, Billys Lake, Wolf Hill and Argo Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of and north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4251 10232 4255 10208 4225 10194 4221 10231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 348DEG 9KT 4244 10220

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NMJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
501 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEZ004-142345-
Sheridan NE-
501 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Sheridan
County through 545 PM MDT...

At 501 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Hay Springs to 9 miles
southeast of Red Cloud Campground. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rushville, Hay Springs, Metcalf State Wildlife Management Area,
Intersection of Beaver Creek Road and White Clay Creek Road, Highway
250 crossing the Niobrara River, Intersection of Highway 87 and
Antelope Road and Walgren Lake State Recreation Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 74 and 93.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 32 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 10278 4289 10268 4264 10227 4227 10266
      4237 10275 4244 10275 4244 10277 4278 10277
      4279 10279 4284 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 326DEG 20KT 4282 10271 4260 10287

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NMJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
544 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEZ004-150030-
Sheridan NE-
544 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Sheridan County through 630 PM MDT...

At 543 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles north of Ellsworth, or 26 miles southeast of Rushville, moving
south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Watson Lake, Kennedy Lake, Wolf Hill and Argo Hill.

This includes Highway 250 between mile markers 4 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4245 10234 4245 10210 4210 10205 4210 10246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 002DEG 13KT 4236 10226

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NMJ

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