Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
638 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Noisy northwest flow pattern is underway across the cntl and nrn
High Plains. Some of the models appear to be over-forecasting the
shower and thunderstorm chances today through Sunday. The upper
level support for rain appears to be very weak and other than a
dryline across the Panhandle, no discernable sfc focus is shown in
any of the models.

The POP forecast leans on the short term model blend which is on the
dry side of the forecast envelop. It suggested mostly isolated POPs
today and tonight, and nearly dry conditions Sunday. This forecast
is wetter than the RAP model but drier than the NAM and HRRR models.
Rain chances this afternoon will rely on sfc heating. A weak warm
front and low level jet are the primary forcing tonight. Note the
RAP model shows 1000-2000 J/KG of elevated CAPE this afternoon and
tonight and a 30kt 500mb jet will be hanging out across wrn
Nebraska. This is the basis for the SPC marginal severe weather
threat. If not for the isolated storm coverage, this risk could be a
category higher according to SPC.

The temperatures forecast uses the short term blend plus bias
correction. The strong 30-40kt low level jet and increasing moisture
supports lows in the 60s tonight. Highs in the 80s to lower 90s are
in place today and Sunday. Barring significant storm coverage
tonight, the slight warming aloft Sunday supports highs a few
degrees warmer than today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

South winds continue through Wednesday and in combination with a
developing long wave trof across the nrn High Plains, deep
moisture will be in place for a potential significant rain event
either Wednesday night or Thursday. The ECM is slower than the GFS
and GEM. The rain forecast leans on the latter two models for
chance POPs Wednesday night.

The models are in very good agreement warming temperatures aloft at
h500mb to around -5C Wednesday and the deep southwesterly flow to
300mb would seem to reduce the hail and wind damage threat.
Nonetheless, this system is of interest to SPC.

Otherwise, a very modest warming trend should prevail through
Wednesday as h850mb temperatures warm only slightly. The models are
warming temperatures at h700mb to 14C-15C during this time but the
moist southerlies below this level will probably hold down mixing
heights. High pressure from western Canada will move in Thursday or
Friday should cool highs back into the 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through the morning across
southwest Nebraska. No impacts are expected to KLBF this morning. A
better chance of thunderstorms arrives this evening across much of
north central Nebraska. Some hail and gusty winds may be possible
with these storms. In addition, heavy rainfall may cause additional
reductions in visibility at both terminals in the evening.
Thunderstorms end by mid-evening giving way to a return to VFR
conditions across central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
333 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-150845-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
333 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 /233 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms are possible across much of north central Nebraska
this afternoon and evening. Strong to briefly severe storms are
possible of producing hail and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Near daily thunderstorm chances are possible through Friday.
Severe risk remains uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
707 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 AM     HAIL             2 N OGALLALA            41.16N 101.72W
08/14/2021  U0.75 INCH       KEITH              NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA MPING.

&&

BROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
716 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 AM     HAIL             4 E OGALLALA            41.13N 101.65W
08/14/2021  U1.00 INCH       KEITH              NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA MPING.

&&

BROWN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
744 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEZ036-059-141330-
McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-
744 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Lincoln
and southeastern McPherson Counties through 830 AM CDT...

At 744 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Sutherland, or 16 miles southwest of Tryon, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ringgold.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 206 and 215.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 11 and 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 10111 4143 10121 4160 10077 4133 10070
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 252DEG 18KT 4137 10115

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
735 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEZ057-058-141415-
Perkins NE-Keith NE-
735 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Perkins
and southeastern Keith Counties through 815 AM MDT...

At 734 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roscoe, or 9 miles east of Ogallala, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paxton.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 134 and
149.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4102 10160 4112 10159 4114 10128 4099 10128
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 274DEG 14KT 4109 10154

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snively

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
923 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 AM     HAIL             6 S ELSIE               40.77N 101.40W
08/14/2021  E1.25 INCH       PERKINS            NE   PUBLIC

            SIZE RANGED FROM NICKEL TO HALF DOLLAR. NO SIGNIFICANT
            WIND. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

NMJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
833 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NEZ057-058-141515-
Perkins NE-Keith NE-
833 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Perkins
and southeastern Keith Counties through 915 AM MDT...

At 833 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Roscoe, or 11 miles southeast of Ogallala, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elsie.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 135 and
141.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4104 10166 4116 10152 4098 10125 4092 10125
      4082 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1433Z 316DEG 11KT 4104 10154

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snively