Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
325 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

The 12z HRRR model near-surface smoke forecast suggests the thick
plume of trapped smoke across nrn Nebraska this afternoon will
drop south through swrn Nebraska tonight and continue moving south
into KS Saturday. This smoke will remain trapped in an inversion
below 700mb. Areas of smoke are in the forecast tonight and
Saturday for this event.

The severe weather forecast late this afternoon and tonight is
somewhat uncertain in regard to upper level forcing. Satellite
suggests the upper level disturbance which moved through SD last
night may have produced an area of high pressure in it's wake. The
next obvious upper level disturbance appears to be moving across
the Black Hills. The models are taking this disturbance into ncntl
Nebraska this evening.

Another area of interest is the wrn Sandhills. Visible satellite
shows a circulation across the wrn Sandhills and this is probably
the best force for storm development. Yet another disturbance is
near SLC but this is probably to far away to affect Nebraska this
evening.

Since all of these disturbances are subtle, the models have trouble
depicting heights falls. The disturbance across the Sandhills would
appear to be the best support for storm development.

A cold front has dropped into the Sandhills and ncntl Nebraska for
focus, moisture is plentiful and winds aloft are fairly strong, 30-
35kt at h500-h300mb. The lapse rates are not particularly steep and
this is a result of warm air aloft. The warm sector is quite robust
and deep layer shear is about 40kts along the focus- a sfc front
which is expected to be located across the cntl Sandhills east along
highway 2 and highway 91 across ncntl Nebraska.

The thunderstorm forecast leans on the short term model blend which
is fairly quiet until 7 pm CDT. Isolated storm development is
expected across the wrn Sandhills which becomes scattered to
numerous eastward into ncntl Nebraska this evening.

The primary severe weather hazards are wind damage across the
Sandhills and ncntl Nebraska with the potential for isolated tornado
development across ncntl Nebraska where moisture will be robust and
mixing heights will be lower. All of this storm activity should be
south of the region by Saturday morning. No other thunderstorm
development is expected through Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

There is little change in the extended forecast philosophy. The
subtropical high pressure ridge centered over Oklahoma will
retreat west through the Rockies and amplify. At the same time, an
upper level low will form across eastern Canada. This pattern
will set up a northwest flow across Nebraska. A fairly expansive
area of sfc high pressure will build down through Canada and into
the Midwest. The latest model blend suggested highs in the 80s to
near 90 with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s. This comfortable
weather will last Sunday through Wednesday. A modest warm up to
the upper 80s and lower 90s is predicted Thursday and Friday. This
is the result of an approaching long wave trof off the West Coast
sending a surge of hot desert air into the Rockies.

Rain chances are generally isolated; the result of weak disturbances
moving south-southeast off the Black Hills, the Big Horns and
Laramie ranges. WPC suggested total rainfall of less than 1/4 inch
Monday night through Friday. A dry forecast is in place Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible through this afternoon
into tomorrow morning across north central Nebraska and the
Sandhills, with conditions possible across southwest Nebraska
Saturday morning. Smoke near the sfc will effect visibility across
the Sandhills and north central Nebraska through today into
tomorrow morning. Smoke will continue to spread southward and
will effect visibility across southwest Nebraska overnight into
tomorrow. There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening into the
overnight, at this time the best chance for storms will be across
north central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
404 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-312115-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
404 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 /304 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms are expected across western, north central Nebraska
and the Sandhills. The greatest potential for severe storms are
expected this evening across the Sandhills and north central
Nebraska. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail,
damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and a tornado threat.

Locally heavy rainfall may also produce localized flooding
generally across north central Nebraska.

Surface smoke will impact visibility across western, north central
and southwest Nebraska through the remainder of the evening into
the overnight, with visibility less than 1 mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Surface smoke will impact visibility to 1 mile or less at times
through early Saturday afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday through Thursday. The threat for severe weather appears
low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More details can be found at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
221 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-311930-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
Including the cities of Gordon, Rushville, Valentine, Springview,
Spencer, Butte, Lynch, Ainsworth, Bassett, Rose, Oneill,
Atkinson, Oshkosh, Lewellen, Hyannis, Mullen, Thedford, Halsey,
Dunning, Purdum, Brewster, Taylor, Burwell, Bartlett, Ericson,
Arthur, Tryon, Ringgold, Stapleton, Broken Bow, Chappell,
Big Springs, Ogallala, Paxton, Grant, North Platte, Champion,
Enders, Imperial, Wauneta, Hayes Center, Curtis, Eustis, Maywood,
Cody, Eli, Merriman, and Kilgore
221 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 /121 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021/

...Wildfire Smoke from Canada and Western U.S. continues to
Affect Western, North Central and Southwest Nebraska...

Smoke and haze from the wildfires in Canada and the Western
United States will continue to slowly spread southward across
western, north central and southwest Nebraska. Areas of thick
ground smoke will be possible with visibility as low as 1 mile at
times. Smoke is expected to linger through early Saturday.

Those with health conditions sensitive to air quality should
reduce prolonged outdoor activity. Should air conditions worsen,
prolonged or heavy exertion should be avoided by those susceptible
to air quality issues. Others may want to consider the impacts of
the expected poor air quality when planning and participating in
outdoor activities and adjust as necessary.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
540 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

NEZ025-026-037-038-302330-
Custer NE-Thomas NE-Blaine NE-Logan NE-
540 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...NORTHWESTERN
CUSTER...SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 539 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Halsey, or 18 miles southeast of Thedford, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Logan,
northwestern Custer, southwestern Blaine and southeastern Thomas
Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central,
north central and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4176 10044 4182 10036 4180 9999 4155 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 308DEG 5KT 4177 10035

Gomez