Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

A disturbance within the subtropical plume rotating around upper
level high pressure, kicked off heavy thunderstorms early this
morning across portions of southwest into south central NE. Those
continue over portions of south central NE this afternoon. Rain
cooled air has rushed north and west from the thunderstorm complex
and has kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than expected.
Sinking air north and west of the complex has helped lower dew
points across portions of central into southwest NE. The higher
theta-e air has been pushed west into portions of the Panhandle and
west central NE. Conditions have become quite unstable in this area
and there is a CU field present, and an isolated thunderstorm could
evolve late this afternoon into early this evening within a
favorable upslope environment. Overnight tonight could see a little
patchy fog in localized areas like river valleys, but overall
confidence is not high and will leave out of the forecast for now.

Persistent south to southeast winds will continue Monday on the
backside of surface high pressure that is anchored across IA/MO.
Humidity will be rather high Monday with dew points in the mid 60s
to lower 70s before noon, and then tend to mix out some in the
afternoon. This mixing will again help keep any heat index readings
below Heat Advisory criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Tuesday through Thursday the center if the upper ridging becomes
established across the Central Plains. Very warm temperatures aloft
will accompany this with little or no chance for precipitation and
continued hot temperatures. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday could
be near or exceed 100F. In addition, deeper low-level moisture will
advect northward into the area from the Gulf. The humidity combined
with the hot temperatures will likely bring heat advisory criteria
both Tuesday and Wednesday. Friday into the weekend, the center of
the upper high drifts southward into the Southern Plains. Stronger
westerly winds aloft develop across the area as this occurs, and a
"ring of fire" type set up develops with increasing chances for
thunderstorms. It will also be several degrees cooler as
high temperatures settle back into the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Mostly quiet aviation conditions are expected over the next day as
high pressure remains over the region. The only major concern will
be some increasing winds at both sites on Monday afternoon. Gusts up
to 25 knots could be expected through the early evening before
diminishing after sunset.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
326 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-262030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
326 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 /226 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest Nebraska
early this evening, any storm that develops may produce locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Temperatures reach the upper 90s to 100 degrees on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Heat indices begin to approach 100 degrees both days.

There is an slight chance of storms Wednesday night through
Saturday. The risk of severe weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
618 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

NEZ094-260130-
Western Cherry NE-
618 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM MDT...

At 614 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southeastern Lacreek Wildlife Refuge, or 10 miles southeast of
Martin, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cody, Merriman, Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara River, Cody Lake and
Eli.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4299 10171 4300 10117 4278 10099 4271 10174
      4300 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 334DEG 18KT 4307 10158

Kulik