Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
635 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for
significant severe storms this afternoon and evening. A combination
of a stationary front, warm front, and dry line will all help to
initiate several storms across western and north central Nebraska
and into northern Kansas. Latest radar and satellite imagery shows
several isolated, but weak storms moving across north central
Nebraska at this time. In addition, the latest special 18Z sounding
shows moderate instability and a decent capping inversion. As a
result these storms do not appear to be strong right now, but some
clearing across southwest Nebraska is expected to add just a little
more instability and increase surface temperatures helping to erode
any cap. Therefore, any storms that continue to develop in southwest
Nebraska and the I-80 corridor are expected to develop more rapidly
and have the potential to become severe by late afternoon.

Heading into this evening, latest hi-res models show plenty of
instability across the region. CAPE values up to 2000 J/kg as well
as steep low level lapse rates of 7-9 C/km will combine to result in
a decent severe threat on this evening. Hail up to 2 inches in
diameter and wind speeds of 70 mph or greater should be expected.
There is also a chance for isolated tornadoes mainly across
southwest Nebraska. The tornado threat will diminish as the evening
wears on becoming mostly a hail, strong wind, and heavy rain event
by late evening.

After midnight, the majority of the best instability will have been
exhausted resulting in storms switching to a mainly heavy rain
threat. The best rainfall looks like it will fall just to the east
of our area. There, up to 2 to 3 inches of rainfall could be
experienced. Still, there's the potential for our far southeastern
counties (Frontier, Hayes, and southeast Lincoln) could still see
rainfall amounts up to 1 to 1.5 inches. While flooding is not a
concern at this time due to a quick storm motion, some localized
flooding may be possible especially if training of storms develops.

For Thursday, rain lingers across our eastern counties into Thursday
morning before completely pushing off to the east by the afternoon.
Weak ridging will then allow for quiet weather to return once again
for the end of the week. Cooler air also pushes in for the end of
the week with highs ranging from the mid 50s (across the north) to
the low 70s (south of I-80) on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Active weather will then continue this weekend as a series of
disturbances moves through the region. Thunderstorms are possible
through Monday especially in the afternoons and evenings when
instability is highest. At this time, the severe potential remains
uncertain, but will keep a close eye on this over the next few days.

Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler through the
weekend as well. At this time, high temperatures will remain in the
low 60s to low 70s through Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures will
remain steady in the 40s for most locations and into the low 50s
across the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across wrn and
ncntl Nebraska through 09z tonight. Areas of IFR/LIFR in low
ceilings is expected in the wake of the storm activity 09z-21z
Thursday, mainly affecting ncntl Nebraska. VFR is generally
expected 21z onward across wrn and ncntl Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-272015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
312 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 /212 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe thunderstorms are likely through the evening across all of
the outlook area. The greatest threat for severe storms is south
of a line from Hay Springs to Thedford to Burwell. Very large
hail greater than 2 inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts up to
70 MPH and isolated tornadoes are possible with the strongest
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Tuesday. At
this time, the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter groups across the eastern Nebraska Panhandle, Sandhills
and southwestern Nebraska, should be ready for activation this
afternoon and evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
832 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             NNW GRANT               40.85N 101.73W
05/26/2021  E1.00 INCH       PERKINS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MELTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
836 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             2 NE PALISADE           40.38N 101.09W
05/26/2021  U1.00 INCH       HAYES              NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
842 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

NEZ070-071-270215-
Frontier NE-Hayes NE-
842 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRONTIER...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN
AND SOUTHEASTERN HAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 842 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of McCook, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Eustis, Moorefield, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir
State Recreation Area, Maywood, Quick, Willow View Campground,
Freedom, Orafino, Bluegill Haven Campground, Red Willow Reservoir
State Recreation Area and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 27 and 50.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southwestern
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4070 10065 4070 9998 4065 9998 4035 10024
      4035 10103
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 230DEG 38KT 4038 10065

NMJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
852 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 SW ARTHUR            41.46N 101.84W
05/26/2021  E60 MPH          ARTHUR             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MELTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
853 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 SE ARTHUR            41.46N 101.54W
05/26/2021  E60.00 MPH       ARTHUR             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MELTZER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
855 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

NEZ058-059-069>071-270300-
Chase NE-Frontier NE-Hayes NE-Perkins NE-Lincoln NE-
855 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER...
SOUTHEASTERN PERKINS...CHASE...SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND HAYES
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT/900 PM MDT/...

At 854 PM CDT/754 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Elsie to near
Champion. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial, Hayes Center, Wauneta, Madrid, Elsie, Wellfleet, Enders,
Enders Reservoir State Recreation Area, Champion, Crete, Hamlet,
Grainton, Center Dam Campground, Hayes Center State Wildlife
Management Area, Marengo, Wanamaker State Wildfire Management Area,
Area A Campground and Church Grove Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 25 and 57.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 55 and 56.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT/100 AM MDT/ for
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4035 10175 4045 10192 4087 10153 4075 10070
      4035 10108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 303DEG 17KT 4080 10136 4044 10169

NMJ