Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

Deep southerly flow continues across wrn and ncntl Nebraska this
afternoon. A Pacific cold front has cleared the Colorado front range
and the Laramie Ranges triggering thunderstorm activity which will
carry east into wrn Nebraska this evening. There is also a small
zone of warm air advection across sern Colorado triggering storms
south of Pueblo Colorado. The storm activity across ern WY and Colo
should grow upscale into the deep moisture across wrn Nebraska this
evening producing at least scattered storms and a solid line of
storms appears likely north of Interstate 80.

A couple of hindrances may limit the magnitude of the severe
weather across wrn Nebraska tonight. Winds aloft, although very
strong, are unidirectional supporting storm splitting and the warm
air advection ahead of the Pacific cold front appears limited to
sern Colorado- aimed at nwrn KS and swrn Nebraska. The RAP model
suggests the shear is too strong to sustain supercells.

On the other hand, the RAP shows two distinct meso circulations
forming across swrn Nebraska and swrn SD which could maintain severe
storm evolution. These circulations are being fed by strong moist
low level winds below 700mb. There is also a well defined h700mb dry
slot or intrusion associated with the storms moving east through wrn
Nebraska and this should produce a cold pool and enhance wind damage
potential. So there are competing forces both in favor or in
disfavor for severe storm development. The severe weather forecast
follows the SPC which, given the strong backing low level winds this
evening, all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes are
possible.

The POP forecast leans on the short term model blend for likely to
definite pops tonight generally along and west of highway 83. East
of highway 83, chance POPs are in place. Some models like the ECM
and SREF weaken the storm activity quickly while other models like
the HREF and NAM maintain storm activity throughout ncntl Nebraska.
WPC suggested up to 1 inch of QPF tonight which locally, could
result in a few 2 inch totals. This is in line with the HRRR which
suggests a few HP storms which could produce a quick 1 to 1 and 1/2
inches of rainfall followed by additional rainfall from weaker storm
activity. All of this storm activity should be east of ncntl
Nebraska by 12z Monday with just and isolated shower chance in the
morning.

SPC has hung a marginal severe weather risk Monday afternoon and
evening across parts of swrn and ncntl Nebraska. This is the result
of the front hanging up across cntl Nebraska. A check on the RAP
model shows this front stationary late Monday but winds at the lower
levels are not backed. Thus the best severe weather potential would
appear to be just to the east of the front as suggested by the SPC.
For these reasons, just a slight chance of thunderstorms are in
place across parts of swrn and ncntl Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

An excellent opportunity for severe weather may present itself
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The NAM shows a warm
front lifting north through wrn Nebraska during the afternoon and
the GFS and NAM show westerly winds h500mb increasing to 40 to 50
kts. The NAM shows some sort of convective complex developing
across nwrn Nebraska by 00z which will likely move east and grow
upscale. Chance to likely POPs are in place Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday night.

Thunderstorms chances are in place next Saturday. The potential for
severe weather is uncertain given the distance time away from this
rain event. The rest of the forecast is generally dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

Multiple aviation weather concerns exist during the forecast
period, including severe thunderstorms, strong surface winds, and
low ceilings. A line of strong to severe storms will cross the
region this evening into tonight, which will be capable of very
large hail and damaging winds with gusts exceeding 50 kts. Ahead
of these storms, south/southeast winds will continue to gust
around 30 kts. In the storms wake, surface winds will lighten but
stratus clouds set in, especially in southwest Neb (KLBF). Expect
MVFR to locally IFR ceilings early morning, but should return to
VFR after daybreak.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
231 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-241945-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
231 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 /131 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms to develop in the
Panhandle and northwest Nebraska this evening. Additionally, there
is a Slight Risk for the rest of the Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska. This means the conditions are favorable for storms to turn
severe in both areas. The main impacts are expected to be strong
winds, hail, and heavy rain. There is a chance for an isolated
tornado as well, with the greatest possibility in the Panhandle.
Storms are expected to begin in the Panhandle, and move east through
the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Wednesday afternoon into
the evening. However, the potential severe impacts are currently
unknown.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
956 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NEZ070-240330-
Hayes NE-
956 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAYES COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 956 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
extending from Wallace to near Palisade. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hayes Center, Hamlet, Marengo and Hayes Center State Wildlife
Management Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4070 10126 4070 10078 4035 10078 4035 10123
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 272DEG 34KT 4067 10115 4037 10107

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1002 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NEZ005>010-240345-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Holt NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-Boyd NE-
1002 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...ROCK...
BROWN...NORTHWESTERN HOLT...KEYA PAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN BOYD COUNTIES
UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1002 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wewela to near Ainsworth to 9 miles
southeast of Elsmere. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ainsworth, Bassett, Springview, Stuart, Long Pine, Newport, Rose,
Burton, Hofeld Lake, Raven, Bobcat State Wildlife Management Area,
Twin Lakes State Wildlife Management Area, Willow Lake State Wildlife
Management Area, Thomas Creek State Wildlife Management Area, Duff,
Mariaville, Pine Glen State Wildlife Refuge, Antelope Peak, Mills and
Brocksburg.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 150 and 225.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 239 and 283.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 36 and 90.

LAT...LON 4295 9910 4236 9906 4210 9930 4210 10019
      4250 9993 4300 9997 4300 9965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 271DEG 34KT 4297 9982 4252 9978 4209 10001

Buttler

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1005 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SUTHERLAND              41.16N 101.13W
05/23/2021  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 1 INCH RAINFALL IN 15 MINUTES

&&

RLAMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1010 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW GRANT              40.88N 101.77W
05/23/2021  E2.50 INCH       PERKINS            NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ESTIMATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN VIA SPOTTER

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1014 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NEZ025>027-037-038-240400-
Loup NE-Custer NE-Thomas NE-Blaine NE-Logan NE-
1014 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOUP...SOUTHEASTERN
LOGAN...NORTHWESTERN CUSTER...BLAINE AND EASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1013 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles northwest of Brewster to 7 miles south
of Dunning to 6 miles southeast of Gandy. Movement was east at 30
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stapleton, Brewster, Arnold, Merna, Anselmo, Dunning, Halsey, Gandy,
Purdum, Victoria Springs State Recreation Area, Lillian, Logan,
Milburn, Milburn Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area, Fox
Bayou, Almeria Meadow State Wildlife Management Area, Walworth,
Hawley Flats, Shanklin Bluff and Tarboz Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 137 and 147.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 223 and 270.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 223 and 273.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 107 and 121.

LAT...LON 4208 9933 4168 9952 4140 9982 4141 10069
      4171 10039 4208 10032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 271DEG 25KT 4209 9997 4172 10009 4143 10034

Buttler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1019 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NEZ070-071-240400-
Frontier NE-Hayes NE-
1019 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRONTIER...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN
AND EASTERN HAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1019 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Curtis, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Moorefield, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir State
Recreation Area, Maywood, Quick, Willow View Campground, Freedom,
Marengo, Orafino, Bluegill Haven Campground, Red Willow Reservoir
State Recreation Area and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 27 and 51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4070 10092 4070 10009 4036 10009 4035 10092
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 219DEG 34KT 4060 10068

Snively