Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1206 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

The main concern in the short term continues to be the potential for
thunderstorms across the region late this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave will move across Nebraska today which will help trigger
thunderstorm development by late afternoon. Initiation will likely
be across the central Sandhills and storms will track southeast
across north central Nebraska through the evening. While CAPE values
are expected to be near or under 1000 J/kg, steep level lapse rates
combined with mild surface temperatures will help support a few
stronger to isolated severe storms. Strong winds will be the main
threat, however, some small hail up to an inch could be possible in
some of the stronger, mature storms.

Thunderstorms end by late evening with dry conditions returning for
Friday. Another round of afternoon/evening thunderstorms are
expected late Friday. Instability remains weak on Friday
afternoon/evening and therefore, not anticipating severe storms at
this time. A stronger storm with some moderate wind and hail under
an inch cannot be ruled out completely though.

Otherwise, mild temperatures are expected both today and Friday with
highs ranging from the low 70s across the north to the upper 70s
south of I-80. Overnight lows tonight will be affected by the
evening thunderstorms and cloud cover lasting into the early
morning. Where clouds can clear out quicker (across the northwest),
lows will drop in the upper 30s. Elsewhere, clouds stick around most
of the overnight hours and low temperatures will remain warmer in
the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

Active weather continues through the remainder of the extended
period as a series of disturbances moves through the region.
Thunderstorms are possible through mid-week especially in the
afternoons and evenings when instability is highest. At this time,
the severe potential remains uncertain, but will keep a close eye on
this over the next few days.

Overall, clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures near normal
through the extended period as well. At this time, high temperatures
will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s, struggling to rise above
the mid-70s. On the flip side...clouds will keep overnight low
temperatures above normal (low 40s) through mid-week remaining in
the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

VFR conditions will prevail across western and north central
Nebraska through most of the TAF period. There is a chance for some
lower CIGs for southwest to south central Nebraska terminals
early tomorrow morning which would result in MVFR conditions. This
is being monitored and will be updated if necessary. A few
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the mid to late
afternoon hours today and last into the evening. Confidence is low
on widespread coverage, and expecting more so scattered
precipitation. Winds will be locally gusty from the south during
the day today, especially across southwest Nebraska with gusts near
22 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Meltzer/Sinclair

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
132 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-141845-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
132 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 /1232 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
last into the overnight, some of which may be severe. The severe
weather hazards are wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to 1
inch in diameter. The area of greatest concern is south of Highway
20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

More thunderstorm chances are possible across west and north central
Nebraska for the weekend through early next week. For tomorrow, the
main risk will be strong winds and possibly hail. For Saturday, the
risk of severe weather appears low. For the rest of the outlook, the
risk for severe weather uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
304 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

NEZ005-094-132045-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
304 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 304 PM CDT/204 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles east of Medicine Lake, or 33 miles west of
Valentine, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Merritt Reservoir, Schoolhouse Lake, Steer Creek Campground and
Anderson Bridge State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 97 between mile markers 109 and 129.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4268 10133 4287 10124 4280 10072 4252 10080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 285DEG 15KT 4275 10119

Jurgensen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
212 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021

NEZ094-132100-
Western Cherry NE-
212 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 212 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Medicine Lake, or 39 miles northwest of Mullen, moving
east at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sevenmile Hill, Round Lake and Speckel Meir Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4243 10164 4260 10157 4253 10107 4226 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 286DEG 14KT 4250 10152

Jurgensen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
217 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021

NEZ004-022-023-132100-
Sheridan NE-Grant NE-Garden NE-
217 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHERRY...
NORTHWESTERN GRANT...NORTHEASTERN GARDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 217 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellsworth, or 27 miles east of Alliance, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ellsworth, Ashby, Bingham, Patterson Lake, Herman Lake, Finnegan
Lake, Dominick Lake, Swede Lake, Jerry Lake, Kincaid Lake, Kennedy
Lake and Wild Horse Flats.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 250 between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 110 and 138.

LAT...LON 4212 10243 4212 10204 4210 10204 4209 10190
      4184 10192 4194 10246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 278DEG 14KT 4202 10235

Jurgensen