Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1125 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

The main weather concern in the short term will be the strong winds
across the entire region. A deep upper level trough will dig south
into the south central Plains over the next couple days. As this
trough digs south and an upper level low pressure system deepens,
northwest winds will increase significantly across all of western
and north central Nebraska. Strong winds will continue through
Friday afternoon before diminishing Friday evening.

Over the course of the next two days, sustained winds will top out
at 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 to 70 mph. Current thinking is
that gusts that strong will not continue through this entire time,
but peak several times. The best times for locations to see these 60
to 70 mph gusts will be in the afternoons when daytime heating and
boundary layer mixing will help to mix down the stronger winds
aloft. Even in the off peak hours, gusts up to 50 to 60 mph are
still expected which may produce power outages and cause travel
difficulties.

An additional impact will also be seen across extreme north central
Nebraska as well with this system. Some light snow is forecasted in
this area (1.5 inches or less) tonight. While not a huge
accumulation of snow, the falling snow combined with winds up to 70
mph could result in whiteout conditions as well as blowing and
drifting snow. Travel across Boyd, Holt, and Wheeler counties may be
difficult tonight and those needing to travel through these counties
should allow for extra time and stay alert to the latest road
conditions.

Lastly, with the passage of the cold front yesterday evening
combined with cold air advection into the region pushing a much
colder airmass into the central Plains, temperatures and resulting
wind chills will be a concern. Current models suggest an 850mb
temperature surge of -6C to -10C into the region tonight (Thursday
night). This will allow surface low temperatures to fall into the
teens early Friday morning. While these lows are just about the
normal lows for this time of year, when combined with the extremely
strong winds, wind chill values will make it feel like temperatures
are in the negative single digits. Coldest wind chills will be
across the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills where clearing
skies will allow for radiational cooling to allow for any heat
acquired during the day to escape more rapidly.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

Quieter weather returns on Friday night as high pressure slowly
builds back into the area. Temperatures remain chilly for Friday
night (still in the teens) but with winds diminished, wind chill
values will only drop into the low teens to upper single digits.
Temperatures will then continue to climb through the weekend with
highs in the low to mid 40s by early next week. Highs will remain
steady in the 40s through mid-week.

The only potential weather system in the extended period is on
Monday as a trough digs south across central Nebraska. Confidence in
precipitation is low and therefore only put a slight chance pop
(under 25 percent) in the forecast. Will continue to monitor the
strength of this trough over the next couple days as models get a
better handle on the upper air environment.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

Strong winds continue to be the primary aviation weather concern
for western and north central Nebraska. A powerful low pressure
system is resulting in gusts to 50kts out of the northwest. A
stream of moisture works into north central Nebraska tonight,
which will lower ceilings into MVFR and may provide some light
snow showers. Expect brief significant visby reductions during
snowfall due to gusty winds, mainly around KONL, but possible as
far west as KVTN and KANW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Snively

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