Heat Advisory 4, NWS North Platte, NE

734 
WWUS73 KLBF 040809
NPWLBF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
309 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NEZ006>010-050100-
/O.CON.KLBF.HT.Y.0004.210704T1700Z-210705T0100Z/
Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-
Including the cities of Springview, Spencer, Butte, Lynch, 
Ainsworth, Bassett, Rose, Oneill, and Atkinson
309 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values around 100 degrees expected along and 
  north of Highway 20.

* WHERE...Keya Paha, Boyd, Brown, Rock and Holt Counties.

* WHEN...From noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

529 
WWUS73 KLBF 041929
NPWLBF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
229 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NEZ006>010-050100-
/O.CON.KLBF.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210705T0100Z/
Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-
Including the cities of Springview, Spencer, Butte, Lynch, 
Ainsworth, Bassett, Rose, Oneill, and Atkinson
229 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values around 100 degrees expected along and 
  north of Highway 20.

* WHERE...Keya Paha, Boyd, Brown, Rock and Holt Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1239 PM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

An upper level disturbance moving through WY this morning is the
basis for chance POPS late this afternoon and this evening affecting
areas along and west of highway 83. A weak frontal boundary draped
north and south across the Panhandle will act as a focus and the RAP
and NAM suggest 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE with precipitable water around
1.35 inches. The models suggest deep layered shear of 40 to 50 kts
calculated from the boundary layer to 300mb. The thinking is that
only the strongest updrafts will tap into the strong 300mb jet and
present severe weather potential; winds at 500mb are just 15 kts.
This thinking is backed by the HRRR which shows two clusters of
storms with tops around 45kft forming this evening across wrn
Nebraska.

The basic POP forecast leans on the short term model blend which is
backed by the HREF and NAMnest. All of this storm activity should
dissipate between 03z-06z.

Isolated POPs are in place Sunday afternoon associated with
instability and a weak frontal boundary across the Sandhills and
ncntl Nebraska. Winds aloft are very weak, 15 to 25 kts at h500 mb
and h300 mb, and the forcing aloft appears very weak, perhaps just a
weak wave moving south in the northwest flow aloft.

The temperature forecast today and Sunday leans on the bias
corrected short term model blend which is warmer than the guidance
blend but cooler than the RAP and HRRR by a couple of degrees. Given
the expected increase in temperatures and moisture Sunday, later
forecasts may include a Heat Advisory across parts of ncntl Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

Another significant rain event is expected late Monday afternoon,
Monday night and perhaps into Tuesday. The moisture and forcing
appear stronger with precipitable water increasing to over 1.5
inches and the GFS shows a distinct upper level low forming over
SD. Winds aloft a h500mb increase to around 30kts in the model
also. The model blended forecast approach suggested chance to
likely POPs across nrn Nebraska and this is backed by the GFS, NAM
and SREF. The ECM is similar but farther north across the
Dakotas.

The robust increase in moisture Monday will place 65F dew points
across ern portions of ncntl Nebraska and with temperatures in the
90s, heat advisory conditions may develop across parts of ncntl
Nebraska. All of this heat and humidity will be displaced south and
east Tuesday with the arrival of a strong Pacific cold front Monday
night. The thunderstorm forecast Wednesday and beyond is silent
except if isolated chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

VFR conditions are expected outside convection through the
forecast period. Breezy south winds should subside by mid-
afternoon for the terminals, with less than 20 knots expected
beyond then.

As for convection chances...high-based thunderstorms are forecast
to develop to the west and move east into the area by late
afternoon into the evening. This convection will be capable of
hail in addition to gusty erratic winds and heavy rain. At this
time, some uncertainty remains with how far east activity gets but
confidence is highest in impacts to VTN so will include in there
for now. Heavy rain is likely out of this activity which should
lead to the potential for brief MVFR visibilities. As for LBF,
weakening convection will approach late this evening though
whether actual impacts materialize remain in question so will
cover with VCTS for now with updates possible later.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...NMJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1054 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-041600-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1054 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 /954 AM MDT Sat Jul 3 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with the
best potential for this being west of a line from Hayes Center to
Bassett. The main impacts will be isolated large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm activity is
expected to diminish by late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Heat indices across north central Nebraska Sunday will climb to
around 100 degrees. Later forecasts may include a Heat Advisory
for this area.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast Sunday through
Wednesday with the greatest potential being Monday and Tuesday.
At this time the threat for severe weather remains uncertain,
however storms may contain locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte