Fire Weather Watch 9, NWS North Platte, NE

190 
WWUS83 KLBF 222019
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
219 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021

NEZ204-206-208-231030-
/O.UPG.KLBF.FW.A.0009.211123T1700Z-211124T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLBF.FW.W.0012.211123T1700Z-211124T0000Z/
Eastern Panhandle/Crescent Lake NWR-
Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest-
Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel R McKelvie National
Forest-
219 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 /119 PM MST Mon Nov 22 2021/

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a Red
Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday. 
The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...In NEZ204...Fire Weather Zone 204 Eastern 
  Panhandle/Crescent Lake NWR. In NEZ206...Fire Weather Zone 206 
  Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest. In NEZ208... 
  Fire Weather Zone 208 Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel 
  R McKelvie National Forest.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Weather conditions will be favorable for rapid fire 
  growth and erratic fire behavior. Fires may be difficult to 
  control.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NEZ209-231030-
/O.NEW.KLBF.FW.W.0012.211123T1700Z-211124T0000Z/
Loup Rivers Basin-
219 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a Red
Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* Affected Area...In NEZ209...Fire Weather Zone 209 Loup Rivers 
  Basin.

* Winds...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 16 percent.

* Impacts...Weather conditions will be favorable for rapid fire 
  growth and erratic fire behavior. Fires may be difficult to 
  control.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1125 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 313 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

The forecast focus in the short term will be the substantial warmup
on Monday, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions.

For tonight, surface winds return to the southwest and west. Lows
will again range in the mid 20s. Mid and upper level clouds will
increase with warm air advection aloft.

On Monday, a substantial warmup, as an upper level ridge builds over
the Intermountain west. A leeside surface trough will deepen as
westerly winds increase across western Nebraska. Highs will warm to
60 to 65 across the west and mid to upper 50s northeast. With
dewpoints ranging in the low 20s, elevated fire weather conditions
will develop with afternoon humidity as low as 15 to 25 percent
across the western half of the area. Winds will gust to 20 mph at
times.

Monday night, clear skies with a strong thermal ridge in place. The
upper level ridge will weaken and flatten out over the region.
Expecting a strong surface inversion, with lows in the upper 20s to
around 30.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

The main forecast focus in the long term will the potential for
critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday followed by a cooldown
Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day.

The upper level ridge breaks down on Tuesday. A pre-frontal trough
will extend across western Nebraska. While the surface pressure
gradient will be weak, stronger winds at H85 will exist over north
central and central NE, ranging from near 25 kts up to 35 kts.
Soundings indicate mixing to at least 825mb. Winds southwest to
west southwest across these areas with gusts over 30 mph at times.

In addition, much above normal temperatures are forecast Tuesday.
Highs were raised to the NBM 90th percentile from 66 to 71 degrees.
Still the potential for even warmer highs, as MOS guidance is a few
degrees higher. Will be monitoring Tuesday for possible critical
fire weather concerns as relative humidity values fall to near or
below critical levels and winds increase with gusts to 30 mph
possible mainly near and north of Highway 2. A Fire Weather Watch
may be needed for Tuesday.

A cold front will move into the area Tuesday night as the upper
ridge moves east and a longwave trough moves in. Cooler behind the
front Wednesday. Weak cold air advection Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Highs Wednesday will be from 20 to 25 degrees colder, ranging
from the low to mid 40s north to the upper 40s to near 50 south.
Lows Thanksgiving morning in the teens and afternoon highs on
Thanksgiving Day generally in the 40s, except near 50 far southwest.

Warming back up into at least the 50s Friday through Sunday. An
upper level ridge will persist across the western U.S. as an upper
trough persists across the Great Lakes and New England states.
Western Nebraska will be in the transition zone with a prevailing
northwest flow. Looks to be breezy each day, with above normal
temperatures. While dry conditions are currently forecast, there
will be an opportunity for precipitation Friday night. Upcoming
forecasts will evaluate if a low chance is needed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

Expect some broken ceilings around 20000 to 25000 FT AGL
overnight. Cloudiness should shift east and southeast of the area
Monday morning with mainly clear skies for Monday. Winds will
gradually shift around to the west or southwest at around 10 KTS
Monday morning, continuing into the afternoon hours. Winds will
then diminish to around 5 KTS after sunset Monday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
318 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-222130-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
318 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021 /218 PM MST Sun Nov 21 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Elevated fire weather concerns are possible across southwest
Nebraska Monday as humidity falls to around 15 to 20 percent in
the afternoon. Winds will be around 15 to 20 mph from the
northwest.

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
across much of western and north central Nebraska Tuesday
afternoon as afternoon relative humidity drops to 15 to 20
percent. Strong winds from the southwest with gusts around 25 to
35 mph are also expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte