Special Marine Warning 99, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1033 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends
westward across Florida and continues through the Gulf of Mexico.
This is producing moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and
surrounding waters. Despite a mid and upper level low moving
northwestward through the northern Bahamas with a subtle lower
level reflection, lower level moisture has decreased quite a bit
with the arrival of some drier air. Available CAPE is lower this
evening with some lower level inhibition. As a result, convective
coverage on local radars is quite a bit lower than last evening.
Most of the activity is relegated to the deep gulf waters and over
our eastern Florida Straits.

Short Term Update - The mid and upper level low will continue to
roll northwestward towards the central Florida coast through the
overnight and any lower level reflection will wash out as the
upper level low moves further into the ridge. Forecast soundings
and plan views suggest lower level moisture will increase
modestly and inhibition will weaken. The ridge will maintain
moderate easterly breezes, likely a touch of freshening.
Consequently, shower activity should trend upwards overnight. For
now, the current low chance PoPs appears to be on track. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 70s to near 80, with some places
experiencing some rain cooling. No update planned for the local
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
An Atlantic ridge across Florida will maintain easterly breezes
across Keys waters through the overnight period. Winds will likely
come up a bit over the next couple of hours. For this, a caution
will remain in place for the nearshore Gulf waters, Hawk Channel
and the Florida Straits.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and Marathon
terminals overnight and tomorrow morning. Dry conditions will
dominate overnight, with little shower or thunderstorm coverage
expected. Beginning tomorrow morning, the atmosphere begins to
moisten again, and rain chances will increase. This is reflected in
the terminal forecasts with the inclusion of vicinity showers
beginning at 10Z for both terminals. Surface winds will be from the
east near 10 knots, with occasional gusts around 15 knots.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....Devanas
Data Acquisition.....DR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
425 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-130830-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
425 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A Small Craft Advisory may be required tonight for the Straits of
Florida, Hawk Channel, and Bayside waters for easterly winds near
20 knots.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters today and tonight. The
primary thunderstorm hazards will be lightning strikes and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday through Wednesday and
isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night through
Sunday. The primary thunderstorms hazards will be lightning
strikes and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

NB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
436 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST          24.46N 81.88W
07/12/2021  M41 MPH          GMZ044             FL   C-MAN STATION

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 36 KNOTS, OR 41 MPH WAS RECORDED
            BY THE SAND KEY C-MAN STATION AT 420 AM EDT.

&&

JACOBSON